The NFL Divisional Round is here, and playoff football combined with freezing weather tends to bring high-intensity, lower-scoring slugfests.
That's why my NFL picks are betting on a trio of Unders as I break down the totals and O/U numbers for the Divisional Round this weekend.
Divisional Round totals bets
- Texans vs Chiefs Under 41.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Rams vs Eagles Under 44 (-110 at Caesars)
- Ravens vs Bills Under 51.5 (-110 at Sports Interaction)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Divisional Round Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Texans vs Chiefs Under 41.5
This total has ticked down slightly from the opening number of 42.5, but it's still just above that key number of 41. It will be a frigid evening at Arrowhead on Saturday with temps around 22 degrees, and in extreme cold below 25 degrees, passing production typically dips by about 8%.
The Houston Texans offense has floundered since losing WR Tank Dell. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has a significant drop-off in production when playing outdoors (6.6 yards per attempt) so he could struggle, especially if RB Joe Mixon is unable to play.
The absence of Mixon could lead to more passing from the Texans, but it also means that they'll become predictable and the Kansas City Chiefs can drop multiple defenders into coverage. That will be a huge edge for a stingy K.C. stop unit that is getting back a key piece in CB Jaylen Watson.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have already been dinking-and-dunking their way down the field, ranking 23rd in the NFL in yards per play (5.1). They'll have a tough time generating explosive plays or maintaining drives against a Texans D that is near the top of the league in third-down defense (35.5%) and ranks fourth in yards per play allowed (5.1).
Over/Under bet #2: Rams vs Eagles Under 44
Both of these teams shut down Top-10 offenses in the Wild Card Round last week. The Philadelphia Eagles throttled the Packers 22-10, while the Los Angeles Rams held the Vikings to 3.8 yards per play in a 27-9 beatdown.
Since their bye in Week 5, the Eagles have led the league in defensive EPA and success rate. Their ability to get to the quarterback will make life miserable for Matthew Stafford, just like they did when these teams clashed two months ago.
If you omit their meaningless Week 18 loss to the Seahawks, the Rams have held their last four opponents to fewer than 10 points each. This is a young Rams stop unit with four rookie starters, but they made huge strides throughout the season. Jared Verse looks like the next superstar edge.
When you also factor in an Eagles offense that loves to run the ball (first in the NFL in rushing play percentage) and a 70% chance of snow in Sunday's game, the Under is the play.
Over/Under bet #3: Ravens vs Bills Under 51.5
On the surface, this should be an easy Over play. After all, you have the two highest-rated offenses in the league and defenses that have looked vulnerable at times. That said, this total looks too high for a game where both offenses could become one-dimensional.
The Baltimore Ravens stomped the Buffalo Bills 35-10 when these teams previously clashed back in September. However, the Bills were missing Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, and Taron Johnson in that contest, and they don't have a single player on the injury report this time around.
Derrick Henry ran all over them in that contest, but I'm expecting the Bills to sell out against the run and dare Lamar Jackson to beat them through the air on Sunday. That might be possible if not for the fact that Baltimore will likely be missing top wideout Zay Flowers and temperatures will be around 15 degrees — well below the previously mentioned threshold that suppresses passing.
With those frigid conditions, I'm also expecting a run-heavy approach from the Bills, who ran the ball 61.1% of the time against the Broncos last week. But it won't be easy to move the ball on the ground against a Ravens defense that leads the NFL in rush success rate and allows a league-low 3.5 yards per carry.
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