The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs' quest for a third Super Bowl in the past five years continues tonight when they host the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card Round.
While there’s a clear contrast between this year's Chiefs and other rosters during the Patrick Mahomes reign, they’ll have the luxury of dealing with an injury-ravaged Dolphins team that’s limping into the playoffs.
Kansas City is favored by four points in the NFL odds while the total for the matchup is sitting at 44.5. This will be a rematch from a Week 9 game in Germany the Chiefs won 21-14. Let’s dig into the matchup, starting with my favorite angle, which I’m building my best bet around.
Read on for my NFL picks for Dolphins vs. Chiefs on Saturday, January 13.
For more great analysis, check out our Patrick Mahomes spotlight and Dolphins vs. Chiefs prop picks!
Dolphins vs Chiefs predictions
For my best bet in this game, I’ll be backing the trend that refused to go away during the regular season.
The second-half total for this game is set at 21.5, which is well above the average combined score of 14.9 from second halves in Kansas City Chiefs games this season. That number takes even more of a dip to 13.8 at Arrowhead, which resulted in all nine home games going Under the second-half total.
It’s shocking to see Kansas City averaged just 7.5 second-half points during the regular season. This ranked 30th in the NFL and tied them with the New York Jets, who were a laughingstock on offense through most of the season. Strong defensive play, however, also contributed to the trend as they tightened up in the second half and allowed a league-best 7.4 second-half points with that number dipping to 6.9 at home.
As for the Miami Dolphins, their offense has been falling asleep in the second half down the stretch of the regular season. Their last four games have seen them score a total of just 21 points in the second half with just one second-half touchdown in the four games.
This second-half Under trend was on full display when the teams met in Week 9. The Chiefs were shut out in the second half, while the Dolphins scored 14 points. Neither offense was impressive in the game as they combined for just three trips to the red zone and converted on just 27.2% of third-down conversion attempts. Both Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa were unimpressive in the game, as they each failed to reach 200 passing yards.
Combine all this with frigid temperatures that could lead to more running than throwing that will keep that clock ticking, and I think everything lines up for this trend continuing on Saturday night.
My best bet: Second-half Under 21.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Second-half Under 21.5
Dolphins alt spread +10.5
Dolphins first-half team total Over 9.5
Let’s build around that second-half Under bet with a few modest plays to support the Dolphins.
We’ll give them a nice cushion outside of a bunch of key numbers in a game where they can be competitive like they were when the teams met in Week 9. Miami edged the Chiefs in yards per play 5.0 to 4.8 and one of Kansas City’s touchdowns occurred on a freak play where a Tyreek Hill fumble was returned for a touchdown on an iffy call as it wasn’t clear if he held the ball for long enough to be considered a catch.
Ice-cold weather is a major theme for the game, but don’t forget Miami looked good in winter conditions in two games at Buffalo last season. The Fins went down to the wire with the Bills in both games, one occurring in mid-December where Bills fans were pelting them with snowballs. The other was in the Wild Card Round, where they scored 31 points despite Skylar Thompson being the starting quarterback.
As for the Over 9.5 points in the first half, that's when Miami does its best and there’s not much of a fall-off in scoring output when playing on the road. The Dolphins are second in first-half points as the away team with 15.3 and got to at least 10 in road games against the Bills, Eagles, and Ravens this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dolphins vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
What a difference a few months makes. When the teams played back in Week 9, Miami was favored by one while the total was 51.5. Obviously, the location of the game is a big reason for the move on the spread, while Miami's avalanche of injuries plays a significant role as well.
The deck is stacked against the Dolphins and bettors recognize that as the spread is on the move since opening at 2.5 earlier in the week. Miami hasn’t been a good bet as an underdog, going 0-4 against the spread in its last four games as a dog.
The Chiefs are on a nice run of Unders on their home field where it's hit in six straight, with those games seeing an average combined score of 37.6. The Dolphins have also been in some lower-scoring games lately with three of their last four failing to cross 42 points. Kansas City’s last three home playoff games all went Under.
Dolphins vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 15 of 17 games this season and in all nine of their home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Chiefs.
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Dolphins vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, January 13, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
| Opening odds: | Chiefs -3, 46.5 O/U |
Dolphins vs Chiefs latest injuries
Dolphins vs Chiefs weather
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