With the NFL regular season coming to a close, what each team has to play for can vary quite a lot. But what doesn't vary is how much individual performances can matter towards contract incentives, a player's next contract, career milestones, and even NFL history.
Here are a few of the ones that are most worth keeping an eye on when looking at Week 15 odds.
Brock Bowers: Rookie reception record
When Puka Nacua reeled in 105 receptions last year and broke the rookie reception record, it was unfathomable that the record would be in danger the very next season — especially by a tight end.
Enter Brock Bowers, a truly generational prospect in a world where that phrase is entirely overused. The 13th overall pick of the Las Vegas Raiders has amassed a whopping 87 receptions already despite league-low quarterback play.
He needs just 19 receptions in the last four weeks to overtake Nacua in the record books, and his next three opponents have some of the league's worst secondaries.
Saquon Barkley: 2,000 all-purpose yards
When the Giants let their star running back walk, they believed they were making a monetarily responsible decision. But Saquon Barkley's season so far (1,890 yards, 13 touchdowns) has made him worth every penny of the $38 million the Philadelphia Eagles signed him for.
But there is an additional $1.5 million in incentives each year for Barkley, and while he is en route to hit most of them (1,500+ yards, Pro-Bowler, first-team All-Pro) there is one left that he needs to tie up. Barkley will earn an additional $250,000 if he can reach 2,000 scrimmage yards on the season, and needs just 110 to get there.
This week he has the Steelers, who have allowed 113.2 yards to opposing running backs this year.
Tony Pollard: A ways to go
Another running back that had a change of scenery this year was Tony Pollard, who inked a three-year, $22 million deal with the Tennessee Titans this offseason. While he has been arguably the lone bright spot of the Titans' offense this year, he is currently on pace to fall short of some incentives.
He needs 1,100 rushing yards (has 937), seven rushing touchdowns (has four), and 60 receptions (has 39) to hit some nice paydays.
He should clear the rushing yards one given that he has four weeks, but it will be interesting to see if new head coach Brian Callahan makes an effort down the stretch to help Pollard hit literal paydirt. It may be one of few gestures Callahan can do during this lost season to appease his locker room.
Zach Ertz: A return to form
Former three-time Pro Bowler Zach Ertz has failed to find success or a stable home in recent seasons but has finally found some stability with the Washington Commanders.
He's already hit three-year highs in receptions (52), yards (501), and touchdowns (four), but if he can keep going, he could also make a good chunk of change in the process.
Hitting 60, 70, and 80 receptions; 600, 700, and 800 yards; and six and eight touchdowns would net him $250,000 each.
With Washington fresh off a bye and knee-deep in the playoff-seeding race, there is no reason to believe Dan Quinn would shy away from their reclamation tight end.
Baker Mayfield: New contract, same incentives
When Baker Mayfield signed a one-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before last year, it was chock full of passing category-related incentives.
It worked so well for both sides that when the Bucs fully committed to him with a three-year, $100 million contract, they decided to keep those incentives in.
Mayfield is paid $500,000 if he ranks inside the NFL's Top 10 or the NFC's Top 5 in the following, and included is where he currently ranks:
- Passer rating: ninth in NFL, fourth in NFC
- Touchdown passes: third in NFL, first in NFC
- Passing yards: fourth in NFL, third in NFC
- Completion percentage: third in NFL, second in NFC
Geno Smith: Be the guy you were two years ago
When Geno Smith signed a three-year, $75 million deal this past offseason to stay with the Seattle Seahawks, the contract was not a prove-it deal but a prove-you-were-the-guy-you-were-two-years-ago-not-necessarily-last-year deal.
Smith can earn an additional $2 million if he outperforms five key performances from his 2022 campaign. In short, he is easily on pace to hit two of them (yards and wins), but is currently not on pace to hit three (touchdowns, completion percentage, and passer rating).
The last two are somewhat realistically attainable, but Smith would need 16 touchdowns in the final four games to be on pace with this 30 touchdown season from 2022.
