Dolphins vs Eagles SNF Prop Bets: Swift Hits Paydirt for Backers

Prop bet #1: That other Swift

When Eagles GM Howie Roseman traded peanuts for D’Andre Swift there was a collective, “oh no,” exclaimed from the NFL world.

Swift, a former second-round pick out of Georgia, had always shown the ability to be a game-changing running back with his explosive athleticism, but simply couldn’t stay healthy in Detroit.

Stick him behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with a dynamic quarterback who opens up the run game and Swift has been one of the best backs in football. Through six games, he’s totalled 567 yards from scrimmage at 5.2 per touch, but with just three touchdowns.

With Jalen Hurts and the “brotherly shove” being almost like a cheat code, Swift doesn’t get the same goal-line opportunities as other premier backs, however, we can find value in that against the struggling Dolphins defense.

Miami is 23rd in EPA per play on defense and 25th in EPA per rush while giving up 114.5 rushing yards per game. More importantly, they’ve surrendered seven rushing touchdowns this season, eighth-most in the league and by far the most from a division leader.

After taking on the lead back role in Week 2 for the Eagles, Swift has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last five games. He’s averaging 21.4 touches per game in those five games and with his ability as a receiver, his chances of scoring only increase. 

Swift is the fourth-most targeted player by Jalen Hurts (27) and has the fourth-most catches on the team (23) — tied for the fifth-most catches by a running back this season. He’s also seen his workload in the passing game increase over the last three games with an average of 6.7 targets per game and six receptions per game with one receiving touchdown.

Given the Dolphins' penchant for allowing big plays, Swift’s speed and open-field elusiveness, and the Eagles' efficiency running the ball (third in EPA per rush), the former Bulldog will have opportunities to find the end zone.

D'Andre Swift prop: Anytime TD scorer (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Waddle's not waddling anymore

With boy genius Mike McDaniel calling the shots, the Dolphins are averaging over 100 more yards per game than the next team (498.7 to the Eagles’ 395). The ground game has been the story of the season with 181.8 rushing yards per game, but Tua Tagovailoa is also on pace to throw for 5,315 yards.

Superstar receiver Tyreek Hill is a huge reason why, with his league-leading 814 yards putting him on pace to hit well over 2,000 this season. But with a banged-up Eagles secondary, defensive coordinator Sean Desai is likely going to need to sell out to stop Hill’s speed.

Pulling Darius Slay to Hill and adding safety help over top will open things up for fellow star receiver Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has had a slower start to the season with nagging injuries and Hill hitting the big plays, but he’s poised to remind the country just how dynamic he’s been since entering the league in 2021.

Waddle has had at least 75 receiving yards in 16 of 38 games, and since McDaniel took over as head coach he’s hit it in 50% of his games (11 times in 22 games). Last season alone, he averaged more than 75 per game (79.8) and hit Over 75 in both Week 1 and 2 before injuries slowed him.

Now healthy, Waddle’s game-breaking speed and YAC ability will help him fly through a Philadelphia defense that’s struggled at times this season. 

The Eagles defense has taken a slight step back this year, sitting at 17th in EPA per play and giving up 232.2 passing yards per game, 13th-most in the NFL. However, they’ve been strong stopping the run allowing just 65.8 rushing yards per game, second-least in the league, with their front seven potentially pushing Miami to lean on their air attack more.

Jaylen Waddle prop: 75+ receiving yards (+170 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Hurts to love you

The guy Tua replaced in the National Championship game at Alabama has become one of the biggest names in the sport, and with his lower body strength and powerful offensive line, he’s basically changed the way we look at quarterback sneaks.

But despite the Eagles’ 5-1 record, Hurts has been a little shaky this season and is coming off a three-interception game against the New York Jets. Part of those struggles have to do with the Eagles throwing the ball more this season.

Through six games, Hurts has thrown 213 passes and is on pace to throw over 600 this season after hitting just 460 attempts last season. He’s averaging 35.5 passes per game this year after averaging 30.6 last year — the line on attempts for him in this game is 31.5 and the Over is -120.

Against a struggling Miami defense that’s giving up the 14th-most passing yards per game (229.2), Hurts could find himself in a shootout with the high-powered Dolphins offense that forces offensive coordinator Brian Johnson to continue to go to the passing game.

This season Hurts, is averaging exactly a half passing yard Over his line in this game at 257 and has thrown for more than 257 in his last four outings. In those four games, he’s averaged 294.7 passing yards on 39.2 attempts per game. 

With AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all expected to play, Hurts should be able to take advantage of a secondary that could be without Xavien Howard.

Jalen Hurts prop: Over 256.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)