Conference Championship NFL Parlay Picks: Reynolds Wrapped up by 49ers Defense

Last weekend offered both some NFL odds nail-biters and some statements in the Super Bowl odds markets as the Conference Championship odds were set.

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs had to reach deep, make some clutch plays, and even get a little lucky to make it to Championship Sunday. The Detroit Lions had arguably the most emotional win as they secured their first Conference Championship berth in three decades in front of their boisterous fans, and the Baltimore Ravens probably posted the most impressive score of all by beating the Houston Texans 34-10. 

I'll weigh recent results as well as season-long trends as I make my best NFL parlay picks for the AFC and NFC Championship Games featuring a slew of NFL player props. For more in-depth analysis of each contest, check out Jason Logan's Chiefs vs. Ravens picks as well as his Lions vs. 49ers picks.

Conference Championship NFL parlay picks

• L. Jackson o49.5 rush yds + Z. Flowers u49.5 rec yds + I. Pacheco TD = +600
  
  
• G. Kittle o61.5 rec yds + D. Montgomery o10.5 rush att + J. Reynolds u2.5 rec = +650

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best AFC Conference Championship SGP

Lamar Jackson Over 59.5 rushing yards

Zay Flowers Under 49.5 receiving yards

Isiah Pacheco anytime TD

+600 at BetRivers

We're getting the best value at BetRivers for this parlay with two alternate yardage lines.

I like the Lamar Jackson odds for him to use his legs early and often against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Baltimore Ravens signal caller figures to be under duress behind an offensive line that allowed the ninth-highest sack percentage in the league during the regular season. Jackson was dropped three times in the Divisional Round.

With the Chiefs recording the second-highest QB pressure rate in football this year, Jackson will likely embark on at least a handful of unplanned carries. The frontrunner in both the NFL MVP odds and the Super Bowl MVP odds is averaging a robust 5.5 yards per carry this year, not counting his 11-carry, 100-yard day vs. the Texans last Saturday.

If Jackson is running more and passing less, that could spell trouble for those backing Overs in the Zay Flowers odds.

Flowers has gone below 50 receiving yards in six of his last 10 overall, averaging 45.7 yards per game in that span. The Chiefs vs. Ravens weather report is calling for conditions more conducive to running than passing, and K.C. is among the best in the NFL at shutting down enemy wide-outs (fourth by yards allowed per game). 

Anytime TD backers in the Isiah Pacheco odds have cashed in five of the last six games he's suited up for, and he looks primed to add another score on Sunday. The Ravens rank toward the bottom in yards allowed per rush at 4.5, tied with the Chiefs for 26th in the NFL. 

I'm a bit concerned about the Chiefs needing to abandon the run if Baltimore jumps out to a big lead, but Pacheco should still get his carries around the goal line.

Best NFC Conference Championship SGP

George Kittle Over 61.5 receiving yards

David Montgomery Over 10.5 rushing attempts

Josh Reynolds Under 2.5 receptions

+650 at Caesars

The San Francisco 49ers' most obvious path to victory over the Detroit Lions is through the air, as the Lions rank 27th in passing yards allowed per game. This unit was torched for over 300 yards by both the Rams and the Buccaneers en route to the NFC Conference Championship Game. 

While the Brock Purdy and even the Christian McCaffrey lines for passing and receiving yards have inflated too far as a result, the George Kittle odds are still fair. Kittle has gotten to 62 receiving yards in eight of his last 12 games, including his 81-yard day vs. the Packers in the Divisional Round. 

Detroit is 25th in yards allowed per game to tight ends and surrendered 65 yards to Cade Otton last week (with another chunk play for him called back due to a penalty). 

Next, I'm taking advantage of a solid line in the David Montgomery odds at Caesars, as they're one of the few books that allow rushing attempt props in SGPs.

Montgomery's attempts line is set at 10.5, and regardless of game script, No. 5 has been getting his fair share of touches. Some might say more than his fair share, with Jahmyr Gibbs' usage being called into question repeatedly since Week 1. 

Montgomery averaged 16.4 carries per game in the regular season, excluding a Week 6 meeting with the Bucs in which he left early due to injury. Otherwise, he only missed hitting the 11-rush threshold in two of 13 starts. Even with Gibbs playing a starring role vs. Tampa last Sunday, Montgomery's number was still called 10 times after a 14-rush performance vs. the Rams.

Finally, I feel the Josh Reynolds odds are too optimistic and will fade his receptions prop. Since Week 7, Reynolds has gone below three catches in 10 of 13 games, including a 1-1 split in the postseason. He's averaging only 3.6 targets in that span, and his "questionable" injury status is not encouraging.

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