Week 15 in the NFL features three games on Saturday, including a marquee AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
The Bills are currently atop the division with a 10-3 record but the Phins are still in striking distance, just two games back and having defeated them earlier this year. NFL odds have Buffalo installed as a 7.5-point home favorite for this rivalry contest with the Over/Under at 44.5.
Here are my best free Dolphins vs. Bills NFL picks and predictions for December 17.
Be sure to also check out our Dolphins vs. Bills prop picks along with our Stefon Diggs spotlight props.
Dolphins vs Bills best odds
Dolphins vs Bills picks and predictions
You've likely heard about the messy weather expected in Buffalo more times than Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas is You" but it has to factor in your handicapping. This game is expected to get a mix of rain and snow, with winds swirling at 16 mph, and the big question is how that will affect both teams.
The popular narrative is that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa struggles in cold weather while his Bills counterpart, Josh Allen, is able to get the job done. While it's true that Tua has a history of playing poorly in cold-weather games, the same is true for Allen.
No quarterback is capable of slinging the ball in freezing temperatures with howling winds and while the Bills have been able to win those games in recent years, they typically aren't running up the score.
Allen did torch the Patriots in cold weather during the playoffs last season but that was on a clear day with little wind. He entered that contest having completed just 50.3% of his passes for 166.6 yards per game in five career games with freezing temperatures.
Last week, in freezing rain and snow against the Jets, he threw for just 147 yards in a 20-12 victory. The previous week the Bills beat the Patriots 24-10 with their defense limiting New England to just 242 yards.
Although Tua's passer rating of 61.4 in his four coldest career games needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt, since he was less experienced and playing in a different system (with inferior weapons), it's still unlikely that he'll have much success here.
Especially when you consider Miami's last two games, where the Phins put up just 17 points against the 49ers and Chargers. Tua looked awful against a subpar Bolts defense last week completing just 10-28 passes for 145 yards (with 60 of those yards coming on a single bomb to Tyreek Hill) and now he faces a much better Buffalo stop unit.
If the passing games are limited by the weather, both sides will have to rely on ground games that are less than impressive. And, both defenses have been very stout against the run, with the Bills third in defensive rush DVOA and the Dolphins eighth.
With both teams playing in lower-scoring contests lately, the Under 44.5 might have been the play even if the weather was fine. With things looking ugly, I'm even more confident in that result.
My best bet: Under 44.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Dolphins vs Bills spread analysis
At first glance, this line might seem too large, when you consider how close these teams are in the standings and the fact that the Dolphins edged the Bills 21-19 in Week 3. But, this is a very tough spot for Miami to be in as it heads to Buffalo for its third road game in a row, following losses against the Chargers and 49ers.
The Bills have won four in a row and are coming off an 8-point home victory against the Jets. We know that Allen and the Bills can get the job done in messy weather but I have less faith in a Miami team that isn't quite as good in the trenches.
Tua has been dismissing reports that he can't play in cold weather all week, saying that it's simply a matter of mindset. He also reportedly spent part of the offseason practicing with his brother Talia, the Terrapins' quarterback, at Maryland in order to hone his throwing ability in winter conditions. That said, it's not so much the cold that hinders passing as it is wind and precipitation, and both factors would hamper any QB.
The Dolphins and Bills rank first and third respectively in offensive pass DVOA but both aerial attacks will be kept in check by the conditions, so the running games should be the deciding factor.
Allen is particularly valuable for his ability to pick up tough yards on the ground and Buffalo's offensive line is ninth in the NFL in power success while Miami ranks dead last in that category. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are fourth in rush EPA while the Phins rank 12th.
That said, a lower-scoring game isn't exactly conducive to covering seven points for a Bills team that is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven.
Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under analysis
Despite losing Von Miller to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, Buffalo's defense has been very stingy lately. All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White is back in the lineup after rehabbing from a torn ACL and the Bills have a deep defensive line that does an excellent job of bottling up opposing backs.
The Bills are also coming off back-to-back lower-scoring games. They've allowed just 11 ppg in their last two games and while those contests came against subpar offenses, they have proven all year that they are tough to score against.
That said, their offense hasn't looked great lately and their offensive line really struggled against the Jets in Week 14 allowing three sacks and four QB hits.
Miami's offense has looked even worse lately and the Chargers' defensive gameplan last week rattled Tua, who couldn't get into his usual rhythm. Los Angeles used press coverage to slow down the ability of Dolphins receivers to get off the line of scrimmage and it also took away the middle of the field, where Miami typically attacks. The Bills have the system and personnel to emulate that success.
The Chargers utilized a heavy amount of press coverage to disrupt the timing of the Dolphins offense.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 12, 2022
Chargers in Press Coverage (Week 14):
???? 35% of detached routes (season-high)
???? Allowed just 1 completion on 8 targets#MIAvsLAC | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/NCmGBt6zWn
Dolphins vs Bills betting trend to know
The Under is 9-2 in Buffalo's last 11 games overall while going 6-1 in its previous seven contests against teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bills.
Dolphins vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Bills -7.5, 47.5 |
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Dolphins vs Bills weather
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