Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 9: Hill Shines as KC Stalls in Germany

One of the more exciting matchups in the NFL goes down on Sunday morning, in Germany of all places, with the Miami Dolphins out to prove they can defy the Week 9 odds and hang with the big boys, up against the Kansas City Chiefs, who will look to bounce back after one of their worst games in recent memory vs. the Broncos.

NFL odds favor Kansas City by 1.5 points, while the game has the highest total of the week at 50.5 points. Let’s dig into what we’ve seen from these teams up until this point of the season and how they match up while I provide you with my free NFL picks for Dolphins vs. Chiefs on November 5th. 

Dolphins vs Chiefs odds

Dolphins vs Chiefs predictions

While the Miami Dolphins have a true identity thus far in 2023, the same can’t be said for the Kansas City Chiefs, who’ve become increasingly difficult to figure out.

They’ve looked like their old selves at times, winning by multiple scores vs the likes of the Bears and Chargers, but they’ve also had trouble pulling away against the Jets, Vikings, and Broncos, while also losing to Denver in their second meeting of the season. From a big-picture perspective, they’re still one of the top teams in the NFL and are Super Bowl odds favorites, but we're seeing some red flags.

While the Kansas City defense looks like one of the best that they’ve had during the Patrick Mahomes era, there’s a clear disconnect on offense with Mahomes and his receivers. The run game has regressed since last season too and they’re struggling in the red zone, where they’re converting on a touchdown on 51.61% of red zone trips, down significantly from last season’s 71.08% mark.

As for the Dolphins, they’ve been almost flawless in their six wins, but the big knock on them is that those wins have come against the league's absolute bottom-feeders, while they got manhandled, for the most part, against top-tier competition in the Bills and Eagles.

Miami has been bitten by the injury bug, but they could get a big boost to their secondary on Sunday. Jevon Holland has cleared concussion protocol and Xavien Howard could also be healthy enough to join Jalen Ramsey, who made his debut last week. While Miami’s defense is nothing to write home about, at 14th in yards allowed per play, the trio has the potential to develop into one of the league’s top secondaries.  

Another defensive strength for the Dolphins has been their ability to pressure the quarterback, as they rank sixth in pressure percentage per dropback with the league's fourth-most sacks. Conveniently for them, Kansas City is allowing the 10th-highest pressure percentage, which is another area where they’ve regressed since last season. 

So, what exactly am I building up to here for my best bet? I’ll go a bit contrarian and take the Chiefs to go Under their team total of 26.5.

KC has surprisingly gone Under their team total in six of eight games this season. They’re averaging 23.4 points per game — 5.8 fewer points than they averaged last season. With Ramsey already looking 100% and the possibility of getting a few other defensive stars back, this is shaping up to be the best version of the Dolphins' defense that we’ve seen all season. 

One other factor to consider for your handicap is that the Dolphins arrived in Germany early on Tuesday morning, while the Chiefs won’t be departing Kansas City until Thursday afternoon. I think being better acclimated works a little bit to the Dolphins' advantage. We saw this when the Jaguars hosted the Bills in London, where Buffalo didn’t arrive until Friday morning and got off to a sluggish start.

My best bet: Chiefs team total Under 26.5  (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Chiefs team total Under 26.5

Tyreek Hill anytime TD

+236 at DraftKings

It’s taken over 600 words for me to mention the ‘Tyreek Hill revenge game’ but here we are, so let’s build around my best bet with the game’s most interesting storyline.

The former Chief and current Dolphin has scored eight touchdowns in eight games this season as he’s scored at least once in seven of the eight games. He’s also received double-digit targets on five occasions and has 13 total red-zone targets, tied for the third-most in the NFL.

As someone who follows the Dolphins extremely closely, I can tell you that this game against his former team is a massive deal for Hill. I also wouldn’t put it past Mike McDaniel to put some extra emphasis on showcasing Hill even more than usual.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dolphins vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has been slowly moving in the Dolphins' direction after being at 2.5 points early in the week. For Miami to cover, it’ll likely come down to how they perform against this Kansas City pass rush that ranks fourth in pressure percentage with the third-most sacks. 

It’s been well-documented that Tua Tagovailoa isn’t at his best when he’s forced to improvise. This was on full display in Miami’s two losses to the Bills and Eagles, who sacked Tua a combined seven times. That said, some reinforcements on the offensive line could be on the way, but we likely won’t know the status of Terron Armstead, who is the team’s top offensive lineman, until much closer to the game.

With that in mind, along with my prediction that the Chiefs will go Under their team total, I lean towards the Under on the full-game total of 50.5 as well. In what I consider to be a shock, the Chiefs have only played in one game so far this season that surpassed 50 combined points.

Dolphins vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs are 16-3 SU after a loss since Mahomes became the starter. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Chiefs.

Dolphins vs Chiefs game info

Dolphins vs Chiefs latest injuries

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