The Denver Broncos are riding (mile) high after a huge upset at Dallas last Sunday. The Broncos take on another NFC East opponent in Week 10, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
Denver opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and that spread has ticked up to as high as a field goal with early bets on the Broncos. The Eagles, who have only three total wins, have played better on the road (+7.4 scoring margin - 7th) with that trio of victories all coming in the role of visitor.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Eagles at Broncos on November 14.
Eagles vs Broncos odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Denver hit the board as a 2.5-point home favorite following its win at Dallas in Week 9 and early money on the home side has lifted this spread to -3 at some sportsbooks. The total opened at 44.5 points and has slid to 44 as of midweek.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Eagles vs Broncos picks
Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 10:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Eagles vs Broncos game info
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Eagles at Broncos betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Eagles: Miles Sanders RB (Out), Brandon Brooks G (Out), Reid Sinnett QB (Out), Kary Vincent DB (Out), Tay Gowan CB (Out), Jack Anderson OL (Out), Marlon Tuipulotu (Out).
Broncos: McTelvin Agim DE (Out), Mike Boone RB (Out), Garrett Bolles T (Out), Bobby Massie T (Out), Essang Bassey CB (Out), Mac McCain CB (Out), Jamar Johnson S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 35-16-1 in Broncos' last 52 games as favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Broncos.
Eagles vs Broncos predictions
Eagles +3 (-110)
Philadelphia fell to 3-6 with a loss to the L.A. Chargers at home in Week 9, but despite the 27-24 final score, there were plenty of positives to come out of that matchup and it appears as if the Eagles are finding their offensive identity.
This RPO-heavy playbook has handed out a hefty dose of the running game over the past three weeks, handing off on almost 63 percent of its snaps. Philadelphia has used the three-headed monster of Boston Scott, Jordan Howard and dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts to grind out those gains, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and boasting an EPA per handoff of +0.039 in that span.
That ground-and-pound approach runs into a Denver squad ranked No. 22 in Rush Defense DVOA and limping into Week 10 with some key bodies possibly missing on the stop unit. The Broncos have allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the last three games (second-most in the NFL) and face a tricky Philly playbook. The last time Denver took on an RPO-rich attack and a QB with wheels like Hurts, it lost 23-7 to the Baltimore Ravens back in Week 4.
On top of those bad defensive matchups, the Broncos run the risk of a massive letdown spot following Week 9’s stunner over Dallas. Denver could also get caught looking ahead to a much-need bye in Week 11, with injuries plaguing this roster since Week 1. Some books are still dealing Denver -2.5 (-120) but if you can shop for Eagles +3, grab it. If not, wait it out and that spread should get there (or just buy Philadelphia +3).
Under 44 (-110)
Philadelphia’s offense isn’t the only unit making strides at the midway mark of the season. The Eagles defense has stepped up in recent weeks as well, boasting an EPA per play allowed of +0.029 since Week 7 – compared to a season-long metric of +0.043.
Some of that credit does fall on the offense improving its average time of possession and limiting the exposure of the stop unit. However, a nod has to be given to the run stop as well, which has clamped down on opposing running backs to the tune of just 3.6 yards per carry and an EPA per handoff of -0.168 – seventh-lowest since Week 7.
The Broncos' offensive attack runs a sound balance between pass and run but picks up just 5.2 yards per play over their last three contests. Denver runs a very methodical playbook behind Teddy Bridgewater, averaging a play every 29.98 seconds (third-lowest) and chewing up 32:18 in TOP per game (second-most).
This is by no means an explosive attack, with only 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more (and just three of 40-plus), and Denver does have some injury issues on the offensive line, which could slow down what little pop this offense does possess. Philly is a much stiffer test than Dallas’ defense - 6.0 yards allowed per play (28th) vs. 5.4 (10th) - and keeps everything in front of it, with few blitzes and a lot of two-high safeties.
And to toss in a tasty non-conference NFL betting trend for 2021: AFC vs. NFC games have produced a 15-28-1 Over/Under count this season (65% Unders).
Boston Scott anytime touchdown (+300)
Since returning to action in Week 7, Scott has rumbled for 124 yards on 29 carries along with three rushing touchdowns.
On the year, the veteran RB has seven red-zone handoffs — scoring TDs on three of those runs — and faces a Denver defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA inside their own 20-yard line, including 28th in goal-to-go defense.
Scott is a bit of risk, since the Eagles have plenty of red-zone rushing options in Hurts, Howard, and even rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had a 1-yard TD against the Bolts last Sunday. But we like Scott’s value considering he’s shown a nose for the end zone in limited outings this season.
