Two of the most successful franchises in NFL history face off at Lambeau Field on Sunday as the Green Bay Packers host the Dallas Cowboys.
The Packers have gone 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings, but with both sides trending in opposite directions this season, oddsmakers expect the Cowboys to prevail in Week 10.
NFL betting lines opened with the Cowboys as 4-point road favorites, with the Over/Under at 44.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Packers on November 13.
Cowboys vs Packers best odds
Cowboys vs Packers picks and predictions
It isn't easy to travel to Lambeau in cold weather and beat a future Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's tough to see the Green Bay Packers scoring enough in this one to cover the spread.
Aaron Rodgers has had little help, and Green Bay's attack has struggled immensely, with the Packers mustering just nine points against Detroit's pathetic defense last week. Now they face a Dallas Cowboys defense that is third in the league in EPA/play and ranks first in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Green Bay's defense has been solid against the pass but ranks second-last in the league in rush DVOA and will get gashed on the ground by a Cowboys team that has averaged 159 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry over the last four contests.
Expect Rodgers' frustration to grow with the Cowboys covering the spread and handing the Packers their sixth loss in a row.
My best bet: Cowboys -4 (-110 at bet365)
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Aaron Rodgers Over 299.5 passing yards and Over 1.5 passing TDs BOOSTED to +550 at Caesars! Bet Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Cowboys vs Packers spread analysis
The Packers are on a five-game skid, and last week's 15-9 defeat to the Lions might have been the ugliest loss of them all. The Packers did manage 389 yards in that contest, but Rodgers was picked off three times, and Green Bay went 0-4 in the red zone.
It's been an extremely frustrating season for Rodgers, who has one of the worst groups of receivers in the league. The four-time league MVP is averaging a career-worst 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He also might not have his blindside protector on Sunday with Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari questionable due to a knee injury.
That's bad news against a Cowboys pass rush that leads the NFL in pressure rate (30.5%) and sacks with 33. The Cowboys limit opposing quarterbacks to just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, and that dominant defense has powered them to a 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) start to the season.
That start is all the more impressive when you consider that they were missing franchise quarterback Dak Prescott for five games. Prescott returned to the lineup three weeks ago against the Lions, and while he looked a bit rusty, the Cowboys still cruised to a 24-6 victory. He looked like his old self the following week in a 49-29 rout of the Bears, and then the Cowboys enjoyed a bye last week.
The Cowboys' aerial attack is much better with Prescott back at the helm, but their ground game has been even more pivotal to their success. Ezekiel Elliott is listed as questionable for Sunday, but Tony Pollard has been more effective this season anyway and is coming off a 131-yard performance against Chicago.
Cowboys vs Packers Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 43.5 and ticked up to 44.5, which seems a bit surprising when you consider that these teams have gone a combined 5-11-1 O/U this season.
The Packers are 27th in the league in scoring with 17.1 points per game, and that number has dropped to 14.3 ppg over their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are holding foes to just 16.6 ppg.
That said, both teams have struggled to stop the run. Green Bay's defense is 26th in rush EPA, and while the Cowboys are 10th, they surrender a whopping 135.1 rushing yards per game.
The Packers' best offensive weapons are in the backfield with the duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. With temperatures approaching freezing on Sunday, both teams could rely on their ground games to control the clock.
Cowboys vs Packers betting trend to know
The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, while the Packers are 1-5 ATS in their previous six contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Packers.
Cowboys vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, November 13, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Packers +3, 43 O/U |
Cowboys vs Packers latest injuries
Cowboys vs Packers weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
