Commanders vs Eagles Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Heinicke Keeps Calling Samuel's Number

Monday Night Football belongs to the NFC East as the Washington Commanders visit the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10's finale.

These divisional rivals met back in Week 3, with former Eagles QB Carson Wentz at the wheel of the Washington offense... it didn’t go well. Wentz was sacked 1,000 times (give or take) and Philly walked off with a 24-8 victory as 6-point road chalk.

This time around, Week 10 odds have Philadelphia laying 11 points at home, but the Commanders are in a much better place. Wentz is out with an injury and beloved QB Taylor Heinicke is in, backed by a D.C. defense that has made this team competitive in recent weeks.

Washington enters Week 10 with three wins in its last four games (3-0-1 ATS) and is coming off a 3-point loss to the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Commanders at Eagles on November 14. You can also check out our best MNF prop picks as well as our Jalen Hurts spotlight prop picks. 

Commanders vs Eagles best odds

Commanders vs Eagles picks and predictions

Washington veteran receiver Curtis Samuel had seven grabs for 48 yards receiving the last time these teams met and will be vital to the Commanders' success in Week 10.

Samuel is starting to build better chemistry with QB Taylor Heinicke and has posted receiving efforts of 53, 50, and most recently 65 yards in the three games since Heinicke took over as the starter for the injured Carson Wentz.

Last week’s output was a bit weird, as 49 of those 65 yards came on a reckless bomb into triple coverage in which the game official took out one of the Vikings defenders and allowed Samuel to make the grab for the deep touchdown. 

While that bonkers play may take the shine off Samuel’s stats, it should also be noted that he wasn’t targeted once in the final 15 minutes of the game and finished with three grabs on four targets – or two catches for 16 yards if you take that lucky shot out of the mix. 

Offensive coordinator Scott Turner took heat for the Commanders’ play-calling in the home stretch vs. Minnesota, as Samuel and Terry McLaurin were both ignored on offense in that fourth-quarter collapse without a single target between the two of them. Turner took notes and is preaching consistency ahead of this primetime outing.

Samuel’s prop total for Monday Night Football sits as low as 39.5 yards in Week 10 – his lowest number since Week 1. But given the defensive setup for the Eagles, there’s a good shot he could eclipse this number and go Over his receiving yard prop for the fourth straight game.

Schematically, Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon leans into zone coverage to protect against the deep ball and keeps opponents in front of this very talented front seven. That means Philly will look to take away the speedy McLaurin, who had 102 yards through the air back in Week 3.

McLaurin will draw coverage from outside corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry, leaving more room for Samuel to work underneath on shorter routes into space. Samuel sees the bulk of his snaps out of the slot, and the Eagles just so happen to be down two slot corners heading into this game with Avonte Maddox and Josh Jobe out of action.

That leaves Josiah Scott as the next man up covering the slot. Scott was slowed by an ankle injury which limited him in practice Thursday and Friday and at 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, he’s undersized even against a 5-foot-11 and 195-pound Samuel.

Washington does have other receiving options back in the mix, which could take touches away from Samuel. Rookie WR Jahan Dotson is making his first appearance since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4 and TE Logan Thomas was back last week after missing nearly a month. However, Dotson hasn’t had many reps with Heinicke, and Thomas was targeted only three times for a goose egg in receptions in Week 9.

Game script also paints a potent picture for the passing props, with Washington pegged as an 11-point underdog and likely playing from behind for the bulk of this contest. That means a probable uptick in passing snaps for a playbook that has gone from throwing on 67% of snaps under Wentz to just 50.5% the past three games with Heinicke at the helm. 

My best bet: Curtis Samuel Over 39.5 receiving yards (-113)

Commanders vs Eagles spread analysis

The official Week 10 opening line hit the board at Eagles -10.5. Philadelphia is enjoying a mini-bye after beating Houston last Thursday night, extending their unbeaten mark to 8-0 SU on the season.

The Eagles did, however, fail to cover as 14-point favorites in that game – just the second time this team has failed to come through for bettors this season. The market is stacking up massive spreads against Philadelphia, which has garnered sharp and public money throughout the 2022 schedule.

That’s not to say this hefty spread isn’t warranted. The Eagles are the best two-way team in the NFL, boasting Top-5 grades in a number of offensive and defensive measurements, including No. 2 in points per play margin – behind only Buffalo heading into Week 10.

The Commanders pale in comparison on the offensive end, ranked out 27th in EPA per play on the year. And while having Heinicke has sparked some life with this group, his output isn’t that much of an improvement over what Wentz was producing before his injury. 

The Washington defense has kept the team competitive over the past month, with D.C. owning the 10th-lowest EPA allowed per play since Week 5. The Commanders are 3-2 SU with those losses coming by four and three points – most recently a 20-17 defeat to Minnesota last weekend, which pushed with the closing +3 spread.

DraftKings is reporting more interest in the underdog for Monday Night Football, with 59% of bets and 66% of handle backing the Commanders.

Covers Consensus is showing 58% of picks on the Commanders.

Commanders vs Eagles Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this NFC East matchup opened around 45 points and has slimmed to as low as 43.5 with play on the Under.

Their Week 3 meeting closed with a total of 47.5 points and with Washington showing major improvements on defense – especially the defensive line – this Week 10 number is trending significantly shorter.

The Commanders not only boast one of the best run-stop units in the NFL but have also been able to generate solid pressure on opposing passers without needing to bring extra pass rushers. Washington is allowing 21 points or less in each of its last five outings, finishing 1-4 O/U in that span.

Philadelphia has one of the most dangerous pass rushes in the league, as evidenced by the nine sacks the Eagles collected in the first meeting with Washington in Week 3. The Eagles also generate great pressure on opposing passers with the need to blitz and rank No. 4 in EPA allowed per play on the season.

The Commanders own a 3-6 O/U count on the year while the Eagles are 5-3 O/U. The forecast for Monday night is calling for clear skies but temperatures are expected to sit in the low-30s with wind gusts up to 10 mph for Lincoln Financial Field.

WynnBET is reporting 71% of bets and 95% of money banking on the Under on Monday night. Covers Consensus shows 63% of picks on the Over.

Commanders vs Eagles betting trend to know

Under head coach Ron Rivera, Washington is 5-8-1 Over/Under against NFC East competition since 2020. That includes a 0-2 O/U count in divisional games this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Eagles.

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