The NFL Divisional Round kicks off this Saturday and features some elite teams trying to avoid being upset, and some solid matchups that could go either way.
We’ll side with the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in a Saturday-only parlay, then take a first-half total and a betting favorite in our Sunday parlay selections.
Check out my Divisional Round parlay picks below.
Divisional Round NFL parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Chiefs -8.5 (-115) + Eagles 1H -4.5 (-105) = +265 at DraftKings
Chiefs -8.5 (-115)
The Jacksonville Jaguars roared back from a 27-0 deficit to beat the Chargers at home last Saturday, but bettors should not expect lightning to strike twice this week.
The Jaguars struggled for the most part as the visiting squad this year, going 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Their defense was often left wondering what happened in those games, as this unit allowed at least 360 total yards in six of those nine affairs. Two of the contests in which they held the opposition to below 300 yards were against the Jets and the Texans, respectively.
The Chiefs torched the Jags when they met at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10, producing 486 yards of offense. If it weren’t for their 3-0 loss in the turnover battle (one of only two games in which Kansas City committed more than two turnovers this year), Patrick Mahomes & Co. could have easily scored more than 27 points and covered as 10-point favorites rather than push.
K.C.’s defense tightened up down the stretch, allowing only 291.6 total yards per game over their final five tilts, all victories, and forced eight turnovers. That spells trouble for Trevor Lawrence, who had four passes picked off in the Wild Card round.
This is a big number, but there’s an obvious talent disparity here, and having home-field advantage off a bye for this Andy Reid-led squad should work wonders.
Eagles 1H -4.5 (-105)
The New York Giants have been a reliable club for bettors this year, going 13-4 ATS despite a 9-7-1 SU record. That doesn’t even factor in last Sunday’s upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings. This gives me cause for pause when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles covering a 7.5-point spread, but not so much a 4.5-point first-half spread, as they often soar to early success.
No team has notched more points per first half than the Eagles at 17.4 per game. The Giants’ offense pales in comparison, producing only 9.3 points per first half this year.
Philly’s defense was slightly better in the regular season than New York’s, when it came to preventing first-half points, allowing only 10.3 per game, compared to 10.8. But Big Blue coughed up 14 points to the Vikings in the first two quarters in last week’s tilt.
The Eagles outpaced the Giants in the first half 24-7 and 16-0, respectively, in their two regular-season meetings (albeit they faced New York’s “B” squad in Week 18). Jalen Hurts used Week 18 as a playoff tune-up and had a bye to get his ailing shoulder in shape. Even at less than 100%, I much prefer riding with Hurts over Daniel Jones.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Bengals vs. Bills 1H Over 23.5 (-120) + 49ers -4 (-110) = +250 at bet365
Bengals vs Bills 1H Over 23.5 (-120)
Some NFL fans and bettors might anticipate an emotional hangover when the Cincinnati Bengals battle the Buffalo Bills, mere weeks after Damar Hamlin’s near-fatal injury brought a halt to their Week 17 matchup, but this handicapper sees some early fireworks happening instead.
The Bengals scored 14.2 points per first half this year, fifth in the NFL. Joe Burrow & Co. notched all 22 of their points against the Patriots in the first half in Week 16, then routed the Baltimore Ravens for 24 points in the first two-quarters of Week 18. Their Wild Card round rematch with that foe was a bit sluggish – which is somewhat understandable given the circumstances – but Cincinnati still managed nine first-half points.
Buffalo was a bit better than the Bengals in first-half scoring, notching 15.8 points per game (second in football). The Bills produced no fewer than 14 first-half points in three of their final four full games in 2022. Only Mahomes had more passing touchdowns in the first half than Josh Allen this year (25-24).
49ers -4 (-110)
Brody Purdy is helping the San Francisco 49ers produce points at a feverish rate, and a fatigued Dallas Cowboys defense could get left in the dust this Sunday.
The Niners are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS behind Purdy, including their 41-23 demolition of the Seahawks last Saturday. Incredibly, San Fran is averaging 34.6 PPG in that stretch, scoring at least 33 points in all but one of those tilts.
Purdy compiled 332 yards and three passing touchdowns in the Wild Card round, both career-highs for him. He’s had better games from an accuracy standpoint, as he went 18-for-30 against Seattle, but the Niners will gladly take this from the man who was their third-string quarterback when they broke camp.
Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey has four 100-yard rushing performances in his last six efforts, including Saturday’s 119-yard outing.
San Fran will be taking on a jetlagged Dallas defense making its fourth appearance on the road in as many weeks. When the Cowboys have the ball, the 49ers can target a turnover-prone Dak Prescott (15 INTs). No team had more interceptions in the regular season than San Francisco this year (20).
