The NFL Conference Championship odds are hitting the board with just four teams left fighting for the Lombardi Trophy.
These will be the most heavily bet spreads and totals of the season, which means finding an edge starts with getting the best number for your opinion.
Here are my Bet Now, Bet Later lines and NFL picks for the NFC and AFC Championship Games.
Conference Championship bet now, bet later picks
- Commanders vs Eagles (-4.5): Bet Now
- Commanders vs Eagles (Under 48.5): Bet Later
- Bills vs Chiefs (Under 48.5): Bet Now
- Bills vs Chiefs (-1.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Commanders vs Eagles (-4.5): Bet Now
It’s an all-NFC East conference title game, with the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles playing for the third time this season. Look-ahead lines listed Philadelphia as a 5.5-point home favorite, but the official opener hit the board at Philly -4.5.
Some of that is the health of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, who battled through injuries in the snowy win over the Rams. Should those two keys be banged up, the Eagles’ powerful rushing game loses a lot of pop.
Philadelphia and Washington split their two meetings, but the Commanders’ victory was a 36-33 win at home in Week 16, which was helped by Hurts leaving early with a concussion.
Philadelphia is also a huge step up in defensive competition for the Commanders, who have defeated suspect stop units from Tampa Bay and Detroit. The Eagles have been among the better defenses in the league in the second half of the schedule.
Commanders vs Eagles (Under 48.5): Bet Later
The knee injury suffered by Jalen Hurts in the Divisional Round has seen some totals open shorter than the look-ahead O/U of 48.5 points. Hurts played through the pain but his usage in the rushing attack was non-existent after the injury.
I expect positive reports on Hurts later in the week and that will be the green light for Over bettors in the NFC Championship.
Washington just hung 45 points on Detroit, and the last time these divisional foes faced off, they combined for 69 points and flattened the closing total of 47 O/U in Week 16. I’m interested in watching the betting patterns and if Over money will push this closer to the key numbers of 50 and 51 points.
If so, I’m likely coming back on the Under. Not only can the Eagles run the ball against the Commanders, who gave up 201 yards on the ground to the Lions, but Vic Fangio’s defense is a massive step up from injury-depleted Detroit and a soft secondary in Tampa Bay.
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels had mixed results in his two matchups with Fangio’s tricky schemes in the regular season. The rookie was checked to 191 yards in the first meeting and while he threw for 258 yards and five touchdowns in the second run-in, he did throw two INTs. Daniels had a completion rate short of 65% and a passer rating of 93.0 against Philly.
The Eagles don’t want a shootout with the chaos-loving Commanders, so if you like the Under, wait and see if the total ticks up closer to kickoff.
Bills vs Chiefs (Under 48.5): Bet Now
The Kansas City Chiefs put forth a piddly 4.2 yards per play in the win over the Texans, and outside of the Mahomes-to-Kelce connection, KC didn’t show much on offense. The champs needed the defense and special teams to make big plays to keep them in Saturday’s Divisional Round win.
That 23-14 finish played Under the closing total of 41.5 O/U, and Kansas City has been pumping out the Under results in recent weeks, boasting a 1-6 Over/Under count in their last seven overall. In fact, the Under is 3-6 in the Chiefs’ last nine home postseason games.
The Buffalo Bills took a ground-centric approach against Baltimore in the Divisional Round, handing off more than 30 times to grind out possession and control the tempo. The Bills did the same in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. That game finished with 51 collective points and went Over a closing total of 47.5 O/U.
Look-ahead lines have this game with a total of 47.5, and openers are hitting the board at 48.5 points. I'm grabbing the Under now, on the other side of the key number of 47 O/U.
Bills vs Chiefs (-1.5): Bet Later
The narrative coming out of the Divisional Round is that the referees bailed out the Chiefs. On top of the KC offense putting in a ho-hum day and getting outgained by Houston, the path is there for plenty of support for the Bills.
While there were some questionable calls, folks seem to forget just how disruptive the Kansas City defense and special teams were. The Chiefs recorded eight sacks, gave up only one touchdown, and blocked a field goal.
The early vig on Buffalo +1.5 is as high as -115, and that could signal a move to +1 if early support shows on the Bills. Buffalo will be the public darling of the AFC title game, and at this stage in the playoffs, the money coming from casual bettors actually outweighs the action from sharps.
If you like the Chiefs, pump the brakes and see if you can get this +1, PK, or maybe... just maybe, Chiefs as home underdogs later in the week. Maybe.
Not intended for use in MA.
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