The AFC East provides an interesting Week 17 NFL betting option, as the Buffalo Bills look to lock up the AFC’s No. 2 seed this week when they welcome the Miami Dolphins, who also have a lot to play for. The Dolphins have a few paths to make the postseason for the first time since 2001. The simplest: beat the Bills.
Buffalo can drop to third in the conference with a loss and a Pittsburgh win, while the 10-5 Dolphins could miss the playoffs entirely if they lose and the Colts, Ravens and Browns win.
NFL odds had the Bills as 4.5-point home favorites but that number has fallen to a near pick’em as Pittsburgh will be starting QB Mason Rudolph and perhaps resting other starters. With the Steelers taking it easy heading into the playoffs, Buffalo could still earn the No. 2 spot with a Pittsburgh loss, making this game less meaningful for the Bills. The total has fallen to 44.5 after opening at 47.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Bills on Sunday, January 3 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s at Orchard Park on Sunday, with rain/snow starting in the morning and possibly lasting throughout the game. The wind will not be an issue. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB (Out), Jakeem Grant WR (Out), Elandon Roberts LB (Out).
Bills: Cole Beasley WR (Out), Tre'Davious White CB (Out), Jerry Hughes DE (Out), Mario Addison DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four against the AFC East. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bills.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Miami Dolphins have an 86-percent chance to make the playoffs after last week’s miracle win with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm after replacing Tua Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter. It won’t be Fitzmagic starting on Sunday though, as head coach Brian Flores has told the media that rookie Tagovailoa will again draw the start.
It might not mean much, as Buffalo could easily be resting some starters later in the game if the Steelers – who are definitely resting starters and are 10-point underdogs – are losing to the Browns. Buffalo will already be without WR Cole Beasley and possibly WR John Brown, so any more injuries heading into the postseason would be crippling for Josh Allen and the offense.
Miami has gotten healthier over the last two weeks as TE Mike Gesicki and RB Myles Gaskin have returned, but injuries to WRs Jakeem Grant and DeVante Parker have the team thin at receiver yet again. Tua and the offense have had to deal with missing skilled players lately, so this isn’t a huge downgrade for the Phins.
Miami had success on the ground last week (5.2 YPC) and should keep the Bills’ No. 17-ranked rush defense busy. Tagovailoa has not looked sharp in the passing game and may not finish the contest if the offense again becomes stagnant under the rookie signal-caller.
With what the Steelers are doing in Week 17, the Dolphins have more to play for than the Bills, hence the sharp 4.5-point line movement. Buffalo’s offense can ill afford to lose any more receivers and its run of 7-0 ATS could be coming to a halt on Sunday. There is also a good chance Buffalo backup QB Matt Barkley could make an appearance as well.
PREDICTION: Miami +1 (-115)
Over/Under Pick
Tagovailoa has not inspired Over betters with his recent play. Possibly without top receivers Grant and Parker, it could again be a run-heavy approach from Flores’ offense on Sunday.
Miami’s 6.1 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks ranks in the Bottom 10 and its 5.3 yards per play on the year also ranks in the bottom third. Since Week 11, Miami is scoring just 21 points per game—and that includes four games against Bottom-10 defenses.
The Buffalo offense has been one of the most exciting units to watch all year as Allen has silenced critics in his third year in the league. The Bills are 9-5-1 O/U on the year, but how hard are they going to push it Sunday with the playoffs around the corner and Pittsburgh throwing in the backups?
The final straw in our decision is the recent play of the Buffalo defense. Once a Bottom-10 unit, Sean McDermott’s stoppers have held opponents to fewer than 20 points in four of their last five games. Since Week 14, the Bills lead the league with a 3.9 yards per pass attempt allowed, which is 1.6 yards fewer than the Rams' league-leading mark of 5.5 for the season.
Without much receiving help, the Dolphins could struggle to move the sticks through the air against this Buffalo secondary at Bills Stadium in the regular-season finale.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
Double Result Prop Pick
The Bills are the best team in the league in the first half, if winning the first 30 minutes is the measurement. At 12-3 SU in the first half, the Bills have returned 23 percent of bettors’ investments on the first-half money line.
Buffalo will come out strong with a possible two home playoff games on the line. We have no problem taking them on the 1H ML, the only problem is no books have opened this market as of Friday morning.
This leaves us to be a little more creative which is what we do best. We already like the Dolphins to win but if we can bet the Bills to win the first half, but the Dolphins to win the game, we could be +750 richer if it hits.
Looking at the double result market, we are getting great value on Buffalo — Miami. If the Bills come out hot but rest some players later in the game, this +750 bet becomes real tasty.
PREDICTION: Double result: Buffalo Bills — Miami Dolphins (+750)
Dolphins vs Bills Betting Card
- Miami +1 (-115)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Double result: Buffalo Bills — Miami Dolphins (+750)
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