A short week doesn’t give the Dallas Cowboys much time to lick their wounds after back-to-back losses before visiting the New York Giants for Thursday Night Football.
The Week 4 schedule sends Dallas to MetLife Stadium — a place it has dominated its divisional foe in past seasons — but my early Cowboys vs. Giants predictions explain why "America's Team" won't have the same luck Thursday night.
Find out more in my NFL picks for this September 26 affair.
Cowboys vs Giants predictions
Early spread lean
New York Giants +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The look-ahead lines set in the summer had the Dallas Cowboys as touchdown favorites in the Meadowlands.
But after another dreadful defensive showing from the Cowboys and the New York Giants putting on their best performance in a win over Cleveland, oddsmakers hacked as much as two points from that former stand.
Dallas opened between -5.5 and -5, and instantly, money on the home side slimmed this spread as short as -4. As of Monday morning, you can find this spread ranging from Giants +4 to as high as +5.
While most bettors think of key numbers like three, six, seven and 10 when betting football, a four-point spread is quickly becoming a very important line. In fact, 4.95% of NFL games have been decided by four points over the past four seasons — the fifth most common margin.
If you're looking to bet on New York, you’re going to want to grab all the points you can, and right now, that’s +5.
The Giants are coming off their strongest showing on both sides of the ball, beating Cleveland 21-15 as 6.5-point road underdogs. The Browns got seven of those points gift wrapped when New York muffed the kickoff to start Sunday’s game but held Cleveland to just six more points and only 217 yards on the day.
Offensively, quarterback Daniel Jones enjoyed his best performance and connected with star rookie Malik Nabers for big plays, including two touchdown strikes against a sound Cleveland defense.
The Cowboys’ stop unit is a shadow of itself to start 2024. After losing defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the job market, the defense looks lost under Mike Zimmer. Dallas has allowed 72 points the past two games and enters Week 4 ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 43.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
As mentioned, Dallas’ defense is a mess, and Zimmer doesn’t have much time to tighten the bolts before Thursday.
The Cowboys are blitzing at a high rate and have generated the top pressure rate in the league (39%) but are getting burned for that aggression. Dallas is giving up an average depth of target of 8.8 yards to opposing passers, manifesting itself into eight passing plays of 20 or more yards allowed, as well as a league-worst three plays of 40+.
Jones isn’t known for his downfield threat, but he hit seven different targets for 236 yards passing, including several big strikes of 20+ in Week 3. Nabers looks like the real deal, with 18 receptions for a collective 205 yards and three touchdowns in the past two contests. He'll give this Cowboys secondary fits for years to come.
As for the Cowboys attack, Dak Prescott is being held back by a talent-thin roster and little complement from the running game.
Dallas couldn’t budge Baltimore’s defence in Week 3 until late in the second half when it scored 19 points in the final frame after entering the fourth quarter down 28-6. Dak is still the best QB the G-Men have faced this season, so he'll test the validity of the New York defense.
Neither team is particularly strong at running the football, nor do they hand off much anyway. If Dallas’ defense can’t stop the bleeding, this could be a pass-happy shootout on Thursday night, which benefits the Over.
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Cowboys vs Giants live odds
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