Conference Championship weekend is here, with a battle between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and an AFC Showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
The upstart Commanders have been an Over bettors dream, and my NFL picks are expecting that trend to continue. However, despite the Chiefs and Bills boasting two of the best quarterbacks in the world, I'm leaning towards the Under in their clash.
Here are my best Conference Championship Totals bets for Sunday, January 26.
Conference Championships totals bets
- Commanders vs Eagles Over 47.5 (-110 at Caesars)
- Bills vs Chiefs Under 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Conference Championships Over/Under picks
Commanders/Eagles Over 47.5
Thanks to Jayden Daniels and an explosive offense that ranked fourth in EPA/play, the Washington Commanders made the playoffs despite sitting 22nd in defensive EPA.
That sensational offense and subpar defense were on full display last week as they upset the Lions 45-31. The Commanders allowed 521 yards in that game but had 481 yards of their own, and a few key turnovers turned the tide.
There's some concern about betting the Over in this game with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, wide receiver A.J. Brown, and tight end Dallas Goedert all nursing lower-body injuries. That said, they'll still be able to run the ball against a Washington squad that allows a whopping 138.9 rushing yards per game.
The Eagles run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL and has been dominant in that area thanks to 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley and an offensive line stacked with Pro Bowlers. While Philly's passing attack was limited by the heavy snow last week, it should be able to open up this week with temps above freezing and clear skies.
Philadelphia has an elite defense, but Daniels is tough to gameplan against. When these teams faced off in Washington a month ago, Daniels led the Commanders to a 36-33 victory by rolling up 339 total yards with five touchdowns.
We also saw the Rams move the ball down the stretch last week when they employed a no-huddle offense to keep Philadelphia's stop unit on its heels. Washington played a league-high 62% of its snaps out of no-huddle during the regular season, which was more than twice as much as the next-closest team.
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Bills/Chiefs Under 48.5
It seems like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills get in shootouts every time they meet in the playoffs, but the weapons on both sides have been downgraded this year. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are arguably the two best QBs in the world, but their downfield threats aren't what they used to be.
Mahomes ranked 41st out of 43 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards (6.3), with the Chiefs relying on shorter passes to move the sticks and control the clock. There was some optimism their offense would open up with guys like Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown returning from the IR, but that hasn't been the case.
The Chiefs mustered just 212 yards and 4.5 yards per play last week but won thanks to their defense, which held the Texans to 14 points and sacked C.J. Stroud eight times. Meanwhile, the Bills were limited to 273 yards and 4.6 yards per play in their Divisional Round victory against Baltimore.
Buffalo's top WR is slot receiver Khalil Shakir who led the Bills with a modest 821 receiving yards during the regular. No other Bills wideout had more than 600 yards, and 37 of Shakir's 108 targets were behind the line of scrimmage, with another 48 traveling fewer than 10 yards through the air.
The Bills have been leaning on their ground game and are fourth in the league in rushing play percentage (49.4%) with that number surging to 57.7% over their last three games. They'll have a tough time moving the ball that way against the Chiefs who held foes to 4.1 yards per carry during the regular season.
With both offenses playing conservatively with plenty of short passes and few explosive plays, take the Under 48.5.
Not intended for use in MA.
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