The NFL Wild Card Weekend continues on Monday night when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Cowboys are installed as short road favorites despite being the lower seed in this No. 4-versus-No. 5 matchup, but the betting markets may not be sold on America’s Team in this meeting with the GOAT.
Tom Brady-led teams are a perfect 7-0 straight up versus Dallas, including a Week 1 win for Tampa Bay way back in September. However, the Bucs haven’t been sharp all season and rank as the worst bet in the NFL at 4-12-1 against the spread.
I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this Wild Card edition of Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers on January 16.
Also, make sure to check out our favorite Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prop picks for Monday's game, as well as our Ezekiel Elliott spotlight props.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers best odds
Cowboys vs Buccaneers picks and predictions
Buccaneers’ veteran quarterback Tom Brady has had a bumpy season on and off the field, but he seems to be finding his swagger at the right moment for his favorite time of year...the playoffs.
Brady and the Bucs' offense have made a concerted effort to get right before the postseason. They have started to show flashes of the scoring potential we all know this lineup possesses after a season that consisted of them struggling to match their output of last season.
Tampa Bay scored 17 first-half points versus Cincinnati before collapsing in the second half in Week 15, erupted for 20 points in the fourth quarter to punch its playoff ticket versus Carolina in Week 17, and used a meaningless Week 18 as a walkthrough for 17 points in the first 30 minutes against Atlanta.
Dallas presents a tougher challenge on defense but has shown cracks against the pass in its last seven games. The Cowboys have slipped from a Top-6 team in EPA allowed per dropback and rival passer success rate in the opening 11 weeks to 17th and 22nd, respectively, in those measurements since Week 12.
Not only did Dallas struggle to slow opposing passing games, but it did so against a sub-par lineup of QBs, including the likes of Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Gardiner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, and most recently, Washington rookie Samuel Howell. Now the Cowboys have the tall task of facing a legend who has had the franchise’s number for the past 23 years.
Brady’s passing yards prop for this Wild Card game is sitting as low as 272.5 yards, slightly above his season average. It's still seemingly short, considering the improvements on offense, the downtick in Dallas’ defense, and also the fact that the Bucs earned a home playoff game in the opening round.
Tampa Bay is a different animal offensively inside Raymond James Stadium, owning the No. 7 offensive DVOA as a host compared to 27th on the road. Brady’s passing prowess also spikes in pirate waters, where he averages 6.9 yards per attempt versus just 5.7 on the road and owns a passer rating of 97.7 against 81.4 away from home.
Brady has topped the 272.5-yard mark in seven of his eight home stands (passed for 271 yards versus Green Bay in Week 3) and should be able to navigate an aggressive Dallas defense that relies on the blitz to drum up pass pressure. Brady is also notoriously savvy against extra pass rushers and faced the lowest pressure rate among starting quarterbacks this season (13.2% of dropbacks).
I strongly believe we could be in for a shootout on Monday night, considering the downturn in these two defenses. The Cowboys have a surplus of weapons as well, and Tampa Bay has been gashed for yards and points in the past five games.
Brady will add to his playoff resume with another performance to remember on Monday night.
My best bet: Tom Brady Over 272.5 passing yards (-113)
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Cowboys vs Buccaneers spread analysis
The Cowboys opened as 3-point road favorites for this Wild Card matchup, and it didn’t take long for the betting markets to sour on Dallas and slim this spread below the key number of a field goal.
Tampa Bay has drawn slightly more bet count and handle in the first few days of action, dropping this spread to Dallas -2.5. As of Friday afternoon, that remains the market consensus, with Cowboys -2.5 carrying a big price tag in terms of vig.
Looking at the overall body of work from these two teams, Dallas is the stronger side with a talent-rich offense and a disruptive defense that both left the Cowboys to rank among the elite teams in many advanced metrics.
That said, we’ve seen shaky play from both sides of the football in the home stretch of the season. Dak Prescott has been plagued with interception issues, and the defense has made some mediocre QBs look like studs with poor efforts defending the pass.
Tampa Bay has been inconsistent almost all year, but in true Tom Brady fashion, always has a shot to win in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers ranked among the best overall teams in EPA in the final frame, most notably the offense, which is No. 7 in fourth quarter EPA per play after sitting at 27th in the first 45 minutes of action.
Dallas’ best chance would be to jump out to a big lead and put this game out of reach come the fourth quarter. But given the tight spread, game script is calling for a close one and potentially more Brady magic in the postseason.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under number hit the board at 44.5 points last Sunday night and has slowly ticked up to as high as 45.5 points as of Friday afternoon.
Neither defense has performed well down the stretch, with Dallas taking a noted dip from the Top-6 in many advanced passing metrics to 17th in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 12. That’s led to a 5-2 Over/Under count in those seven games.
The Cowboys’ biggest strength has been its ability to cause chaos with a frenzied pass rush and a nose for takeaways. However, Brady is one of the best QBs under pressure and has only nine interceptions on the season.
The Bucs' defense has also slipped in the home stretch of the schedule. Tampa Bay sits 21st in EPA allowed since Week 14, which has given way to a 4-1 Over/Under mark in those final five contests. Part of that trend has been improved success from the offense, which has seen success in the passing game in spurts the past month.
According to DraftKings, bet count on the total is dead even, but the Under has drawn slightly more money at 54% of the handle. The forecast for Tampa is calling for clear skies, temperatures in the mid-40s, and light winds (12 mph).
Cowboys vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Tom Brady Over 272.5 passing yards
Tom Brady Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Tampa Bay Over 2.5 total touchdowns
The Bucs' offensive stats are skewed by the home/away split, and Brady pushes the ball downfield more inside Raymond James Stadium. We’ve seen him connect with his receivers for deep strikes in recent weeks, and Dallas has lost a step in defending the pass in the second half of the season.
These teams may have only combined for 22 points in their Week 1 matchup. We could have that same output come out of Brady and the Bucs in the first half on Monday night.
SGP Odds: +350 at BetRivers
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
Home underdogs in the postseason, which the Bucs are on Monday night, are 15-15 SU but 19-9-2 ATS since 2000. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, January 16, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers +2.5, 44.5 |
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