The Best NFL Betting Trends to Know for Championship Sunday

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders have been firing on all cylinders in crunch time, and Joe Osborne highlights their fourth-quarter success in his latest NFL insights.

Joe Osborne: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Joe Osborne • Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 22, 2025 • 15:09 ET • 4 min read
Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels looks to throw.

And then there were four!

An unlikely NFC Championship pits the surging Washington Commanders against the Philadelphia Eagles, followed by the Buffalo Bills travelling to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending champs in the AFC title game. 

Last week saw underdogs go a perfect 4-0 ATS on closing spreads. Taking a look at results through both rounds of the playoffs so far, Unders have been the standout bet as they’ve hit in seven of the 10 games so far.

With just two games to bet this weekend, betting options are drying up, especially compared to a typical week during the regular season. That said, my latest NFL betting trends hone in on two spots that have been hitting at a very high rate.

Best of luck this weekend! We'll run it back one last time for the Super Bowl.

Best NFL Conference Championship betting trends

Commanders vs Eagles

The trend: Washington is 10-2 to the fourth quarter Over in its last 12 games

Both teams rank first and second this season in fourth quarter scoring. Their first two matchups saw them combine for 28 fourth-quarter points in Week 11 and another 28 in Week 16.

Washington Commanders’ road games saw an average of 18.2 combined fourth quarter points. This game has a 4Q total of 13.5 points. 

See all Commanders vs Eagles trends for Conference Championship.

Bills vs Chiefs

The trend: The Bills are an NFL-best 15-4 to the Over on their team total this season

We go right back to the well with this one after it’s hit in both Buffalo Bills’ playoff games so far. While this game is different with it being on the road, that’s reflected in the number — as their team total is set at 23.5 points. 

When the teams met in Buffalo in November, the Bills dropped 30 points and they’ve scored at least 24 points in six of the last seven games between the teams. Buffalo has also reached at least 24 points in eight of its last nine playoff games.

See all Bills vs Chiefs trends for Conference Championship.

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Joe Osborne Senior Betting Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

An OG of gambling Twitter, Joe is an industry veteran who loves the entertainment aspect of the sports betting industry. His opinions are always backed by data and he enjoys digging into the numbers and coming up with interesting nuggets to share with sports bettors.

Joe takes a high-energy and fun approach to covering his favorite sports which include the NFL, MLB, UFC, NBA and NHL, and there’s no bet type he loves more than an NFL six-point teaser. Joe is the host of our daily sports betting program, Before You Bet, while he also leads our weekly UFC show, P4P Picks, and our 'Covers on the Ground' series where he's covered many UFC, NFL and NBA games in person. A monthly highlight for Joe is conducting interviews with UFC legend Georges St-Pierre ahead of every UFC PPV.

Outside of his work at Covers, Joe has appeared on many top media brands including ESPN Radio, Mad Dog Sports Radio, VSIN, TSN, and SportsNet. He always recommends not reading too much into narratives when placing your bets as those factors are already cooked into the lines set by oddsmakers.

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