Dolphins vs Chargers SNF Prop Bets: Tua Takes Flight on Prime-Time

Two of the top picks from the 2020 NFL draft will meet Sunday night at SoFi Stadium as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Dolphins’ offense looks healthy after some early-season worries. With the Chargers getting all their receivers back, could this be a back-and-forth, fast-paced track meet?

Here are my favorite NFL player props for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Dolphins and Chargers. 

Also, make sure to check out Jason Logan's full SNF betting preview. 

Dolphins vs Chargers props

• Tagovailoa Over 282.5 passing yards (-110)
• Ekeler anytime TD (-125)
• Mostert longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-125)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Dolphins vs Chargers SNF props

Gun-slinging 

The Miami offense will have a much easier matchup this week as they go from the 49ers in Week 13 to the Chargers on Sunday night. That’s a jump from a Top-3 weighted DVOA defense to a Bottom-6 team. They might also get left tackle Terron Armstead back as he returned to practice (limited) this week, while Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill look good to go despite some questions about their availability early in the week. 

Miami could also be facing a pass defense that could be without its leader in safety Derwin James, who didn't practice on Thursday, as well as starting slot corner Bryce Callahan. All this could set the table for a big game for the Miami passing game in an indoor environment, with the week’s highest total at 52.5.

Tua Tagovailoa left last week’s game vs. the 49ers late in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, but reports are that he should be fine for Sunday night. His passing total sits at 282.5 yards but is on the rise after opening at 281.5. He’s topped this number in five straight games, and that includes last week vs. the 49ers, where he did it with just 18 completions. 

Now, vs. an easier and more injured defense plus the possible addition of an elite pass blocker in Armstead, Tagovailoa checks all the boxes for another big game. THE BLITZ projects for 316 yards, and the indoor setting with a fast offense is the icing on the cake for this Over.

Tua's averaging 285 yards per game, his 9.0 yards per attempt leads all QBs, and his deep ball completion percentage at 55.3% also paces the league. He has plenty of weapons, including Trent Sherfield, who has been busting huge gains of late, and Hill in the slot is a big issue if Callahan is out. 

Miami ranks in the Top 5 in passing percentage (63%), and with the Chargers playing at the second-fastest pace in football, there should be plenty of plays Sunday night which only helps Tua’s passing total.

Tua Tagovailoa Prop: Over 282.5 passing yards (-110)

Off-market

Getting Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown at -125 in a game with a total of 52.5 (while other books are as short at -200) is tough to pass up.

Ekeler has 12 scores on the season, which is two behind the league lead. He’s scored in seven of his last nine games and faces a Dolphins defense that allows 1.1 TDs to running backs on the season, and its 1.7 rushing TDs allowed per game on the road this season is the second-worst mark in the NFL.

The Chargers lean on Ekeler heavily in the red zone as he has 45 of the team’s 60 running back red-zone touches. His pass-catching skills also keep him on the field no matter the game script, which isn’t something you always get with true No.1 backs. 

This -125 number is off, as Ekeler has closed at roughly -170 in three straight games. Considering his usage and importance to this offense, there is a much better chance of him scoring than the 55.6% implied probability is stating.

Ekeler scoring is more of a 66% probability in my projections, and with a game with a total of 52.5, it could be even higher. I’d play this to -140 and give it some serious thought at -145 or -150. Shopping around is always beneficial to the bettor.

Austin Ekeler Prop: Anytime touchdown (-125)

Mostert mash

Raheem Mostert wrestled back the No.1 job in the Miami backfield last week vs. the 49ers, where he out-carried Jeff Wilson seven to one. He played the majority of the snaps (61%), while Wilson’s 36% snap share ranked third among Miami running backs. 

Mostert benefits from a fast, pass-first offense that defenses have to respect. This has allowed the RB to rip off 18 gains of 10-plus yards, or one every 7.3 carries. That’s a better rate than Saquon Barkley (9.3 carries) and puts Mostert in the company of Josh Jacobs (7.11 carries) and Miles Sanders (7.2 carries). Obviously, volume is the difference between Mostert and the other backs, but the Miami RB saw 14 or more carries in five straight games starting in Week 4, so we know Mike McDaniel can lean on him.

We also know the Chargers have one of the softest run defenses, which ranks amongst the worst five teams in EPA/rush, success rate, and DVOA. They could also be without their leading tackler in Derwin James, who was a DNP on Thursday. Even with 10 carries, Mostert could break a double-digit gain vs. this defense.

Mostert has a carry of at least 13 yards in six of his last eight games and now gets to face one of the worst rush defenses that might be missing its best player. With how this offense operates, he doesn’t need a heavy workload to top his longest rush of 12.5 yards. 

Raheem Mostert Prop: Longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-125)

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