The final course of Thanksgiving’s NFL betting feast features the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers in the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff on Thursday Night Football.
And just like a scoop of ice cream on your apple pie, anytime touchdown odds are one of the sweetest props to add to your NFL picks tonight.
I break down this non-conference clash and give my best Dolphins vs. Packers anytime touchdown picks on November 28 below.
Dolphins anytime touchdown pick
Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown
+155 at FanDuel
Tyreek Hill’s recent output has been tempered by the Miami Dolphins’ winning ways. Miami is on a three-game run, holding big leads in the second half of those contests.
That perpetuates more conservative play calling and we’ve seen Hill’s average yards per reception dwindle considerably compared to the first eight games. He has, however, still been able to find the end zone in two of those three victories.
Tonight's matchup in Lambeau Field is Miami’s toughest test since a three-point loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. The short spread and taller total set up a game script in which the Fins will be playing from behind and looking to Hill to break off big gains.
"The Cheetah" faces a Green Bay Packers defense that mixes man and zone but the secondary will again be without standout CB Jaire Alexander, who’s rated as their best coverage corner.
Hill is truly a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He has touchdown catches from one to 80 yards and gets the bulk of red-zone targets from Tua Tagovailoa, drawing 12 balls inside the 20-yard line for five RZ receptions (two for TDs).
Week 13 player projections have Hill forecast between 0.37 and 0.5 touchdowns, with my number coming out to 0.4. Some books have Hill as short as +145, but you can get the best bang for your buck at +155 over at FanDuel.
Packers anytime touchdown pick
Dontayvion Wicks anytime touchdown
+290 at FanDuel
Dontayvion Wicks gets a bump up the depth chart with fellow WR Romeo Doubs out for the Thanksgiving game. His snap counts have been below 40% the past two games but he’ll pick up more reps, considering Doubs leads the team in total snaps.
Wicks makes the most of his time and is tied for second in receiving touchdowns (four) and ranks third on the team in targets. He’s especially popular with Jordan Love inside the red zone, where Wicks is tied for the team lead in RZ targets with seven, hauling in four of those passes — three for touchdowns.
Wicks and the Packers passing game face a Miami defense that mixes man and zone but takes the field with injuries in the secondary, with starting CB Kendall Fuller out and Jalen Ramsey battling a knee injury on the short week.
His player forecasts for Week 13 project between 0.24 and 0.43 touchdowns, with my number calling for 0.28. His anytime TD prices sit as low as +275 with FanDuel offering a high of +290.
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