Cowboys vs Rams Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Los Angeles is Overvalued at Home

The Dallas Cowboys head to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5 of the NFL on Sunday afternoon.

The defending Super Bowl champion Rams will try to bounce back from a loss as they take on the Cowboys, who have won three in a row with backup quarterback Cooper Rush at the helm.

NFL betting lines hit the board with the Rams as -4 home favorites before ticking up to -5.5. Can the Cowboys keep covering with Cooper? I let you know with my best free NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys vs. Rams on October 9.

Be sure to also check out Alistair's favorite player prop plays heading into this matchup.

Cowboys vs Rams best odds

Cowboys vs Rams picks and predictions

The Cowboys have reeled off three-straight wins (going 3-0 ATS during that span) since losing Dak Prescott to a thumb injury in a Week 1 defeat to the Buccaneers. 

Rush hasn't been spectacular, but he has thrown for over 200 yards in each start without a single turnover. That sort of reliable security has allowed the Cowboys' defense to win games by holding opponents to 14.3 points per game and 4.3 yards per play over the last three contests. 

Now they face a struggling Rams offense that had under 4.0 yards per play in Weeks 1 and 4. The Rams' ground game has been mediocre and the passing game has become far too reliant on Cooper Kupp, but the biggest problem was been their offensive line. 

Left tackle Joseph Noteboom has struggled since taking over for the retired Andrew Whitworth. With backup center Coleman Shelton joining injured starter Brian Allen on the sidelines, L.A. could have third-string Jeremiah Kolone at the pivot. 

That's bad news against a scary Dallas pass rush that's tied for second in the NFL in sacks and ranks second in pressure rate. I'll take that defense and the Cowboys' momentum with the points against a Rams offense that's looked stagnant. 

Oddsmakers are also possibly overvaluing home-field advantage in this one since the Cowboys have long held training camp in Southern California, and a large contingent of their fans made it feel like a home game when they faced the Chargers at SoFi last year. 

My best bet: Cowboys +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Cowboys vs Rams spread analysis

The Cowboys have won and covered the spread in all four of Rush's career starts (including last year's Week 8 victory against the Vikings).

While shutting down the Commanders and Giants in back-to-back weeks might not seem that impressive, they did manage to stifle the Super Bowl runner-up Bengals in Week 2.

The Rams are coming off yet another defeat to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers after losing 24-9 last week. They mustered just 257 yards with a pair of turnovers in that contest, and quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times. 

Their offense was also locked down in a 31-10 loss to the Bills in their season opener. In between those two defeats, LA won a pair of games against the Falcons and Cardinals, although 17 garbage-time points from Atlanta resulted in a back-door ATS loss for the Rams.

The Rams' offense is just 26th in the league in DVOA, but their defense hasn't been much better, ranking 18th. While they have been very stingy against the run, they have been especially vulnerable through the air, where they are 22nd in defensive pass DVOA and 25th in Dropback EPA.

Cowboys vs Rams Over/Under analysis

Dallas' offense hasn't been great, but it's been playing within its limits with Rush under center. Even in last week's 25-10 win against Washington's awful defense, they managed just 279 yards.

CeeDee Lamb is a dangerous wideout, while Noah Brown has been a pleasant surprise. However, with Rush throwing the ball, they might not be able to test a Rams' secondary that is pretty thin due to injuries. 

Dallas will likely lean on their running back duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Still, neither has been that impressive, and the Rams' stop unit has been stingier against the run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. 

The Cowboys' defense has been the exact opposite, looking vulnerable against the run but ranking fifth in the league in DVOA against the pass. Their pass rush — anchored by Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Dorance Armstrong — has been a big reason for that. They've also gotten strong coverage from safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, while cornerback Trevon Diggs is proving that he's more than just a ballhawk. 

Diggs led the NFL in interceptions last year but received plenty of criticism for also getting burned at times. He's been more of a lockdown corner this season and has shut down Terry McLaurin and Ja'Marr Chase. If he can slow down Kupp, L.A.'s offense could quickly become one-dimensional. 

Cowboys vs Rams betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1-1 in the Cowboys' last seven road games while cashing in five of the Rams' previous six contests overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Rams.

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