There were many factors that played into the Denver Broncos’ faceplant in 2022 but it’s easiest to point the finger at first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
Immediately, like right away in Week 1, Mile High faithful saw a flaw. Hackett’s game prep, play calling, and late-game decision making weren’t up to snuff. Suddenly, and wagers placed on Denver NFL futures alongside its Super Bowl odds weren't looking so hot.
The losses started to bring all the blemishes to the surface. The locker room rotted, injuries stacked up, and Russell Wilson went from a fan favorite to a prissy prima donna about as fake as that pair of “Air Jordins” you bought off Wish.
Up the mountain comes Sean Payton.
The former Saints Super Bowl-winning coach is everything that Hackett wasn’t. He’s an all-time strategist, a master of in-game adjustments, and has nerves of steel in the fourth quarter. Payton also doesn’t play around when it comes to his offense and will wrangle in an untethered Wilson whether he likes it or not.
The NFL odds markets still believe in the Broncos, but do bettors? I get “Rocky Mountain High” for my 2023 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.
Denver Broncos futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4,500 | +4,500 | +4,000 |
| Win conference | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| Win division | +550 | +600 | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +180 | +186 | +175 |
| O8.5 wins | -110 | -106 | -105 |
| U8.5 wins | -110 | -114 | -115 |
Best futures bet: Over 8.5 wins (-105)
Payton’s impact is felt instantly and will flip the fortunes of a 4-8 SU (5-7 ATS) record in one-score games (eight points or less) from 2022. Even breaking even in those close contests should lift the Broncos past eight wins.
Denver's troubles weren’t just Hackett or Wilson related. The team lost the most games to injury in the league, and that included plenty of skilled players and top weapons on offense. The Broncos would often win the yardage battle but couldn’t win the red-zone wars, requiring the highest yards per points in the land (19.3).
Payton-produced offenses rarely have trouble finding the end zone, averaging more than 25 points in a dozen of his 15 seasons as a head coach. More scoring and a balanced playbook will also boost a defense that logged major minutes in 2022, with the offense unable to stay on the field at times (dead last in third down rate — 29.13%).
The Broncos finished 31st in the always fun “Luck Rating” last season. As you know, you’ve got to be good to be lucky. Coach Payton is pretty good.
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Denver Broncos betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
Overshadowed by the shit show on offense, the Broncos defense did everything it could for bettors last season.
Denver wrapped up the year 10th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, headlined by a sensational secondary that sat No. 5 in EPA allowed per dropback. That core returns, including shutdown corner Pat Surtain II and star safety Justin Simmons.
New defensive coordinator Vance Joseph (a former Denver head coach) is looking to pick up the pass rush with more blitz-heavy schemes. Any improvement on a pressure rate of 18.5% (seventh lowest) and the 34 sacks of 2022 will only feed into the success of the secondary, which had 15 interceptions last year.
If Payton’s offense clicks and dominates time of possession, rival attacks will be forced to throw into the teeth of this Denver defense. Fourth-quarter interceptions will seal the deal for Broncos bettors.
What will lose bets: Sketchy skill players
Payton and the Broncos’ new ownership group spent money shoring up the foundations of this offense, bringing in some big-money pass protectors for an offensive line that allowed a league-high 63 sacks last season. Those additions, as well as the return of some quality bodies, see Denver’s O-line make leaps and bounds in the preseason polls.
But could the Broncos be building an immovable foundation and putting up paper mâché walls? The skill positions have too many question marks around production as well as health — starting with Russell Wilson.
He graded out next to guys like Davis Mills and Matt Ryan at Pro Football Focus in 2022, taking one of the furthest tumbles for a QB that we’ve seen in years. Is he broken or can Payton put DangerRuss back together again? I believe he can.
The weapons around Wilson are also uncertainties. The running game will be the focal point, but Javonte Williams’ surgically repaired knees are a big part of that plan. Jerry Jeudy looked like a true WR1 to finish off the year, but his production has been dampened by ailments (Update: Jeudy is expected to miss several weeks after suffering a hamstring injury in practice) — not as much as fellow WR Courtland Sutton.
