The Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions face off on Saturday night with the O/U sitting at a whopping 55.5 for this NFC Divisional Round clash.
Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring shootout but my NFL picks are fading Detroit Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff on his passing yards prop. I'm also backing Commanders pivot Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin with my best free Commanders vs. Lions props for January 17.
Commanders vs Lions props
- Jared Goff Under 272.5 passing yards (-117 at Caesars)
- Jayden Daniels Over 55.5 rushing yards (-117 at Caesars)
- Terry McLaurin Over 68.5 receiving yards (-117 at Caesars)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Commanders vs Lions props
Prop bet #1: Jared Goff Under 272.5 passing yards
With David Montgomery returning to the Detroit Lions backfield this week, I'm reluctant to take the Over on Jahmyr Gibbs' rushing yards against a porous Washington run defense. It'll be tough to gauge what the snap share will be after Montgomery missed four weeks with a knee injury.
That said, I still expect a run-heavy approach from Ben Johnson, which has me fading Jared Goff on his passing yards.
Since Week 4, the Washington Commanders are seventh in the league in defensive dropback EPA and fourth in defensive dropback success rate. They also finished the regular season having allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (189.1). That number was suppressed because most opponents chose to run the ball against them, and I expect a similar gameplan from Detroit on Saturday.
Goff is an efficient and accurate passer but he seldom attacks downfield. He averages a pedestrian 6.8 intended air yards per throw and ranks 22nd in the league in pass attempts 20+ yards downfield. With fewer pass attempts for Goff and most of those throws coming underneath, take the Under on Goff's passing yards.
Prop bet #2: Jayden Daniels Over 55.5 rushing yards
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels was limited to 36 rushing yards in the Wild Card Round. However, he logged 13 rush attempts in that contest, which bodes well for his chances of eclipsing his rushing yards total this week.
Daniels finished the regular season with 891 yards on 148 carries for 6.0 yards per rush. He easily led the NFL in scrambles (78) and yards from scrambles (613), and he should have plenty of scrambling opportunities in this matchup.
The Lions are fourth in the league in pressure rate but have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game since losing Aidan Hutchinson in Week 5. They should be able to pressure Daniels but won't be able to bring him down, which will result in him escaping the pocket.
Detroit's defense has made major strides under Aaron Glenn but tends to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. They were 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs (454) this season and were 30th in that category (419) last year.
Prop bet #3: Terry McLaurin Over 68.5 receiving yards
If there was any question about what receiver Daniels would lean on in the playoffs, that was answered last week when Terry McLaurin hauled in seven receptions for 89 yards. He saw 10 targets in that contest, which was twice as many as Washington's second-most targeted player.
McLaurin is far and away Washington's best receiver and he was just named to his second Pro Bowl team after posting his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. The speedster should torch a vulnerable Detroit secondary that lost top corner Carlton Davis in mid-December and allowed a league-high 185.1 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
McLaurin has a 19.4% target rate against zone coverage with that number surging to 24.2% versus man. He should thrive against a Detroit defense that plays man at the highest rate in the league.
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