The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) have shown a good amount of promise lately and are coming off a convincing 36-22 win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
On Sunday, they will host the Dallas Cowboys (10-3), who narrowly escaped a terrifying upset at the hands of the one-win Texans. Nevertheless, the Cowboys are winners of four straight and still have an outside chance to catch the Eagles for the NFC's top seed.
Can Dak Prescott and the Cowboys avoid another near-defeat, or will Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars back them into a corner and keep their 2022 playoff hopes alive?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Jaguars on December 18.
Cowboys vs Jaguars best odds
Cowboys vs Jaguars picks and predictions
Prior to last week, there was an argument that the Cowboys were the NFC's scariest team heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
Wins of massive magnitude over the Vikings (40-3) and the Colts (54-19) were incredibly impressive, and it was difficult to poke holes in their offense or defense in each performance.
But last Sunday, the Cowboys faced a surprising challenge against the woeful Texans, and it took last-minute heroics to pull out a four-point win. Dak Prescott contributed two picks, and returner Kavontae Turpin chipped in another to help keep the Texans within reach.
Taking care of the rock this week will have to be of the highest priority, as the Jaguars were able to generate four turnovers against the usually sure-handed Titans.
However, unsustainable turnover generation can lead to misleading results, and it's unlikely that the 28th-ranked defense by DVOA is going to pose as big of a threat this Sunday as a result. That includes a third-worst pass defense that will have to keep the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and the newly acquired T.Y. Hilton at bay.
But the largest weight will be on Prescott's shoulder, who is usually one of the league's better quarterbacks at taking care of the ball. The Cowboys quarterback has now thrown five interceptions across the last five games, and there is certainly reason for concern.
Luckily for Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Dallas boasts a fourth-ranked rush offense by DVOA that can help open up the field for Prescott and company. The return of All-Pro Tyron Smith will also help the ground game and keep Prescott on his feet.
Smith had his first padded practice this week in over four months and is likely to play at right tackle in his return, with rookie Tyler Smith looking more than capable at left tackle this year.
The other side of the matchup is where Jacksonville poses a more realistic threat. Its offense ranks 13th according to DVOA, which includes an eighth-ranked pass offense.
Many of the Jaguars' recent additions have begun to bud, including last offseason's acquisition of tight end Evan Engram, who turned in a career-level effort last week with 11 receptions, 162 yards, and two touchdowns. Fellow offseason acquisitions Zay Jones (eight receptions, 77 yards, TD) and Christian Kirk (five receptions for 45 yards) also chipped in along the way.
However, there is a stark difference between facing Tennessee's below-average defense and facing the Cowboys' stout unit, which is chock-full of talent up and down the roster.
Everyone knows the stars (Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and Demarcus Lawrence), but Dallas has had its fair share of unsung heroes who have helped keep the Cowboys atop the league. That includes safeties Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson, as well as rookie cornerback DaRon Bland, who has been an unexpected surprise in the secondary.
The Cowboys simply have too much of a talent advantage on both sides of the ball to be just four-point underdogs. That number is also likely suppressed, coming off lopsided performances from both sides.
This week is a good opportunity to take advantage of that.
My best bet: Cowboys -4 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Cowboys vs Jaguars spread analysis
The Cowboys opened as six-point favorites, but after a week of action following an impressive showing from the Jaguars and an uninspiring one from the Cowboys, the latter has moved down to -4.
Dallas is 8-5 against the spread this year, tied for the fifth-best mark in the league. As favorites, they are 5-3, and as single-digit favorites, they are 4-1. The Cowboys have covered just once in the last three weeks but were double-digit favorites in all three games.
Jacksonville is 5-8 ATS this season, tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league. They are 3-2 as the home team and are an even 5-5 as single-digit dogs. The Jags have covered in three of their last five but had failed to cover in the previous five games beforehand.
The Cowboys rank third in net points per drive (points scored minus points allowed) and sixth in net yards per drive. The Jaguars rank 17th in net points and 21st in net yards per drive.
Cowboys vs Jaguars Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 46.5 but has since moved to 48 across most shops.
The Cowboys have gone 7-6 to the Over this year, including a 3-2 mark on the road. They have gone Over in three straight and in six of the last eight. However, in games with the O/U at or above 48, Dallas has gone 3-0 to the Under.
The Jaguars have gone 7-6 to the Over as well but have gone 5-1 to the Under at home. They have also gone Over in three straight but had gone Under in the previous five.
Jacksonville is 14th in the NFL in time of possession per drive on offense, and Dallas comes in at 22nd. On defense, Dallas averages the 13th shortest time of possession per drive, and Jacksonville ranks 25th.
Cowboys vs Jaguars betting trend to know
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Jaguars.
Cowboys vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date:Sun | Sunday, December 18, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Jaguars +6, 45.5 |
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