Cowboys vs 49ers Divisional Round Props: Prescott Punished by San Fran D

Sunday night’s Divisional Round nightcap between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys projects as the lowest-scoring and closest game of the weekend.

That could mean big things for the San Fransisco run game — and Jason Logan's Cowboys vs. 49ers picks shine a light on Deebo Samuel — but it’s also a rough matchup for the league’s most aggressive passer.

Here are my three best NFL prop picks for the Cowboys vs. 49ers.

Cowboys vs 49ers prop picks

• McCaffrey Over 64.5 rushing yards
• McCaffrey first-half touchdown 
• Prescott Over 0.5 INT

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cowboys vs 49ers Divisional Round props

Run CMC

Christian McCaffrey’s rushing total sits at 64.5 and is one of my favorite Overs this week.

This total closed at 80.5 last week when CMC rushed 15 times for 119 yards, including a 68-yard trot. Considering Brock Purdy threw more than expected, Elijah Mitchell gained just two yards on nine carries, and this is a pace-up spot for the home side, we should see plenty of McCaffrey on the ground behind one of the best run-blocking O-lines in football.

The drop in his rushing total is based mainly on the matchup vs. the Cowboys' fifth-ranked run defense by DVOA but they've faced a parade of awful rush attacks of late.

Last week, Dallas saw the Bucs’ league-worst rush attack. In Week 18, it was Sam Howell without Brian Robinson. In Week 17, Dallas faced Joshua Dobbs without Derrick Henry, and in Week 16, it was Philadelphia without Jalen Hurts.

Finally, in Week 15, the Jags gained 192 yards on 27 carries vs. this defense. If San Fransico wants to run the ball, it will, as no playoff team has been running the ball more than the 49ers over the last three games at 52%.

McCaffrey finished with 68 yards over expected on the ground last week, which was 40 yards higher than any other back in the Wild Card Round. With Deebo Samuel also taking attention on the end-around, it won’t be easy for the Cowboys to sell out vs. the running back.   

With a backup lacking gains, a potential neutral-to-positive game script, and a quarterback who could be scaled back vs. a tougher Dallas pass defense, McCaffrey’s floor is 15 carries and would only need 4.3 yards per carry to top this modest total of 64.5 yards, which is headed north. 

Christian McCaffrey Prop: Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Market shopping

Knowing the betting markets can be just as valuable/profitable as knowing the matchups and stats. When bettors are faced with heavy juice on big favorite touchdown props, head to the first-half markets.

Christian McCaffrey is -175 to score but +175 to do it in the first half at FanDuel. He’s recorded a touchdown in seven straight games with five of those coming in the first 30 minutes. It’s not a great sample size but the 49ers do score more in the first half than the second half (+1.9 points). 

In his 11 games since joining the 49ers, McCaffrey has 228 touches for 1,346 yards and 12 scores, and he’ll face a defense that hasn’t seen a decent run game since Week 15. 

I’m happy to run the first-half touchdown at +175 on the back of Kyle Shanahan’s scripted play calling. This offense is healthy and the combination of a reliable Purdy and the YAC monsters only helps CMC.

We aren’t getting much if any, added value in this market compared to the touchdown market but bettors who are late to this dropping market can get a longer price in the first-half markets which are available at FanDuel and bet365, to name a few popular books. 

Christian McCaffrey Prop: First-half touchdown (+175)

Picking your spots

One week after scoring five total touchdowns vs. a sub-.500 team, the Dak Prescott interception narrative has died down slightly. Now, Prescott goes from being a 2.5-point road favorite to a 4-point road dog vs. the best defense in football — that also ranks second in takeaways and first in interceptions per game at 1.2. 

Heading into that Wild Card game, Prescott had totaled 11 picks over his previous seven games. Now, vs. this Niners defense, he's being priced at -146 for one pick and +330 for two.

Since returning from injury in Week 10, Prescott has had five multi-pick games over his nine games before the playoffs. Those five games came against Tennessee, Jacksonville, the Giants, Green Bay, and Houston — four of whom rank in the Bottom 12 in success rate vs. the pass since Week 9. 

On the season, Prescott finished sixth in interceptable passes, at 28, per Player Profiler, despite missing five games. He ranks 25th in completion percentage when under pressure, and 39th in receiver target separation. Next Gen Stats also has him throwing the highest rate of passes into tight coverage (a defender within one yard of target).

Prescott’s interceptions are a string of repeatable bad decisions and now he faces one of the most difficult defenses in football.

I'll lay the juice on the Over 0.5 interceptions but also think the Over 1.5 INTs is live at +330. Some sharp books have this as short as -196.

Dak Prescott Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-148)

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