Dolphins vs Bills Week 15 Props: Weather Won't Stop Stefon From Scoring

Week 15 of the NFL season offers us a fantastic AFC East matchup with the Miami Dolphins taking on the division-topping Buffalo Bills. 

Snowy conditions are expected for much of the day but aren’t in the forecast during Saturday night's game, which features a 42.5-point total.

Will wideout Stefon Diggs impact this important AFC East clash? Find out in our NFL prop picks below... and check out both our Stefon Diggs spotlight props and Dolphins vs. Bills picks for more. 

Dolphins vs Bills prop picks

• Diggs Over 0.5 TD receptions (+145)
• Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards (-107)
• Waddle Under 4.5 receptions (-112)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Dolphins vs Bills Week 15 props

Stefon scores

We rarely get plus money on a Stefon Diggs receiving prop, making this +145 on him to find the endzone hard to pass up.

The snow should subside well before kick-off, the wind is supposed to remain under 10 mph, and the field should be free of snow.

Bills signal-caller Josh Allen has elbow issues and has targeted his top playmaker only 50 times over the past five games. When the two do connect, the veteran wideout has delivered with the third-most receptions (94) and fourth-most receiving yards (1,239), with his 10 touchdown catches also third in the NFL.

The Dolphins are No. 22 on the passing defense DVOA chart and allow the 23rd-most passing yards, along with 1.5 TD receptions per contest. Justin Herbert threw for 367 yards and a TD in Week 14, and 49ers QB Brock Purdy gashed Miami for 210 yards and a pair of scoring strikes the week prior.

The best way to defeat Miami is through the air, and I don’t expect the weather to affect Allen all that much. The turf shouldn’t be that much of a problem, and I expect the Bills to move the chains against a Dolphins defense allowing the 22nd-most first downs per contest (20).

Buffalo should find its way into the red zone, where Diggs — with his fourth-most red-zone targets — should haul in his sixth TD of the season. 

Stefon Diggs Prop: Over 0.5 touchdown receptions (+145)

Allen on the ground

A 47.5-yard rushing total for Josh Allen seems like an early Christmas gift — and I’m all for him going Over that number.

The elbow issue has kept him from racking up the passing yards, but there’s nothing wrong with his feet. Allen has scampered for 236 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his last five and 625 yards with six scores this season. 

Allen has made a living running the football during his career, scooting for 2,953 yards and 37 TDs on 521 attempts, and his feet have played a huge role in each of the Bills' last three victories. 

Miami is eighth in rushing DVOA, but while the Dolphins may keep Bills running back Devin Singletary from doing his thing, Miami allows the second-most rushing yards to QBs (33), and that isn’t a good thing when facing the Bills' second-leading ground gainer. 

The forecast calls for the snow to end before game time, but we can’t be sure about that. Either way, we can be sure that Allen is a main focal point of the Buffalo ground game, making him a great bet to exceed 47.5 rushing yards Saturday. 

Josh Allen Prop: Over 47.5 rushing yards (-107)

Tough sledding for Waddle

Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle has had five targets or less in three of his last four outings, making his Under 4.5 receptions a good prop at -115.

Waddle has met or eclipsed most of his superb rookie season numbers but has dropped the third-most passes this season (six) and has caught just 17 of his previous 31 targets. 

Waddle has snagged a 28th-most 59 receptions for a seventh-best 1,003 yards with five scores this season but has snagged just 17 over his last five. He hasn’t found the endzone in his previous four games and averages less than his season average of 17 yards per catch.  

In fairness, the Dolphins speedster has been hampered by leg issues that have hurt his ability to get open, but the dropped passes and the lack of targets over the last few games are concerning.

Buffalo allows an average of 20 targets and 161 receiving yards per game to the WR position. With Trent Sherfield seeing a more prominent role in the passing game and vulturing his targets, I don’t believe  Waddle will get enough looks to exceed the 4.5-reception total. 

Jaylen Waddle Prop: Under 4.5 receptions (-112)

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