Fresh off their first win of the year and sitting on top of the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Heinz Field and take on a 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers team that is coming off a postponed game in Week 4.
The Steelers opened as a touchdown-favorite and that number has come off the seven and now sits at -7.5. The total opened above the key number of 47 (47.5) but has since fallen to a flat 45. The high probability of rain on Sunday could be a factor in the total dropping.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Eagles vs. Steelers on Sunday, October 1.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview
Weather
It could be wet in Pittsburgh, with a 60 percent chance of precipitation for Sunday. Winds won’t be a big factor, blowing east up to 10 mph, and temperatures are expected to be in the low-70s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Eagles: DeSean Jackson WR (Out), Jason Peters G (Out), Dallas Goedert TE (Out), Alshon Jeffrey WR (Out), Avonte Maddox CB (Out).
Steelers: Marcus Allen LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under has hit in four of the last five games the Steelers have played at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Steelers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Philadelphia won outright last week as an 8.5-point underdog against an equally undermanned 49ers team. The shorthanded Eagles managed to pile up even more injured players on Sunday night, as tackle Lane Johnson was on the sidelines more than the field and their best defensive back, Darius Slay, also didn’t finish Week 4. It isn’t even fair that the walking-wounded squad has to face an undefeated Steelers team that has had 13 days of rest for Sunday’s matchup.
Pittsburgh owns the league’s third-best DVOA defense and the No. 1 rush defense. It will be more than tough for Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz to move the ball with a decimated O-line and a lack of skilled players against a defense that is giving up the second-fewest yards per play.
Pro Football Focus' highest-rated LB, T.J. Watt, will be a constant presence in the Eagles’ backfield as Pittsburgh is averaging five sacks per game (1st) and the Eagles are allowing 3.5 sacks per contest (2nd-most). If Pittsburgh gets up, we don’t see Wentz & Co. getting easy points against this defense at home — and possibly in poor conditions.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game, with Philly much worse at 28th. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 21 points to any of its three opponents this year and its league-best sack rate is a big reason for it.
This Philly offense could be staring down some third-and-longs, putting Wentz into a position to face a tough pass rush with perhaps the league’s worst offensive line: there is a reason the Under money has dropped this total below 47.
The Steelers have put up an average of 27 points against the Texans, Giants and Broncos. Those three opponents all rank 18th or worse in DVOA defense as Ben Roethlisberger has yet to play a Top-10 defense this year and even though this Philly defense is hurt in nearly every position, they held San Francisco to 14 points in the first 45 minutes of Week 4.
Rain is predicted in the forecast in Pittsburgh on Sunday, which is also a factor in our decision on the Under. We would obviously like to have this total at 47 or above but aren’t afraid to take the Under 45.5.
PREDICTION: Under 45.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Wentz has been sacked 14 times through four games, which is the third-most in the league. He has literally been running for his life with a makeshift offensive line and over the last two weeks, he's scrambled for 102 yards — and has scored a rushing TD in three straight games. The Philly QB is second on the team in rushing this year and Wentz is a big reason Philadelphia has the best record in its division (LOL).
Last week, Wentz’s rushing total was set at a profitable 16.5 yards and his anytime TD could be found at +700 just before kickoff. The Steelers are going to be pressuring Wentz all game, which will create even more rushing opportunities for the QB. Listen to the QB-rushing whisperer.
PREDICTION: Carson Wentz Over 14.5 rushing yards (-120) and Anytime TD (+600)
Eagles vs Steelers betting card
- Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
- Carson Wentz Over 14.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Carson Wentz anytime TD (+600)
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