Sunday’s showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles has been two seasons in the making.
These NFC East rivals played their two scheduled outings last year, but both were forced to start a backup QB in one of those two games and it took a little shine off this classic grudge match.
The NFL Week 9 odds reflect healthy QBs for these high-powered offenses with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts headlining one of the most anticipated games of 2023. As it stands, Philadelphia is a 3-point home favorite across the market heading toward the weekend according to NFL odds.
I dig into the spread and Over/Under total for this huge game and give my best NFL picks for the Cowboys vs. Eagles on November 5.
Cowboys vs Eagles odds
Cowboys vs Eagles predictions
My first bet of Week 9 was grabbing the Philadelphia Eagles as 2.5-point home favorites when odds hit the board this past Sunday night. That spread quickly moved to Philly -3 and that’s where it sat the rest of the week.
My power ratings call for a line of Eagles -3.5 and while I believe Philadelphia can rough up the Dallas Cowboys, I’d rather keep it simple now that the line is sitting on the key number. And with that, I’m suggesting the Eagles moneyline.
Dallas has been able to win — and dominate — some very weak teams along the way. The Cowboys have shut down offenses led by the likes of Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones while also beating up broken teams like the two L.A. franchises (they also lost at Arizona).
However, we really did see the Cowboys’ colors in that bad loss at San Francisco back in Week 5, in which the 49ers flattened America’s Team on Sunday Night Football. The Niners are one of the best two-way teams in the NFL, ranked among the elite offenses and defenses, and the Eagles are even better.
Philadelphia does its best work at home and the Linc will be rocking come Sunday. The Eagles have only played three home games so far in 2023, putting up scores of 31, 31, and 34 in regulation, most recently knocking out the Miami Dolphins 31-17 in Week 7.
The Cowboys are also homebodies but find themselves not only away from home in Week 9 but playing outdoors for just the third time this year. Dallas’ offensive output spirals as a visitor, averaging 37 points inside AT&T Stadium vs. just 21.5 points per road game.
Defensively, Dallas just doesn’t look the same as past seasons. The Cowboys have made mediocre opponents look bad, often as those trailing foes are pressing with the pass, but overall this pass rush isn’t biting like it has and the secondary is susceptive to the long ball. That’s a big problem with the way Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is hurling the ball.
Hurts has connected on 20 passing plays of 25 or more yards (tied for second most) and sits fifth in completed air yards per attempt, helping Philadelphia rank No. 4 in EPA per play heading into Week 9.
Dallas has allowed plenty of home run shots to rival QBs this season, including 21 passes of 20 yards or more — five coming against the Rams last week. Hurts is by far the best quarterback the Cowboys have taken on and WR A.J. Brown is red hot and earning MVP chatter with his huge efforts.
A couple of big shots over the top and quick scores for Philadelphia would put the Cowboys right where the Eagles want them.
If Dallas is forced to pass, this Philly pass rush will be unleashed, and Dak Prescott hasn’t played his best away from Arlington. Prescott’s road stats aren’t pretty, owning a 76.8 passer rating with a 61.9% completion rate and a TD:INT count of 3:4.
Dak also sees a decline when playing in outdoor venues, with his completion percentage and accuracy taking a notable knock. He’s thrown 30 interceptions in 37 outdoor games (81% compared to 60% in dome/retractable venues).
My best bet: Eagles moneyline (-176 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs Eagles same-game parlay
Eagles ML
Hurts Over 1.5 TD passes
Pollard Over 51.5 rushing yds
50% boost available
Hurts has been absolutely locked in the past few games and his bum knee could have him running less and throwing more in the red zone — like last week.
Tony Pollard has projections as high as 75 yards with most models calling for more than 60 yards from the Cowboys RB.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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AJ Brown/CeeDee Lamb 200+ combined receiving yards (+230)
Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Bryce Young 6+ combined pass TDs (+230)
Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott to throw 4+ TD passes (+550)
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Cowboys vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
This Week 9 war was a circle game when the 2023 NFL schedule was released in the spring and the early offseason odds listed Philadelphia as a -3.5 favorite.
The look-ahead line before Week 8’s results listed the Eagles as field goal favorites. With Dallas dominating the L.A. Rams and Philly fending off Washington, the official Week 9 spread opened as low as Philadelphia -2.5. That spread under the key number didn’t last long and was gone by Monday morning, leaving books to hang a cheap Eagles -3 for most of the week.
As of Thursday morning, Covers Consensus is showing 62% of picks on the home side in Week 9 and my NFL power ratings produced a raw line (unadjusted for injuries, etc) of Eagles -3.43.
Once again, we find the Cowboys and Eagles atop the NFC pecking order, and the winner of Week 9’s meeting would have the inside track on the division. Dallas has dominated the recent series with Philadelphia, going 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 encounters.
Sunday’s Over/Under total was as big as 48 points in the offseason but the official Week 9 number hit the board at 46.5 and has climbed to 47 points, as of Thursday morning. According to Cover Consensus, 67% of early picks are on the Over.
Dallas is 4-3 O/U on the season, including a 2-2 O/U record on the road. This will be just the second open-air game for the Cowboys, who run the third-slowest pace in the NFL. However, that tempo has more to do with their one-sided results leading to slower run-heavy second halves.
Philadelphia also runs a very methodical pace, ranked 26th fastest in terms of second per snap. That again reflects the Eagles' ability to dominate the football in the second half and extend drives in clock-killing scenarios. Philly is 4-4 O/U in 2023, with a 2-1 O/U mark inside Lincoln Financial Field.
Cowboys vs Eagles betting trend to know
The Eagles have gone Over their team total in all three home games so far in 2023 and are 16-7 O/U versus their team total at home since 2021. Philadelphia’s TT is 24.5 points for Week 9. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Eagles.
Cowboys vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 5, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Eagles -3, 46.5 |
Cowboys vs Eagles latest injuries
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