Dolphins vs Bills Same Game Parlay for Week 9: Buffalo Continues to Have Tua's Number

It’s an AFC East showdown in Week 9 with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills meeting for the second time of the season Sunday, November 3.

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has had a tough go against Buffalo in the past, and our top Dolphins vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks expect him to have difficulty airing it out again this week.

Dolphins vs Bills SGP for Week 9

Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards

Raheem Mostert Over 5.5 receiving yards

Bills -2.5

+450 at bet365

• Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards
• Raheem Mostert Over 5.5 receiving yards
• Bills -2.5

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 250 yards or fewer against the Buffalo Bills in five of the past six meetings between the AFC East rivals. 

Tagovailoa also passed for just 234 yards last week in a favorable home matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. After all, the Cards rank 30th in EPA per dropback, 29th in PFF coverage grade, and 26th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

All the while, the Buffalo Bills' stop unit is currently surrendering the sixth-lowest YPA allowed to opposing QBs. It’s also notable that Tagovailoa’s return allowed Miami to rush for 150 yards, and he only threw for 6.2 YPA and a minuscule 5.9 aDOT.

Miami running back Raheem Mostert has recorded double-digit receiving yards in three of his four games — with five receptions for 39 yards on seven targets. While he’s splitting carries with backfield mate De'Von Achane, Mostert is still plenty involved in the Miami offense, including playing 47% of the offensive snaps and running 17 routes during the Week 8 loss to Arizona. It’s also not a nightmare matchup, with the Bills surrendering a healthy 6.58 yards per target to opposing running backs. 

To wrap up this SGP, I like a decreased Buffalo spread below multiple key numbers. The Bills have covered the number in both meetings last year and prevailed as a road underdog against the Dolphins in Week 2.

While it’s difficult to compare the two teams because Tagovailoa missed four games, it's not tough to position the Bills among the NFL’s best in Week 9 odds. Buffalo ranks fifth in DVOA and boasts the third-highest EPA per play entering Sunday.

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