DeAndre Hopkins TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Another Thursday, another week of looking for gag-inducing TNF picks with the injury-riddled New Orleans Saints visiting the pathetic offense of the Arizona Cardinals.

After witnessing the Commanders/Bears clash last week, trying to find compelling Saints-Cardinals props or betting storylines seems like an effort in vain. If only there was a juicy storyline or a savior to rush in and save us from another ho-hum game...

Dramatic pause. Looks to the sky. Sees a silhouette of a deity-like figure with dreadlocks.

Our prayers have been answered, as DeAndre Hopkins will make his season debut in Week 7!

For one week at least, we don't have to bet on struggling (or backup) quarterbacks, a third-string wide receiver, or a star running back who largely gets ignored — on the menu this week is DeAndre Hopkins props, in all its Kliff Kingsbury-led chaos and glory.

We don't really know how well "Nuk" will play — or how much he'll even play — but my free NFL picks are pretty confident that the Cards will maximize their top WRs time on the field.

DeAndre Hopkins TNF prop picks

• Over 5.5 receptions
• To score a touchdown
• Longest reception Over 21.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

DeAndre Hopkins TNF props

Kyler needs a hero

To say that things have gone poorly for QB Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals offense so far this season is an understatement.

After putting up a whopping nine points last week against the pitiful Seahawks defense, Kyler now sits (among QBs with at least 10 pass attempts) 19th in the league in completion percentage, 37th in yards per attempt, and 29th in intended air yards per attempt.

His average depth of target is also a career-low 7.1 yards, while his receiving core is dropping a career-high 5.2% of his passes.

All of this, along with the injury news that Marquise Brown is also now out for at least six weeks, can't help but have Kyler feeling like Bonnie Tyler.

Isn't there a white knight upon a fiery steed?
Late at night, I toss and I turn,
And I dream of what I need...
...I need a hero.

Well, Kyler's dreams have been answered: He finally gets the return of No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who was suspended for the first six games due to PEDs but has been Murray's preferred target in his two seasons in the desert.

He's gotta be strong, and he's gotta be fast,
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

We don't know exactly how strong and/or fast D-Hop will be, considering he's basically played two games in the last 12 months (and the whole PEDs thing), but we do know that he's rested — and with the state of the Cardinals offense, he'll get plenty of attention.

With "Hollywood" Brown — who had played nearly 95% of the team's offensive snaps through six weeks — out, the only pass-catchers left with any continuity is WR Rondale Moore (who missed the first three weeks but has seen his snap count go from 85.5% to 98.6% last week) and tight end Zach Ertz.

The aging A.J. Green is playing around 55% of the offensive snaps this season, while Greg Dortch has played less than 5% of offensive snaps over the past two weeks, and newly acquired Robbie Anderson won't be expected to do much (other than run some deep go routes) after joining the team two days ago.

With Brown's 26.3% target share now up for grabs, Murray will surely look towards Moore and Ertz — but nobody on that field come Thursday will have had more reps and chemistry with Kyler than Hopkins, who had a 29.4% target share in 2020 and 20.5% in his 10 games last year.

It's also a good situation for Hopkins to return on Thursday. The New Orleans Saints defense won't have star CB Marshon Lattimore once again, and without him last week, the Saints allowed Ja'Marr Chase to register seven catches, while Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins both also had six catches.

Hopkins likely won't play a full snap count (although the receiver said he doesn't feel like he should be limited), which has me a little concerned about a yardage prop that sits between 58.5 and 60.5.

I do, however, like his receptions prop: Hopkins will definitely be playing on key downs, and with a banged-up offensive line (now without Justin Pugh) and no threat of a run game at all, the Saints will be coming after Murray — meaning we could see a lot of quick, short throws.

Against a secondary lacking guys who can cover receivers, expect Hopkins to be the recipient of many of those important passes, taking him Over his receptions prop for TNF.

Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Over 5.5 receptions (+125)

Louisiana (TD) rain

I mean, it's only been a couple of days of practice, but Murray is already gushing over the return of his gridiron BFF:

Kyler Murray on the return of DeAndre Hopkins:

"It seems like every time you see him out on the field, it's like, there's a reason why he's the best."

— Tyler Drake (@Tdrake4sports) October 18, 2022

I've already established that No. 10 will be getting as many looks from Murray as possible in important situations, but he'll really be locked in on Hopkins in the red zone.

The Cardinals are currently just 20th in the league with a red zone touchdown percentage of just 50% — including 0-for-2 last week and just three TDs in their last 10 trips over the past four games.

Arizona's leader in RZ targets this season is Ertz, who has caught 4/11 targets, while Brown was 1/4 and the rest of the team is 6 of 12. Hopkins had a 32.6% red zone target share in 10 games in 2021 and a 26.1% RZ target share in 2020, hauling in nearly half of his targets for seven TDs.

There may be questions about his overall snap count, but there will be zero doubt that Hopkins will be playing in the key red zone/goal-to-go situations. For the same reasons, I like Hopkins to go Over his receptions total, as Murray will be looking at him when he's playing. Factor in a bad Saints secondary and no rushing options for Arizona?

I like "Nuk" to get a few red zone targets... and bring at least one in for a touchdown.

Prop: DeAndre Hopkins anytime touchdown (+155)

My guns are loaded

In 2020, Murray was Pro Football Focus' 10th-highest graded QB on deep balls (20+ yards), averaging about four attempts per game. He was even better last season, as connections with Hopkins, Green, and Christian Kirk led to Murray being the top-graded QB on deep balls, averaging a shade over five attempts per game.

His 2022 numbers? Still averaging five deep attempts per game... but he's the 39th-graded QB. With Hopkins gone, Kirk departing in the offseason, and Green going from a reliable target last year (12/20) to 0/5 on downfield throws this year, Murray had nobody capable of consistently taking the top off the defense.

Brown was his best option (5/14) but he's also sidelined, meaning Murray's viable downfield targets are either Anderson (who doesn't know the playbook at all but is fast and can run downfield) or Hopkins, who (do you sense a theme here?) can step right in and make an immediate impact.

Hopkins' longest reception total is current 21.5 yards — a number he failed to best in his last two games of 2021. However, he was noticeably bothered by injuries in those games and went 13-5 against that number in his prior 18 games.

Despite a pitiful 26.7% completion rate on deep throws right now, Murray is still third in the NFL with 30 attempts of 20+ yards. He now has a bona fide downfield weapon in Hopkins, and against a depleted Saints secondary that gave up three 21+ yard completions last week, I'll wager on No. 10 catching at least one chunk play.

Prop: DeAndre Hopkins longest completion Over 21.5 yards (-115)

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