Halloween night brings us the week’s highest point total when the Dallas Cowboys visit the Minnesota Vikings. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is highly questionable, which obviously affected the prop markets, but even with the uncertainty, we’ve put together three solid props that we feel confident in regardless of Prescott’s availability.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Sunday night’s Week 8 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings.
Cowboys vs Vikings prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cowboys vs Vikings SNF props
Pollard Tour
Tony Pollard has become a very important piece of this Dallas offense in 2021. He has double-digit carries in five straight games and has at least 40 yards rushing in each of those matches. Now the Cowboys could be without Prescott, which could mean a heavier dose of Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard with Cooper Rush possibly getting the start.
The Cowboys’ offensive line will also get a boost Sunday night with the return of La’el Collins after his suspension. Collins grades positively as a run blocker, per Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings’ strengths in defense lie in the passing game as they have the No. 24 DVOA rush defense and sit 21st in defensive rush success rate.
Pollard is getting 30-40 percent of the backfield snaps and with a rushing yard total of 38.5, we’re thinking this is seven to 10 yards too short considering the circumstances at QB. Give us the Over.
PICK: Tony Pollard Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Open Thielen
The Dallas defense is one of three units allowing 200-plus yards to opposing wide receivers, which is great news for Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who are averaging a combined 155 receiving yards per game.
Trusting Kirk Cousins in primetime is always a talking point but this is a great matchup versus a defense that sits in the middle of the pack in defensive success rate and may struggle to get any offensive rhythm if Dak is out. This game still has the highest total on the board at 52, so points are to be expected meaning yards should come in bunches as well.
Both Thielen and Jefferson offer value at 62.5 and 85.5 yards, respectively, but we like the former as Thielen is finally 100 percent healthy and is coming off an 11-catch 126-yards performance before the bye. Thielen can also kick into the slot where he could see nickel corner Jourdan Lewis, who ranks 107th out of 113 corners, per Pro Football Focus.
PICK: Adam Thielen Over 62.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Kissing Cousins
It’s not often we get early QB rushing totals under 10 yards but bet365 is hanging a 2.5 rushing yard prop on Minny QB Kirk Cousins. This number is Tom Brady territory.
Cousins doesn’t take off as much as other QBs but the 33-year-old signal-caller can still get downfield from time to time and has finished with positive rushing yards in four of his six games. He had 16 yards on the ground in Week 6 and 35 yards versus the Cards in Week 2. He averaged 7.1 rushing yards per game in 2020 and topped this total in eight of his 16 games.
This short rushing prop adds another dimension of excitement when watching the game as one broken play can result in a winning bet. QBs Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and Sam Darnold all finished with positive rushing yards versus the Cowboys this year and Cousins just needs three yards for a winner and is more than capable of it.
Disclaimer: if Cousins were to kneel, that would count against his rushing total so victory formation is the enemy in props like this.
PICK: Kirk Cousins Over 2.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Season to date: 43-51 -7.54 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
