Early Dolphins vs Rams Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 10

Monday Night Football is a coast-to-coast non-conference contest when the Miami Dolphins visit the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10.

Los Angeles is starting to pick up steam in the NFC standings, but my early Dolphins vs. Rams predictions tell you why taking Miami is the better play right now.

Read my NFL picks for Monday, November 11.

Dolphins vs Rams predictions

Early spread lean
Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Los Angeles Rams opened as 2.5-point home chalk for Monday Night Football, and the market has stayed below the key number of a field goal, with the vig on Rams -2.5 rising and potentially indicating a move to -3 later in the week.

Public sentiment is with Los Angeles, which has won three in a row, but the Rams were lucky to escape their Week 9 meeting with Seattle. The Seahawks were 1-for-4 in the red zone, including a pick-six thrown by QB Geno Smith into the Rams end zone and another late INT in the RZ. 

The Miami Dolphins have lost both games with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back under center but have been much more competitive. Miami collapsed for a 1-point loss to Arizona and then took the Bills to the wire, losing on a last-second FG that was set up by a bonehead hit on a defenseless receiver.

Miami’s offense has been great with Tua back, rating second-best in EPA per play and No. 1 in success rate per play since Week 8. That attack will test Los Angeles’ defense, which has gone from nasty to classy in the past three games.

I’m watching this spread for a move to a field goal and would jump all over Miami at the key number. As for the purposes of this early lean, I’ll side with Dolphins +2.5 as I believe this spread should be close to a pick’em.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 50.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis
As mentioned, Miami’s offense is clicking with Tagovailoa back at QB. The Dolphins have put up twin 27-point efforts in the past two games, boasting a collective 6-for-8 count inside the red zone in those contests.

The Fins defense is a different story. This stop unit continues to ooze gains, entering Week 10 rated 28th in Defensive DVOA. Miami has allowed a total of 58 points the past two games and faces a Rams offense playing with a full deck, getting WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury during this hot streak.

Matthew Stafford & Co. have been efficient during this three-game winning run, ranked 11th in success rate per play despite playing some solid stop units in Seattle and Minnesota. The Dolphins' defense doesn’t bring the same level of intensity as those past foes, especially when it comes to pass pressure (only 10 sacks).

Stafford is among the top-rated QBs in the league when kept clean, while his passing metrics dip dramatically when under duress. Given the state of the Fins’ stop unit, Stafford will have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart Miami.

This total is among the tallest numbers on the Week 10 board, but given the offenses involved and the fast indoor track at SoFi Stadium, I’m leaning toward a high-scoring finale in Week 10.

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