The Washington Commanders won their first playoff game since 2005, and the reward is hitting the highway for Motor City to take on the top-seeded Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the NFC Divisional Round.
This will be the third consecutive road game for Washington, while Detroit had the luxury of a bye during Wild Card Weekend. My early Commanders vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks expect Detroit to have its way with Washington and the score to go Under this sky-high 55.5-point total.
Commanders vs Lions predictions
Early spread lean
Lions -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn put on a weekly game-planning clinic throughout the regular season, and now they have the luxury of having watched Wild Card Weekend from the sidelines before hosting the inferior Washington Commanders.
Hat tip to the Commanders. Head coach Dan Quinn and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels have turned the franchise around, but the toll of playing the extra playoff game in addition to hitting the highway for a third consecutive week will prove to be too much.
Washington only put 23 on the board against a leaky Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, and the Commanders lack the game-breaking talent on offense to put enough points on the board to keep pace with Detroit.
On the flip side, I’m anticipating the Lions roaring up and down Ford Field just like they’ve done all season, and the Commanders don’t have the stop-unit personnel to quiet them.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff should have his full complement of weapons at his disposal, and among QBs with 250 passing attempts, he finished second in both completion percentage (72.4%) and yards per attempt (8.6).
Add the likelihood of David Montgomery (knee) returning vs. a Washington defense allowing the third-highest yards per carry (4.87) to backs along with the sixth-highest EPA per rush while ranking 29th in PFF run defense grade, and the Lions are set up to call their shot on whether to score quick with multiple explosive plays or churn the clock with a methodical drive to keep Daniels and the Commanders offense on the sidelines.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 55.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
This is an astronomically high total, and just a point short of the Week 18 number (56.5) between the Minnesota Vikings and Lions at Ford Field that Detroit won 30-9.
It’s also the highest total of the season for the Commanders, and they also went Under the number during Wild Card Weekend, with their 23-20 win going well below the 51.5 total.
Both teams have ample offensive firepower, and they both played to the Over during the regular season with Washington going 11-6 and Detroit at a 9-6-1 mark.
Still, I anticipate Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn taking away potential chunk plays to force the Commanders to throw underneath and lean on the ground game. It will result in Washington needing to sustain long drives to score touchdowns, and likely multiple stalled drives resulting in punts and field-goal attempts.
That’s an Under recipe, and especially with such a high benchmark to clear.
Detroit isn’t going to be cooled, but if the Lions can jump out to a multi-possession lead like I expect, then they can shift gears to slow the pace and run the clock. The Lions finished with the third-longest average drive and allowed the third-shortest during the regular season, and I’m anticipating them dictating the time of possession at home during this Divisional Round showdown.
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Commanders vs Lions live odds
| Commanders | Market | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| +8.5 (-110) | Spread | -8.5 (-110) |
| +360 | Moneyline | -480 |
| Over 55.5 (-110) | Total | Under 55.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of Caesars as of 1-13.
Not intended for use in MA.
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