The NFL concludes Week 3 with a pair of games tonight, beginning with a clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Both teams have jumped out to 2-0 starts and while that was expected for the Eagles, the Bucs have far exceeded expectations under new quarterback Baker Mayfield.
NFL odds opened with the Eagles as 6.5-point road favorites before that spread slimmed to -4.5. It's time to dissect the MNF odds and break down this NFC affair with my best free NFL picks for Eagles vs. Buccaneers on September 25.
Be sure to also check out our favorite Eagles vs. Buccaneers prop bets alongside our Mike Evans odds and props spotlight before placing your wagers!
Eagles vs Buccaneers odds
Eagles vs Buccaneers predictions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-0 to start the year, and while it might be easy to dismiss those wins because they came against the Bears and Vikings, the Philadelphia Eagles beat that same Vikings squad last week. The Bucs offense was expected to flounder this season after the retirement of Tom Brady, but Baker Mayfield has since impressed under center.
Mayfield is coming off a 315-yard passing performance against the Bears and he's been incredible on third downs this season, posting an incredible passer rating of 132.1. He has also done a fantastic job under pressure, completing 71.4% of his passes and ranking fifth in the league in passing grade according to Pro Football Focus. This will be extremely important on Monday night when the Bucs face an Eagles defense that brings a ton of heat.
The Eagles have surrendered more than 300 yards through the air to both of their opponents this season, and they're also dealing with a few key injuries on that side of the ball. Linebacker Nakobe Dean and slot corner Avonte Maddox are both on the IR while defensive tackle Jordan Davis, end Josh Sweat, LB Zach Cunningham, and safety Terrell Edmunds are all questionable for Monday.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have been getting the job done, but it hasn't been necessarily pretty under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has passed for just 363 yards through two games, and while Philly's ground game has been fantastic, the Bucs do a good job at defending the run.
Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the league in defensive rush EPA while limiting foes to 3.3 yards per carry. Todd Bowles also does an excellent job of getting his defenses prepared for mobile QBs, which we saw in Week 2 against Justin Fields and the Bears.
The Eagles benefited from four fumbles from the Vikings last week, but the Bucs do a much better job of holding on to the ball and don't have a single turnover this year. Philly might be able to win on Monday night, but Tampa Bay won't make it easy for them and should be able to cover this spread at home.
My best bet: Buccaneers +4.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Buccaneers +4.5 (-102)
Baker Mayfield Over 226.5 passing yards (-114)
Rachaad White Under 49.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Eagles allowed a league-low 171.6 passing yards per game last season, but through their first two games of the new campaign, they're surrendering 326 yards per game through the air. The Bucs haven't had much success on the ground with running back Rachaad White, so expect them to ultimately lean on a passing attack that centers around Mayfield throwing to Pro Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
White churned out 73 yards against a weak Bears' run defense last week, but he picked up just 39 yards on 17 carries against the Vikings in Week 1. He has -45 rushing yards over expected this season, which is currently the worst mark in the league. The Bucs' lead RB will have a tough time finding room against an Eagles stop unit that ranks third in the league in rush EPA.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Eagles favored by 6.5 points, but money has since come in on the Bucs who now sit at +5. The total opened at 45, ticked up to 46 momentarily, and is now back down to 45.
The Eagles have managed to avoid a Super Bowl hangover so far, but they haven't looked quite as dominant as last year when Hurts looked like one of the best QBs in the league. All that said, they did beat the Patriots and covered as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 1, and then pushed as 6-point faves last week when the Vikings scored a last-minute touchdown.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, September 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers +7, 45 |
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