Cowboys vs Giants Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 4

The Cowboys have owned the G-Men at MetLife in recent years, but a leaky Dallas defense will have its hands full against a New York offense finding its footing.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 23, 2024 • 10:12 ET • 4 min read
Malik Nabers New York Giants NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A short week doesn’t give the Dallas Cowboys much time to lick their wounds after back-to-back losses before visiting the New York Giants for Thursday Night Football.

The Week 4 schedule sends Dallas to MetLife Stadium — a place it has dominated its divisional foe in past seasons — but my early Cowboys vs. Giants predictions explain why "America's Team" won't have the same luck Thursday night.

Find out more in my NFL picks for this September 26 affair.

Cowboys vs Giants predictions

Early spread lean
New York Giants +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The look-ahead lines set in the summer had the Dallas Cowboys as touchdown favorites in the Meadowlands.

But after another dreadful defensive showing from the Cowboys and the New York Giants putting on their best performance in a win over Cleveland, oddsmakers hacked as much as two points from that former stand.

Dallas opened between -5.5 and -5, and instantly, money on the home side slimmed this spread as short as -4. As of Monday morning, you can find this spread ranging from Giants +4 to as high as +5.

While most bettors think of key numbers like three, six, seven and 10 when betting football, a four-point spread is quickly becoming a very important line.  In fact, 4.95% of NFL games have been decided by four points over the past four seasons — the fifth most common margin.

If you're looking to bet on New York, you’re going to want to grab all the points you can, and right now, that’s +5.

The Giants are coming off their strongest showing on both sides of the ball, beating Cleveland 21-15 as 6.5-point road underdogs. The Browns got seven of those points gift wrapped when New York muffed the kickoff to start Sunday’s game but held Cleveland to just six more points and only 217 yards on the day.

Offensively, quarterback Daniel Jones enjoyed his best performance and connected with star rookie Malik Nabers for big plays, including two touchdown strikes against a sound Cleveland defense.

The Cowboys’ stop unit is a shadow of itself to start 2024. After losing defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the job market, the defense looks lost under Mike Zimmer. Dallas has allowed 72 points the past two games and enters Week 4 ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 43.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis
As mentioned, Dallas’ defense is a mess, and Zimmer doesn’t have much time to tighten the bolts before Thursday. 

The Cowboys are blitzing at a high rate and have generated the top pressure rate in the league (39%) but are getting burned for that aggression. Dallas is giving up an average depth of target of 8.8 yards to opposing passers, manifesting itself into eight passing plays of 20 or more yards allowed, as well as a league-worst three plays of 40+.

Jones isn’t known for his downfield threat, but he hit seven different targets for 236 yards passing, including several big strikes of 20+ in Week 3. Nabers looks like the real deal, with 18 receptions for a collective 205 yards and three touchdowns in the past two contests. He'll give this Cowboys secondary fits for years to come.

As for the Cowboys attack, Dak Prescott is being held back by a talent-thin roster and little complement from the running game.

Dallas couldn’t budge Baltimore’s defence in Week 3 until late in the second half when it scored 19 points in the final frame after entering the fourth quarter down 28-6. Dak is still the best QB the G-Men have faced this season, so he'll test the validity of the New York defense.

Neither team is particularly strong at running the football, nor do they hand off much anyway. If Dallas’ defense can’t stop the bleeding, this could be a pass-happy shootout on Thursday night, which benefits the Over.

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Cowboys vs Giants live odds

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

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His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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