Dolphins vs Chiefs Wild Card Player Props and NFL Bets: Cold Can't Keep Rice Down

Prop bet #1: Temper Tua expectations

When talking about the Chiefs it’s always been all about Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and this offense, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business. Spags is known for his defense playing its best ball as the season matures and he starts really scheming things up with his front seven.

This season, his unit ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback with it being one of the best pass defenses in the league thanks to a ferocious pass rush and a deep secondary. It’ll be able to give Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa all he can handle, and the freezing cold weather should only help.

The Chiefs are allowing only 176.5 passing yards per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL, have the second most sacks in the league (57), and are holding opposing quarterbacks to just six yards per attempt, third-fewest in the NFL. It’s a loaded defensive line with Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, and Michael Danna combining for 34.5 sacks.

Tagovailoa has struggled under pressure this year and he’s been dealing with far more of it since losing starting center Connor Williams for the season in Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans. While Tua does rank fourth in EPA per play, fifth in success rate, and fourth in CPOE this season, pressure and injuries to other playmakers has clearly had an effect.

Tagovailoa has been sacked just 1.7 times per game on the season, but since Week 14 that number has jumped to 2.4. He’s just 15th in EPA per play, 14th in success rate, and 10th in CPOE over his last five games of the season as a result. His average passing yards per game have dropped from 272 on the season to 233.4 over his last five contests. 

While Tua has thrown for at least 231 yards 13 times this season, he’s done it just twice in his last four games, and this is one of the best defenses he’s faced all year. Miami is also still dealing with injuries with both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle listed as questionable for the game. And then there’s the weather factor. 

All signs point to the Under for passing yards in the Tua Tagovailoa odds.

Tua Tagovailoa prop: Under 230.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Rough Pach'

This won’t be a walk in the park for either offense with the weather and these defensive matchups. While the cold does lend to running the ball, Isiah Pacheco has a tough task against the Dolphins defense.

Vic Fangio’s unit has been up and down all season and has been dealt a horrific hand with all the injuries, but it’s been one of the best against the run. It ranks just 15th in EPA per play on defense and 14th in EPA per rush, but over the second half of the season it’s elevated to 11th in EPA per play and second in EPA per rush.

Even with injuries really taking hold down the stretch, the Dolphins still ranked fourth in EPA per rush over the final four games. Miami gave up just 97.1 rushing yards per game this season, seventh-fewest in the NFL, and allowed just five running backs to run for more than 64.5 yards this season.

The first time these two teams played in Week 9 — a 21-14 win for Kansas City — Pacheco did run for 66 yards, but didn’t break a run longer than nine yards. He’s coming off his best game of the season in Week 17, but the former seventh-round pick has had issues with consistency this season due to injuries and poor offensive line play.

The Chiefs’ offensive tackles have been a huge problem this season, particularly at left tackle where free agent acquisition Donovan Smith was so bad that rookie Wanya Morris looked better in his absence. Smith is back from injury though, and the smooth-moving Morris is out with a concussion.

While the Dolphins have been hurt by losing starting edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips for the season, the interior trio of Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, and Raekwon Davis has been impressive. Those three have accounted for 23 TFLs and have been the heart and soul of this run defense, along with linebacker David Long and his nine TFLs.

This is a physical front seven, even without some of its starters, and Pacheco has only run for more than 64.5 rushing yards six times this season. I'm fading the Isiah Pacheco odds on his rushing yards this Saturday.

Isiah Pacheco prop: Under 64.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Wild Rice

No team has suffered more blatantly from poor wide receiver play than the Chiefs. It was so bad that it nearly derailed the defending Super Bowl champs’ season, but luckily for Reid and Mahomes, GM Brett Veach took a swing on Rashee Rice in the second-round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The pick was scrutinized at the time with many draftniks projecting Rice as a late third-round/early fourth-round talent, but the former SMU star has quieted the doubters and evolved into Mahomes’ go-to target. 

Not only did Rice finish second in receiving yards and third in receptions among rookies, but he finished third in the entire league in YAC. Rice was a threat to break a big play any time he touched the ball, and that’s going to be important in a game where weather plays the biggest factor.

Rice finished with 938 receiving yards on the season and had 653 of them come after the catch. His 8.3 YAC per reception was the second-most among wide receivers in the NFL behind just Deebo Samuel. 

Rice is averaging 58.6 receiving yards per game this season and has really emerged since Week 12. In his final six games of the season, Rice averaged 86.3 receiving yards per game.

This is also a Dolphins defense that’s struggled to stop the pass. It’s 13th in EPA per dropback on the season but has been slipping down the stretch. 

It ranks 17th in EPA per dropback since Week 10 and 30th in EPA per dropback over the final five games. It will also be without starting cornerback Xavien Howard while safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott are listed as questionable.

The Rashee Rice odds are depressed due to the weather, but bettors should be bullish here.

Rashee Rice prop: Over 62.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)