Staying healthy was a talking point for Payton when he took the job in Denver. This summer has already seen WR Tim Patrick go down with an Achilles tear, second-year LB Jonas Griffith was lost for the year, and starting LB Baron Browning is on the PUP list. The Broncos roster doesn’t have a lot of depth to begin with and that will get stressed as the season plays out.
Denver Broncos 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Las Vegas Raiders |
-3.5 |
| 2 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-3.5 |
| 3 | @  Miami Dolphins |
+3.5 |
| 4 | @  Chicago Bears |
-1.5 |
| 5 | vs  New York Jets |
+1 |
| 6 | @  Kansas City Chiefs |
+7 |
| 7 | vs  Green Bay Packers |
-3.5 |
| 8 | vs Kansas City Chiefs |
+3.5 |
| 9 | BYE | |
| 10 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+6 |
| 11 | vs  Minnesota Vikings |
-2 |
| 12 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
-1 |
| 13 | @  Houston Texans |
-4 |
| 14 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
+3 |
| 15 | @  Detroit Lions |
+2 |
| 16 | vs  New England Patriots |
-2 |
| 17 | vs Los Angeles Chargers |
-1 |
| 18 | @ Las Vegas Raiders |
-1 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
Any time you play the Chiefs and Chargers twice, your schedule is an uphill climb. The Broncos’ 2023 slate ranks 14th in strength of schedule, thanks in larger part to those AFC West rivals. Around the divisional dates, Denver does encounter contenders in Miami, the N.Y. Jets, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Detroit.
While some teams have a significant difference between their season win total and look-ahead lines, bookmakers seem to be certain the Broncos are destined for eight or nine wins in 2023. The win total is at 8.5 and the early spreads have Denver as a favorite in eight games, with two others placed at a pick’em.
In the seven games with the Broncos getting points, they’re underdogs of +3.5 or more in five of those outings. Denver went 6-3 ATS as a pup in 2022 and caught +3.5 or more in four of those contests — covering in all four.
My NFL ratings place the Broncos at 17th overall (51.47/100), which is behind Kansas City (1st) and Los Angeles (7th) in the AFC West pecking order, and on par with peripheral Super Bowl contenders like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Atlanta.
The Sean Payton era does get a lift from two easier opening contests, with the Broncos at home to Las Vegas in Week 1 and hosting Washington in Week 2.
Those games play into one of my favorite NFL betting trends with a narrative. Denver’s home field has an extra edge early in the season with visitors still working their way into game shape and playing in the thin air at altitude. That especially holds up in the Broncos’ season openers.
Denver is 20-3 SU and 14-5-4 ATS (74%) in home openers since 2000. Week 1 odds have the Broncos laying -3.5 to the visiting Raiders (this line was as big as -4.5). My power ratings set a projected line closer to Denver -5.5 considering that annual advantage.
Things get tougher from Week 3 onward, with three of the next four contests coming on the road. The lone home game is a matchup with castoff head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who is now the OC for the Jets. Payton had some choice words for the former regime as well as New York’s high-profile offseason, giving this Week 5 game a dash of sweet chili heat.
There’s a rough stint of three straight away games from Week 13 to Week 15, however, the Broncos do play six of their final 11 games at home with a bye in Week 9.
The crisp Rocky Mountain winter has given Broncos bettors a boost later in the year, with the team going 7-4 ATS (6-5 SU) at home between Week 13 and Week 18 the past four years. Denver has important home dates in Week 16 (vs. Patriots) and Week 17 (vs. Chargers) that will hold postseason weight.
The Broncos' average Over/Under for 2023 sits at 44 points, which is on the higher end of the scale compared to most teams. There are matchups against potent scoring attacks like Kansas City, Miami, Detroit, and Buffalo boosting those totals and there’s nowhere to go but up for Payton after Denver averaged a league-low 16.9 points in 2022.
Denver Broncos schedule spot bet
Week 6: @ Chiefs
If visiting Arrowhead Stadium in primetime wasn’t bad enough, the Broncos face one of the nastiest situational spots for any team in Week 6.
