It may be time to wave the white flag for the Atlanta Falcons after blowing another muti-TD lead last week. The pain train could continue into Week 16, as the eliminated Falcons travel to Arrowhead Stadium and take on the league’s best team in the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs sit on top of the AFC, but bettors have not been happy with Patrick Mahomes’ squad of late, with the Chiefs failing to cover a game since Nov 1. K.C. also won’t have the services of rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who injured his ankle last week and won’t return until the playoffs.
NFL odds have the defending champs as 10.5-point favorites with that number trending south after opening at -11.5. The total has jumped a full point to 54 after opening at 53.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Falcons vs Chiefs on Sunday, December 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
Weather
Arrowhead Stadium will have some wind on Sunday with 10 mph breezes and gusts up to 25 mph. The temperature is expected in the low-50s with no rain in the forecast. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Falcons: Julio Jones WR (Out), James Carpenter G (Out), Marlon Davidson DT (Out), Darqueze Dennard DB (Out), Alex Mack C (Out).
Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB (Out), Deandre Baker CB (Out), Damien Wilson LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Chiefs have had a half-time lead in just one of their last four home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Chiefs.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Chiefs have failed to cover their last six games, which includes being a double-digit favorite twice over that stretch. Despite this, the Chiefs have ripped off nine straight wins and have a chance to push that to 11 with two games against sub-500 teams to close out the season.
Kansas City will get to game plan against an Atlanta squad that is among the worst rushing teams in the league and could possibly be without WR Julio Jones once again in Week 16.
With the emergence of receivers Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, not having to worry about the All-Pro Jones would be a huge break for Kansas City’s underrated pass defense.
The Chiefs defense matches up well against the Falcons, as Atlanta’s inability to run the ball works well with the Chiefs’ No. 30 rush defense. Atlanta has just 177 total rushing yards over the last three weeks and QB Matt Ryan is throwing nearly 40 balls a game. He faces a defense that is allowing under 20 completions and averages 1.5 takeaways per match.
The Falcons have won six games ATS this year, but weak opponents (outside of Tampa Bay) may be the reason, as the covers came against Dallas, Minnesota, Carolina, Denver and Las Vegas. None of those teams are currently above .500.
Atlanta has just had too many big letdowns this year, and a trip to Arrowhead may not be the best medicine for their wounds. We don’t love the Chiefs’ recent play against the spread, but are liking the Falcons to lay a dud as their disappointing season is drawing to a close.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Chiefs are thin at running back and the Falcons can’t run to save their lives. Add it together and we should get a pass-happy approach to Sunday’s game.
The Falcons broke a streak of four straight Unders, as the offense packed on 27 points against one of the better defenses in the league in Tampa Bay. The defense also did its part by giving up all 31 points in the final two quarters.
The lone bright spot to Atlanta’s season has been its rush defense that ranks as the fourth-best unit in the league. This is also great news for the Over, as K.C. will be without Edwards-Helaire and could be forced to pass more than usual. RB Le’Veon Bell has been adequate as a runner this season and the Chiefs are thin at the position and currently shopping for depth.
QB Patrick Mahomes has played his best football at home this year. His 113.4 QB rating is five points better than on the road and his 17-1 TD-to-INT ratio over his six home games bests his 19-4 ratio over his eight road games. This is an offense that leads the league in yards per play and is scoring nearly four TDs per game.
With the strengths of each team signaling a higher passing volume, we can’t shy away from the obvious square bet of Over, even with the week’s second-highest total.
PREDICTION: Over 54 (-110)
Double Result Prop Pick
We are really digging into the prop market as we look for some plus-money action.
Atlanta has been one of the best first-half teams, as they are 9-5 SU in the first 30 minutes. The sad thing is this is a 4-10 SU football team meaning, they have blown five half-time leads. If the Falcons’ season could be described in one word, it would be “collapsed”.
Coincidentally, the Chiefs haven’t been a great first-half team, despite the one-loss record. Kansas City has trailed or been tied in five of their 15 first halves and has gone on to win four of those five games.
The first-place Chiefs lost the first half and came back to win three weeks ago at home versus the Broncos, and three weeks prior to that they did the same thing against the Panthers. In fact, the Chiefs have had just one half-time lead over their last four home games (3-1 SU).
We don’t suggest playing this prop with your KC -10.5, but if you’re looking for some bigger odds, Atlanta to win the first half but lose the game isn’t a terrible idea.
PREDICTION: Atlanta — Kansas City (+450)
Falcons vs Chiefs Betting Card
- Kansas City -10.5 (-110)
- Over 54 (-110)
- Double result: Atlanta — Kansas City (+450)
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