The Tom Brady era ended when angry (and probably drunk) New Englanders flocked to their driveways to set No. 12 jerseys ablaze on Instagram following the New England Patriots’ Wildcard loss last January.
Flash forward nine months, and the Patriots are sizable favorites hosting the Miami Dolphins in Week 1… (everything seems normal) … with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback. 2020 bruh.
Newton-led New England is giving 6.5 points to a Dolphins squad that went 9-3 ATS in the final dozen games of 2019.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Patriots on September 13. **video
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots betting preview
Weather
Temperatures in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of showers and winds blowing south up to 10 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Dolphins: Xavien Howard CB (Probable), DeVante Parker WR (Probable), Preston Williams WR (Probable), Mike Gesicki TE (Probable), Kyle Van Noy LB (Probable), Byron Jones CB (Probable)
Patriots: N'Keal Harry WR (Probable), Stephon Gilmore CB (Probable), Jarrett Stidham QB (Out), Damien Harris RB (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 6-1 in Dolphins' last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Newton is a fun wrinkle to add to the Patriots’ playbook. For years, AFC East opponents haven’t had to worry about New England’s quarterback bolting for extra yards or breaking off a chunk run when the play breaks down.
Despite his recent ailments, defenses need to take account of Cam’s ability to run the ball. Newton didn’t do anything on the ground in just two hobbled starts in Carolina last year but rushed for 488 yards and four touchdowns in 2018.
Miami has no clue what’s coming at them – even more so in the COVID-19 contained ramp-up to Week 1. The Dolphins defense was terrible last season, giving up the most points in the NFL and allowing opponents to average 398 yards against. This is Year 2 under Brian Flores, so some improvement is expected, but any inside intel the former Pats coordinator had on New England is as worthless as a Gronk retirement party.
PREDICTION: New England -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
For all the fortune and glory Brady brought to New England, it was often on the back of the Patriots defense.
The stop unit ranked tops in yards allowed while checking opponents to 14 points per contest last year. But, if you couldn’t tell already, this isn’t 2019. The defense is without opt-outs Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung and lost Kyle Van Noy (now with Miami), Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton in the offseason. Needless to say, repeating those stingy numbers will be difficult this year.
Miami brought in Chan Gailey to run the offense and is going with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Week 1 starter, as the two have history going back to their days with the Jets and Bills. Fitzpatrick was throwing to a bunch of rusty lawn chairs – save for DeVante Parker – last season but should have better options and a solid backfield to lean on with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida coming aboard.
The 43-point total for Week 1 seems a little low with an empty shell of the Patriots defense and the Fins soft stop unit meeting a mystery in New England.
PREDICTION: Over 43 (-110)
Player prop pick
Running backs love to play with Cam. Sure, he may take some touches away, but when that option offense opens up space, having a capable ball carrier to take advantage of that versatility is huge. Sony Michel could be that guy – at least for Week 1.
He gushed to reporters about the joys of playing alongside Newton earlier this week, and with Damien Harris nursing a finger injury and Lamar Miller getting cut, Michel finds himself atop the depth chart in terms of true ball carriers.
He’s still working himself back into shape following foot surgery but posted big days versus Miami last season, totaling 157 yards on 39 carries with two touchdowns. The Dolphins gave up almost 145 yards on the ground per road game in 2019.
PREDICTION: Sony Michel Over 52.5 rushing yards (-120)
Dolphins vs Patriots betting card
- New England -6.5 (-110)
- Over 43 (-110)
- Sony Michel Over 52.5 rushing yards (-120)
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