This trip to Kansas City will be Denver’s third road game in four weeks, but because it’s scheduled for Thursday Night Football, it will squeeze that travel-packed calendar into a 18-day window. The Broncos are at Miami in Week 3, at Chicago in Week 4, and at home to the Jets in Week 5 before a short week to prep for the best team in football.
Look-ahead lines have Denver as a touchdown dog in that game while my power ratings produced a spread of Broncos +9. Denver hasn’t won at Arrowhead Stadium since 2015 and is 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS ever since.
Star power: Russell Wilson props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +4,500 | +4,000 | +4,500 |
| CPOY | +2,000 | +2,500 | OTB |
| Pass yards leader | +3,500 | +4,000 | +3,000 |
| Pass TD leader | +2,500 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| O24.5 pass TD | -120 | -112 | -125* |
| U24.5 pass TD | +100 | -112 | -105* |
| Pass yard total | 3,750.5 | 3,625.5 | 3,675.5 |
*Pass TD total is 23.5 at Caesars
Best prop: Over 3,625.5 passing yards (-112)
Even in the disaster of 2022, Wilson put up more than 3,500 passing yards.
He was among the leaders in intended air yards but rarely hit those home runs, completing just over 60% of his overall throws. His accuracy wasn’t there and his receiving corps didn’t help with the eighth-highest drop percentage.
Payton is reeling in those passing plays, not only having Wilson throw less but keeping things short and tidy. That’s not to say those long bombs won’t be there, but his playcalling is very calculated with quick hits and runs sucking in the defense before striking over the top.
Even with the switch in offensive philosophies, Wilson’s season-long projections are positive. His consensus passing production is north of 3,800 yards, which would put him behind the pace of his Seattle glory days but on par with QBs like Jalen Hurts last year.
I believe there’s more left in the tank for Wilson, who was humbled in 2022. He’s come into this season ready to learn from coach Payton and has dropped weight — along with the diva attitude — to help him in an offense that will move him around a lot more than last season.
Denver Broncos betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
With Jerry Jeudy's recent injury, the Broncos are looking quite thin at receiver with Tim Patrick also out. I’m not sold on Sean Payton turning Russell Wilson into a Top-16 QB this year. Even in his later years with Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints' passing game ranked in the Bottom 10 in yards per completion in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, new OC Joe Lombardi has been known to throttle the deep passing game during his time with the Chargers.
With a passing total of 3750.5 yards, the 12th-highest on the board, I’m very high on Wilson's Under, especially following the Jeudy injury news. Wilson is far from a lock to play 16 or 17 games in 2023 and coupled with a much more difficult SOS than a year ago, I’m betting against Wilson throwing for 227 yards more than he did in Year 1 in Denver.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
I'm not going to sugar coat it — the 2022 Denver Broncos were one of the greatest laughingstocks in professional sports history… but here’s the thing, they were close in a lot of their games, with an insane nine of their losses coming by seven or fewer points. It’s hard to envision a competent head coach not making a difference. They didn’t have that luxury last season, but now they do with Sean Payton, who stacked up nine double-digit win seasons as head coach of the Saints.
Payton will inherit a great defense, but the true question mark is Russell Wilson whose career plummeted off a cliff last season. If Wilson can at least be competent, this team should be in the mix late in the season thanks to its defense. Instead of a bet to make the playoffs in the stacked AFC or taking the Over on Denver's 8.5 win total, I’ll take a shot on Denver finishing 2nd in the AFC West with odds of +270.
Denver Broncos trend to know
You’ve got to go back to 2014 for the last season in which the Broncos leaned more to the Over than the Under.
They were 6-11 Over/Under in 2022, due to a solid defense and awful offense and are a collective 50-78-2 O/U in the regular season since 2015 — staying below the total at a blind 61% clip.
Bump those numbers to 46 points or higher and the Broncos are 7-20 O/U against those taller totals — a 74% winner for Under bettors.
The 2023 look-ahead lines have five Denver games with totals of 46-plus on the board.
Broncos game totals of 46 or more
- Week 4 @ Bears (O/U 46)
- Week 6 @ Chiefs (O/U 48)
- Week 8 vs. Chiefs (O/U 47.5)
- Week 11 vs. Vikings (O/U 46.5)
- Week 14 @ Chargers (O/U 49)
