Things didn't go according to plan the last time the Dallas Cowboys played a prime-time game in The Golden State. Nevertheless, NFL odds have America's Team listed as the favorite tonight.
Dallas enters Week 6 still stinging from an embarrassing loss to the 49ers to face the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. The Cowboys will see familiar face on the opposite sideline, with former offensive coordinator and current L.A. OC Kellen Moore orchestrating the Chargers offense.
Los Angeles is fresh off a bye week, looking healthier and refocused as it goes for its third straight win after a 0-2 SU start to 2023.
I've sized up the MNF odds to bring you my best NFL picks for the Cowboys vs. Chargers on October 16.
Be sure to also check out our Justin Herbert odds and picks spotlight and MNF prop picks before kickoff!
Cowboys vs Chargers odds
Cowboys vs Chargers predictions
If you read my NFL Week 6 predictions column, you’ll see that I did take the points with the Los Angeles Chargers at +2.5 earlier in the week.
Rather than double-up on that opinion, I’ll tie another “best bet” to the Chargers. I’m looking at Los Angeles tight end Gerald Everett and his reception total for Monday Night Football.
Books have Everett’s reception prop parked at 2.5 catches vs. a Dallas Cowboys defense that was just bullied by rival TEs the past two games. Dallas allowed 49ers TE George Kittle to catch three balls for 67 yards (all three went for TDs) and gave up four grabs for 51 yards from New England TE Hunter Henry.
Everett put in a quiet Week 4 against the Raiders, with only two receptions for nine yards. However, he entered that game on the injury report after missing several practices due to illness. Given the Bolts have had two weeks off, Everett is feeling much better and his production isn't expected to take a hit like it would be if he was limited due to an actual injury.
His role in the passing offense is much bigger now that WR Mike Williams is out for the season and we saw an uptick in involvement in Week 3, with Everett targeted six times for six grabs and 30 yards in a win at Minnesota. He lined up 45 times in Week 4 and saw his route running percentage jump to 58% of dropbacks compared to just 42% on the season.
Herbert will look to Everett as a short-to-intermediate target and a quick check-down option when the Cowboys come with the heat. Dallas has had one of the more dangerous pass rushes the past three seasons and is blitzing at a higher rate in 2023.
Given Everett’s expanded role in the offense and the high Over/Under total for Monday Night Football (51 points) this game could turn into a shootout, offering more opportunities for the Chargers’ TE.
Player projections are all north of the 2.5 reception total, with the ceiling at 3.8 and my number panning out to just over three grabs. The Over is priced as high as -155 at some books, but you can find it cheaper at -130 over at FanDuel.
My best bet: Gerald Everett Over 2.5 receptions (-130 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Cowboys vs Chargers same-game parlay
Everett Over 2.5 receptions
Everett Over 25.5 receiving yards
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing TDs
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Everett’s role in the offense is expanding and he’ll be a quick release when the Cowboys come with pressure.
Everett’s player projections sit above this yardage total with a ceiling of 35 yards. He’s a YAC beast as well, so we’ll get bonus yards from the Bolts’ TE.
Dak got a lot of bad press after last week’s Sunday slaughter. Prescott has thrown for two or more TDs only once this season but faces a Chargers defense giving up big plays.
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Cowboys vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason odds had Dallas as a 2-point road underdog in Week 6 before the start of the season. The look-ahead line, before the Cowboys’ crushing loss at San Francisco last Sunday night, was at Dallas -2.5.
Following that primetime beatdown, oddsmakers opened the official Week 6 spread at Cowboys -2 and after bouncing between that number and -2.5, money started to come in on the Chargers. On Saturday, that spread was slimmed by a point, with most markets dealing Dallas -1.5 while a few sharper online shops cling to -2.
My NFL power ratings produced a very slim spread of L.A. -0.9 and Covers Consensus shows a slight lean to the host, with 53% of picks on the Chargers. According to BetMGM, 52% of the ticket count is on the Cowboys but 54% of the money wagered is on the Bolts.
The last we saw of Los Angeles, it was pushing as a touchdown favorite to Las Vegas at home back on October 1. The Bolts were able to salvage their start to the season after opening 0-2, knocking off the Raiders and edging the Minnesota Vikings in an ugly Week 3 outing.
Injuries plagued those first four weeks, and the Chargers are expected to have some top talents healed up and back on the field, namely star RB Austin Ekeler. He hasn’t played since Week 1 and his ability to rush and catch passes will test a Dallas defense missing significant standouts as well.
The Cowboys defense was exposed by the 49ers last Sunday night, after puffing up their numbers against much weaker competition through the opening five games.
Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is the best passer Dallas has faced this season. Herbert has had two weeks off to grow in Kellen Moore’s system while also get inside info on how to dismantle Dan Quinn’s vaunted defense — a group missing top CB Trevon Diggs and top rush stopper LB Leighton Vander Esch.
It may be up to the Cowboys offense to keep pace if the Chargers can poke those soft spots in the Dallas defense. The scoring attack was dreadful against the Niners formidable stop unit on Sunday Night Football, but gets an easier opponent in L.A.
The Chargers defense has been to blame for the team’s slow start, ranking 25th in EPA allowed per play through four games. However, this group does do well in some core situational stats, like stopping foes on third downs (31.91% — fourth lowest) and inside the red zone (50.00% — ninth lowest).
Monday’s Over/Under total opened at 50.5 points and has climbed to 51 as of Sunday morning. The Cowboys come into Week 6 having gone Over in three of five games in 2023 while the Chargers are 2-2 O/U.
Los Angeles is No. 4 in EPA per play with the passing attack doing the heavy lifting on offense. The return of Ekeler, however, will boost the Bolts’ ground game as well, facing a Dallas defense that allows the second-highest success rate (49.2%) on the ground.
Covers Consensus shows 59% of picks on the Over while BetMGM books are reporting 53% of ticket count and 54% of money also siding with a higher-scoring finish on Monday Night Football.
Cowboys vs Chargers betting trend to know
Since moving to Los Angeles (2017), the Chargers are 16-11 SU and 17-10 ATS in non-conference games. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Chargers.
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Cowboys vs Chargers game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Monday, October 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Chargers +2, 49.5 |
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