Falcons vs Buccaneers Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Tampa's Offense Breaks Out

Week 5 of the NFL season is already here, and we have a terrific NFC South matchup for you when the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons meet the 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

These sides are trending in the opposite direction as Atlanta enters Sunday riding a two-game winning streak, while Tampa Bay is hoping to end a two-game slide. Who will win this important divisional clash?

Find out in my free NFL football picks and predictions for this showdown between the Falcons and Buccaneers on Sunday, October 9.

Falcons vs Buccaneers best odds

Falcons vs Buccaneers picks and predictions

Atlanta has been the surprise team for NFL bettors, going 4-0-0 ATS. With a bit of luck, the Falcons could be undefeated, as their losses were by a combined five points.

The Falcons took a huge hit when leading rusher Cordarrelle Patterson was lost to a knee injury. Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier picked up the baton and carried the ball 10 times for 84 yards against a very good Browns rushing defense.

Atlanta should be able to run the football on this Bucs' defense. Tampa Bay is allowing an average of 107 rushing yards per game and gave up 189 rushing yards with a pair of TDs in their loss to the Chiefs. Falcons QB Marcus Mariota is having a decent season with 779 passing yards, alongside four TDs. Mariota can tuck the ball and go, and he’s rushed for an additional 95 yards and a pair of scores.

Rookie wide receivers Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus have been superb, and TE Kyle Pitts remains a lethal threat despite a slow start to the season. This gives Mariota three competent big-play receivers who could all have big days on Sunday.

The Bucs' passing defense has been stout, but Mariota has had success against a couple of good secondaries this season. While I don’t expect Mariota to win this thing outright with his arm, his downfield weapons could still beat Tampa Bay's secondary deep a couple of times for big gains. 

Tom Brady can’t be a happy man, and a dissatisfied Brady with his big weapons getting healthier is not a good thing to see if you are the Falcons. The Buccaneers have been banged up, but with their full complement of wideouts (minus Breshard Perriman) put 31 points on the board in a losing cause to the Chiefs.

Mike Evans scored a pair of TDs, Chris Godwin saw extended snaps, and we even witnessed a glimpse of how good the Bucs' offense can be when healthy. Brady should come out firing, and he’s going to gash a leaky Falcons secondary allowing 1.8 TD passes per game.

Atlanta has responded each and every time it's been scored upon this season, and four first-half TDs aren’t unreasonable. Let’s get the +EV and the first half Over.

My best bet: First half Over 24 (+115 at Pinnacle)

Falcons vs Buccaneers spread analysis

I wanted to lay the points and play Tampa Bay, but that spread has ballooned up to -10, which is just a bad number all the way around.

The Falcons fight like tigers and are 4-0-0 ATS because of it. They may not win on Sunday, but I don’t see Tampa Bay blowing them out either. We’ve all witnessed the Buccaneers' inconsistencies last weekend, and the injuries have been a big part of Tampa Bay’s woes.

The Bucs are No. 15 in offensive DVOA, and that’s just unacceptable for an offense with this many playmakers. Brady and Co. should put up better numbers this week against a very suspect Falcons secondary, but Atlanta will continue to be frisky and keep it close. 

Falcons vs Buccaneers Over/Under analysis

The number opened at 48 points and has moved to its present O/U of 46.5. We might have lost out on the spread, but we definitely lucked out with the total. Aside from the flashy receivers, we have a couple of big-play running backs featured Sunday.

Leonard Fournette has had a tough go over his last few with a nagging leg injury, but he has a good matchup facing an Atlanta defense that's currently allowing 126 rushing yards per contest.

Allgeier averaged 8.4 yards per carry, including a 42-yard blast against a decent Cleveland defense. Kansas City gashed the Bucs' defense for 189 rushing yards, and the rookie could have himself a day.

The Over is also 8-2-0 over the past 10 meetings between these two teams.

Falcons vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tampa Bay. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.

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