NFL playoff odds are some of the most efficient markets in sports betting.
In order to find an edge, bettors have to search high and low. And speaking of high, we look to the skies to see how the weather might impact and influence the outcomes of the three outdoor games in the NFL Divisional Round.
Here’s my NFL betting weather report for Saturday and Sunday’s postseason action.
Texans vs Chiefs Weather
The Houston Texans a long way from the Lone Star State this Saturday.
The Texans take the field in Arrowhead Stadium, where game-time temperatures will be in the mid-20s but winds will make it “feel like” 10 degrees for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The mercury will drop as the sun goes down in Kansas City.
Sustained winds of 10 mph could hit gusts up to 28 mph, blowing NNW from corner to corner.
Houston visited Arrowhead in Week 16, when temperatures were around freezing. The Texans mustered 19 points and quarterback C.J. Stroud finished 23 for 29 passing for 244 yards with two TDs and two interceptions. Stroud’s statistical splits aren’t great in outdoor games during his short pro career.
His completion rate dips below 59% (65% indoors), his average yards per pass sink to 6.6 (compared to around eight ypa indoors), and his passer rating settles in short of 84.0 in open air games compared to 99.6 inside.
This opened with a total of 42.5 points and is down to 41.5 O/U at some books.
Rams vs Eagles Weather
Sunday’s schedule starts at 3 p.m. ET in Philadelphia, where some forecasts show a chance of rain and perhaps a mix of snow. Those models call for a 62% shot of precipitation with rain starting around 1 p.m. and continuing to about 7 p.m. local time.
Game-time temperatures will be mild for mid-January, hovering around 40 degrees. Some forecasts also call for sustained winds of 8 mph and gusts around 20 mph, moving SW from end to end at Lincoln Financial Field.
That current outlook is an advantage for the Philadelphia Eagles against a indoor opponent in the Los Angeles Rams. There are also situational angles working against L.A. as well. It’s traveling for the second straight week after a stressful move to Arizona due to the wildfires last week and playing on a short week after winning a neutral-site Wild Card game on Monday.
That said, Rams QB Matthew Stafford isn’t as influenced by outdoor games as other indoor quarterbacks (going back to his NFC North days, playing in Chicago and Green Bay twice a season). His career output sees a slight dip in open-air contests, most notably his interception rate. He’s thrown an INT in just 83% of his indoor starts versus a tossing a pick in 87.5% of outdoor appearances.
This total opened at 44.5 and has trimmed to 43.5 O/U.
Ravens vs Bills Weather
It will be cold in Orchard Park for this 6:30 p.m. ET main event of the Divisional Round weekend.
Temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees but will “feel like” 7 degrees, with some lighter breezes chilling the air. Sustained winds of 6 mph will hit gusts of 13 mph, moving WNW from sideline to sideline at Highmark Stadium.
There is also a chance of light snow throughout this showdown, with some forecasts giving a 60% chance of white stuff but nothing that should impact footing on the field. Blowing snow can impact downfield visibility on deeper passing plays, however.
Both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills will look to establish the run in what will be a very physical game up front. The sub-freezing temperatures will make those collisions hurt all the more and perhaps cool off the air attacks as well. In NFL games with temperatures south of 25 degrees, we see an 8% decrease in pass production.
This total opened at 51.5 and has stayed put so far this week.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
