After losing outright In Week 9 as double-digit favorites, the Dallas Cowboys will look to rebound against an underrated Atlanta Falcons team that has won three of its last four and is coming off a walk-off win in New Orleans last week as 7-point dogs.
Dallas was a perfect 7-0 ATS before last week’s clunker and opened as 10-point home favorites in Week 10 against Atlanta’s No. 32 defense. The total opened at 52 and has since passed the key number of 54 to 54.5.
If you’re betting this game on Sunday, November 14, then make sure you read our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Falcons vs. Cowboys first.
Falcons vs Cowboys odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
There has been a lot of early movement in this Week 10 matchup. Dallas was -9.5 on the look-ahead, opened at -10 and can be found as low as -9 and as high as -10. We’d expect this number to stay at or above -9 for teaser protection. The total has seen significant movement after opening at 52 and has been bet up to 54.5 by Tuesday morning with a lot of sharp money hitting the early Over. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Falcons vs Cowboys picks
Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Falcons vs Cowboys game info
• Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Falcons at Cowboys betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Falcons: Calvin Ridley WR (Out), John Cominsky DE (Out), Jonathan Bullard DE (Out), Lee Smith TE (Out), Kendall Sheffield CB (Out).
Cowboys: Tyron Smith T (Out) Blake Jarwin TE (Out), Demarcus Lawrence DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Cowboys.
Falcons vs Cowboys predictions
Falcons +10 (-110)
The Cowboys come into Week 10 as heavy home favorites for the second straight week but will hope for better results than in Week 9. The Denver Broncos bullied the Cowboys last week and led 30-0 at one point. The Dallas offense had the ball for just over 18 minutes as Mike McCarthy’s defense couldn’t get off the field and gave up over 400 total yards to a Denver offense that sits in the bottom half of the league in yards per game and yards per play.
Dak Prescott finished 19 for 39 after missing Week 8 with a calf injury but will be one more week healthier come Sunday. He’ll get to face possibly the worst defense in the league in Atlanta and should move the ball easily with his No. 3 offense by success rate. But can this Dallas defense, which generates pressure at a bottom-10 rate, shut down the Atlanta passing game?
Atlanta is coming off an outright win as 7-point dogs versus the Saints last week that saw the Falcons hold a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter before the New Orleans offense got some of it back against a soft and prevent ATL defense. Even without Calvin Ridley for the second straight week, the offense managed a solid 6.4 yards per play against the Saints’ stout defense and scored TDs in three of five trips in the redzone. The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games and face an overrated Dallas defense that sits 28th in yards per play against at 6.0 ypp. Dallas has given up 123 points over its last five games including three bottom-eight offenses (NYG, CAR and MIN) by success rate. Atlanta should be able to move the ball well Sunday, as well.
Both of these teams have played the same opponent three times. Both Atlanta and Dallas went to Tampa Bay where Dallas covered as 10-point dogs while Atlanta failed to cover at +13.5. Both teams have also hosted the Panthers recently with Atlanta losing as 2.5-point favorites and Dallas winning as 3.5-point favorites. Comparing those lines we see a lot closer of a spread than Sunday’s 10 points. We don’t like Dallas’ defensive track record against average offenses and at -10, we are taking the points. The Falcons have played competitively for six straight weeks.
Over 54.5 (-110)
The spread might be a hard trigger to pull for some, but this Over has been one of the more sharp-bet totals of the week despite it being the highest total on the board at opening.
The Dallas offense sits fourth in explosive play rate percentage and could have the services of receiver Michael Gallup for the Sunday showdown. Gallup has been out since a Week 1 calf injury and his addition to an already loaded Dallas passing attack could have Atlanta’s bottom-three pass defense struggling to keep up.
Atlanta’s rush defense isn't much better and ranks third-last in success rate. Ezekiel Elliott's availability shouldn't bother Over backers as Tony Pollard could cut up this defense just as well. Dak and the offense could have their way on Sunday especially considering the Atlanta pass rush is also non-existent and gets pressure at a bottom-three rate.
The Falcons’ offense is built for the Over, as well. Atlanta has hit the Over in four of its last five games and is scoring 25.2 points per game on the road this year which includes games at Tampa Bay, at the Giants, at Miami and at New Orleans. The Falcons have the second-worst run game in the league and have no problem abandoning it. Matt Ryan has attempted at least 35 passes in six of his eight games this year and has topped 300 yards in three of his last four matches which were basically without his best receiver in Ridley.
Both clubs sit in the Top-10 in third-down conversion percentage, Dallas has the lowest punts-per-play mark in football, both offenses rank in the top half in red zone touchdown percentage while both defenses rank in the bottom-10 in defensive red zone touchdown percentage. Put it all together and you can see why this total is still moving north.
Falcons first quarter +3.5 (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys have the league’s worst first quarter defense at 6.4 points allowed per game. They’ve given up 27 1Q points over the last three games and have allowed at least one TD in each of those games. They’ve failed to hold an opponent to zero points in the first frame this season.
The Dallas offense also got into trouble last week and failed to convert on a pair of first quarter fourth downs. McCarthy might have to readjust his game plan after those failed attempts which could be to Atlanta’s benefit come Sunday. Dallas went for it on 4th and 2 on the DEN 20-yard line one possession after turning the ball over on downs on a 4th and 1 on the DEN 38.
The Atlanta offense hasn’t been great offensively in the first quarter, averaging nearly three points per frame, but the defense has been much better in the early goings with a Top-10 ranking at 3.4 1Q points allowed per game.
The Falcons have allowed just one first quarter TD over their last six games and have covered 1Q +3.5 in five of their last six. We’re riding the Falcons +3.5 (-115) in the first quarter and like this play a little more than the 1Q Over 10 (-115).
