This week’s NFL Sunday slate comes to a close with an AFC clash on Sunday Night Football featuring the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots at Foxborough.
Week 2 odds feature a stellar matchup between two quarterbacks who won National Championships at Alabama in Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Both players finished Week 1 Top 5 in passing yards in the league.
This game is massive for both teams, as they have aspirations to overcome the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East this season. Winning this game will be one step closer to achieving that goal.
Continue reading to find out our free NFL picks for Dolphins vs. Patriots on September 17th. Make sure to also read our full SNF game preview and Tua Tagovailoa prop picks before placing your wagers!
Dolphins vs Patriots SNF props
- Bourne Over 3.5 receptions
- Mostert Under 4.5 rushing yards
- Smythe Under 2.5 receptions
Picks made on September 15 at 11:05 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Dolphins vs Patriots SNF props
The Bourne Ultimatum
With the departure of Jakobi Meyers and injury to DeVante Parker, the top receiver spot in the New England offense was wide open. Kendrick Bourne impressed Bill Belichick in training camp and earned that role last week.
Against the Philadelphia Eagles, Bourne led all wideouts on the team in snaps, targets, and routes run. He played all but seven snaps and had 11 targets on 54 routes run. That led to six catches for 64 yards and two touchdowns for Bourne.
Game script allowed for Bourne to find so many opportunities, as Jones threw 54 passes. That will not be the usual, but this game could set up similarly for lots of passes. The Dolphins allowed 23 completions to the Los Angeles Chargers last week. I expect Bourne to see a fair share of those completions on Sunday night.
Kendrick Bourne prop: Over 3.5 receptions (-111)
Rough sledding
The Patriots just played one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL last week and held them to only 97 yards rushing on 25 attempts. On Thursday, that same offense ran for 259 yards on 48 attempts. New England makes it tough for opposing teams to get any sort of rhythm in the ground game.
Raheem Mostert is the clear Dolphins back with the injury to Jeff Wilson. He led the team with 10 carries last week, but he didn’t do much with them. He only had 37 yards on those carries and that included one rush for 12 yards.
Mostert only averaged 3.2 yards per carry in his two games against New England last season. For him to hit his rushing total in this game, he is going to need to break a long one or have a massive workload. The Under is the play against this stout defense.
Raheem Mostert prop: Under 45.5 rushing yards (+105)
No fly zone for TE
As good as the Patriots defense is against the run, it may be even better at preventing tight ends from getting involved in the pass game. Dallas Goedert was shut out last week despite running 36 routes for the Eagles.
Durham Smythe is the clear No. 1 tight end in Miami, as he played every single snap last week and ran 33 routes. However, it’s worth noting that it was three less routes than Goedert ran last week, and Smythe is not as talented as Goedert.
Smythe had only had three career multi-catch games before last week. He was only targeted three times in two games against the Pats last year. The starting tight end Mike Gesicki was only targeted five times though and had three total catches. Smythe is unlikely to add anther multi-catch game in this matchup.
Durham Smythe prop: Under 2.5 receptions (-165)
Not intended for use in MA.
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