Dolphins vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and SNF Predictions: Pats Aren't Afraid to Pound the Rock

The New England Patriots flip from the frying pan into the fire, matching up another elite offense when they host the Miami Dolphins for Sunday Night Football in Week 2. NFL Week 2 odds have them labeled as 3-point home pups with the total sitting at 46.5.

New England did a great job defensively against the Philadelphia Eagles’ attack in the season opener, coming very close to upsetting the reigning NFC champions in a 25-20 loss.

The Dolphins bring another high-octane offense to Gillette Stadium, showcasing their scoring prowess in a shootout victory against the L.A. Chargers last Sunday in winning 36-34 and amassing 536 yards of offense.

Can Bill Belichick’s ballyhooed defense find a way to overcome this week's NFL odds and flank the Fins? I break down the SNF odds and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins at Patriots tonight. Be sure to check out our Sunday Night Football props and Tua Tagovailoa props.

Dolphins vs Patriots odds

Dolphins vs Patriots predictions

Bill Belichick’s stop unit should be respected but perhaps the best defense against the mighty Miami Dolphins attack is on offense.

New England will want to play a game of keep-away from Mike McDaniel’s team, which means a methodical pace and a steady dose of the rushing game. That’s something the Pats couldn’t utilize in Week 1.

Last week, New England abruptly found itself down 16-0 in the opening quarter due to turnovers and an interception return for a touchdown. That forced new/old offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to tear the run pages out of the playbook and go pass-heavy in order to catch up quickly.

At the end of the day, New England handed off on just over 28% of its offensive snaps — a notable downtick compared to last season when the Pats ran on more than 42% of plays.

They ran only 22 times with 12 of those carries going to RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who finished with 25 yards on the ground. He was utilized more in the passing game, collecting all six passes his way for 64 yards receiving.

Stevenson should be more of a factor on the turf in Week 2, as long as the Fins don’t race out to a big lead. And the tight spread paints a game script of a closer contest. His player projections range from 58 yards to a ceiling of 66, with my number landing just short of 62 yards rushing.

Stevenson’s Week 2 player props have his rushing yards Over/Under at 53.5 after moving up from the opener of 52.5 yards on Thursday. That's a notable decline from his Week 1 O/U of 60.5 rushing yards against a better defensive opponent.

Not only was Stevenson working against the Pats’ playcalling last weekend, but he was also listed as having an illness heading into Week 1 and was facing a solid Philadelphia defensive front, that checked New England to 3.5 yards per carry.

This Sunday, he takes on a Dolphins defense that was toasted by Los Angeles’ rushing game, hemorrhaging 233 rushing yards and ranking dead last in EPA allowed per handoff as well as success rate allowed per run (66.7%). Miami was 32nd in stuff rate and allowed the fifth-most yards after contact in the openers.

Stevenson could also see the bulk of the carries with fellow RB Ezekiel Elliott on Belichick’s shit list after fumbling in Week 1. As well, the New England offensive line is in rough shape and the run game will keep the Dolphins’ pass rush honest and give Mac Jones some breathing room.

Against the Dolphins last season, Stevenson shared the load with fellow RB Damien Harris. He had eight carries in both matchups with Miami, rushing for 42 and 25 yards in those outings. However, this current Fins defense is a much different look than the aggressive stop unit of 2022, with new DC Vic Fangio protecting against the bigger plays. 

My best bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 53.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Dolphins vs Patriots same-game parlay

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 53.5 rushing yards

Mac Jones Over 1.5 passing TDs

Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

+850 at bet365

Stevenson will feast on a soft Miami run defense and live up to those projections, are all north of this Week 2 total.

Mac Jones quietly played a solid game in Week 1 against one of the stingiest defenses in the land. He had three touchdown passes and I like him to connect for at least two more Sunday night.

Two weeks is too long to go without a penguin waddle in the end zone. New England will pick its poison and keep close tabs on Tyreek Hill, allowing Jaylen Waddle to find paydirt. He’s scored three TDs in four career meetings with the Patriots.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dolphins vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead lines made back in the summer listed Miami as a 2-point road favorite for Sunday Night Football.

After the Week 1 results, it seems the betting markets are putting a little more weight into the Dolphins’ offensive eruption and upset in L.A. than the “moral win” for New England. This spread opened at Find -2 but has drawn action on the road team.

As of Thursday, this AFC East rivalry has a spread of Miami -3 with one sharper market at -2.5. Covers Consensus shows 71% of picks on the Dolphins and my NFL power ratings did produce a spread closer to Miami -4.5.

This is a second straight road game for the Dolphins, after traveling to the West Coast in Week 1, but New England enters Week 2 with injuries across the offensive line. And I mean just about everyone. Calvin Anderson is the lone OL starter without any injury designation as of Thursday.

Those missing bodies up front will hinder the Patriots offense, which was a little better than what the scoreboard read in Week 1.

New England was 23rd in EPA per play in Week 1, whiffing on red zone chances and key third and fourth down spots. The Pats did put up 382 yards on offense against the Eagles defense, which was among the best in the NFL last year, but two turnovers also limited their effectiveness.

The Dolphins defense didn’t push back much against Los Angeles. These offenses went tit-for-tat, as Miami allowed 433 yards – 233 of those gains coming on the ground. Vic Fangio’s defense did a solid job limiting Justin Herbert and the passing game and came up big with pressure in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

Bill Belichick’s defense matches wits with Miami coach Mike McDaniel once again. New England limited the Dolphins to scores of 21 and 20 points in two meetings last season, however, Miami had to go with backup QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson in the Week 17 trip to Foxborough.

Tua Tagovailoa did play in the first meeting between these division foes last September passing for 270 yards with a touchdown in a 20-7 victory at home. Ninety-four of those gains went to WR Tyreek Hill, who had a monster Week 1 with 11 receptions for 211 yards and two scores against the Bolts.

This Over/Under opened as low as 46 points and has been bet up to as high as 47.5 before buyback came in on the Under and trimmed the number to 46.5. The look-ahead line in the summer was 45 O/U. Covers Consensus shows 64% of total picks on the Over.

The forecast calls for crappy weekend weather to move out of New England in time for Sunday night, with game-time temperatures in the mid-50s and winds gusting up to just 10 mph – a notable change from the Patriots’ rain-soaked Week 1 matchup.

Dolphins vs Patriots betting trend to know

If anyone tells you Bill Belichick is 14-9 ATS as a home underdog this week, I want you to slap them in the face. Then immediately apologize.

Let them know that while that trend is true, Belichick is actually 3-6 ATS as a home pup since Tom Brady left, including failing to cover against the Eagles as dogs last weekend. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.

Dolphins vs Patriots game info

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