Monday Night Football is a bit of a mess in Week 16, with the New Orleans Saints forced to march out a fourth-string quarterback for their homestand against the Miami Dolphins.
That has bettors a little iffy on the side and the total for this primetime non-conference clash, which means Monday Night Football props are the play tonight. Books rolled out a lengthy list of alternative odds and proposition wagers, allowing NFL bettors to steer into the skid.
Here are our free NFL prop picks for Dolphins at Saints on Monday, December 27.
Dolphins vs Saints prop picks
- Special Teams/Defensive touchdown: Yes (+225)
- Tua Tagovailoa anytime touchdown (+500)
- Ingram Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dolphins vs Saints MNF props
Cash in on chaos
The Dolphins are a dangerous defense when their opponent has the first stringer under center — so they’re especially spikey when NOLA has to go this far down the depth chart at quarterback.
Miami has eight interceptions and four forced fumble recoveries during its six-game winning streak and has scored two defensive touchdowns on the season. Those stats reflect the quality of QB the team has faced during this run and one could make a case that Book is probably the worst — or at least the most inexperienced — passer in that span.
Miami is not without turnover faults of its own either. The Dolphins have coughed up the ball 23 times (seventh-most) and take on a very steady Saints stop unit that has harvested 15 of its total 19 takeaways from interceptions.
Just last week, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa threw two INTs versus the Jets with one of those picks going back to the house for six points.
Things could get ugly on Monday night but we’re dressing up those careless plays with a prop play on a defensive or special team score.
PICK: Special Teams/Defensive touchdown: Yes (+225 at bet365)
Tua two-step TD
The Saints have dialed up the pressure on the passer the past two games, recording seven total sacks in wins over the Jets and Buccaneers. New Orleans has been able to get those sacks with primarily a four-man rush, thanks to solid coverage downfield, giving the defensive line extra time to collapse the pocket.
New Orleans is also the premier red-zone defense in the NFL, giving up a touchdown just 43.6% of the time when inside its own 20-yard line.
What does it all mean for Miami?
The Dolphins are one of the better red-zone offenses in the NFL, cashing in for six points on 63% of RZ attempts and have a Plan B in Tagovailoa, who can make magic with his legs when things break down.
Tua has rushed for just three touchdowns this season but with the NOLA run stop tough to budge and the RZ defense tightening its belt, the Fins’ top option staring at the end zone is a QB keeper.
The Saints have allowed five rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks on the season — tied with seven other teams for most in the league — and the return on a Tua touchdown is too good to pass up.
PICK: Tua Tagovailoa anytime touchdown (+500 at FanDuel)
Leaving your Mark
With a green QB under center on the big Monday night stage, New Orleans will try to take the pressure off Book as much as it can. That means plenty of work for the running backs, and extra touches for veteran ball carrier Mark Ingram.
Ingram carried the ball nine times for only 10 yards against Tampa Bay last week but faces a Dolphins defense tonight that is not at that same level of run stop prowess.
Miami sits middle of the road in terms of yards allowed per carry and Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders while ranking 20th in EPA allowed per handoff on the season.
Ingram’s backfield partner Alvin Kamara will also see plenty of touches tonight but could be more involved in the short passing game, keeping things simple for Book. New Orleans was relentless with the run against the Bucs last week, handing off 31 times despite picking up only 61 total yards on the ground.
Sean Payton will attack Miami with that same approach but see much better results, getting good production from Ingram, who has 243 rushing yards in six games since rejoining the Saints (40.5 per game). And with dual-threat QB Taysom Hill out with COVID, the running plays will go to the running backs.
Ingram’s rushing total is set at 28.5 yards for tonight. He’s rushed for 28 yards or more in four of his six games with NOLA and has eclipsed that prop total seven times in his 13 outings in 2021.
PICK: Mark Ingram Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
