Falcons vs Jaguars Prop Bets: Jags TE Carves Up ATL Secondary

Not above the law

Ever since Trevor Lawrence was a freshman at Clemson, he’s been hailed as one of the sport's next best quarterbacks. But ever since his freshman year at Clemson, results have been rather middling.

The former first-overall pick has had lukewarm results at best in the pros, yet he is often still priced as a surefire stud. Take his touchdown prop for this Sunday, for example. He’s priced +114 to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns but the numbers don't really justify that type of pricing.

In his now 37 starts with the Jaguars, he's had two or more passing touchdowns in just 10 games — good for just a measly 27% hit rate. The first rebuttal would be that his rookie year was marred by the horrendous Urban Meyer experiment, but even removing that subset of games leaves him with just eight 2+ touchdown games across 20 starts — still good for just a 40% hit rate.

On top of that, the Falcons have allowed two or more passing touchdowns just once in their last six games, and just three times in their last 13.

No matter how you slice it, getting anywhere between -110 and -120 Trevor Lawrence odds to go under 1.5 passing touchdowns is +EV.

Trevor Lawrence prop: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at bet365)

Evan almighty

Despite the Atlanta Falcons' defense having been sneakily solid for some time now, they’ve quietly struggled against tight ends during that time. Last season, they allowed the eighth-most yards per game and eight-most receptions per game to tight ends.

In Week 1, they allowed Hayden Hurst to lead his team in targets (7), receptions (4), and receiving yards (41) while allowing the journeyman tight end to find the endzone as well.

They fared well against the Packers in Week 2, but that was largely a product of the Packers relying on two rookie tight ends to fill out that position. But in Week 3, their woes resurfaced, allowing rookie tight end Sam LaPorta to gash them for 84 yards and a touchdown off of eight receptions.

To make Evan Engram odds even better for Sunday, he’s eclipsed the 40.5-45.5 yards his prop is set at in all three of his games this season. With No. 2 wide receiver Zay Jones still out of action and with Ridley potentially losing some trust after his four drops last week, Engram should still see a healthy amount of attention.

Evan Engram prop: Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at PointsBet)

Good riddance

Flipping the script to the other side of the matchup, the Jaguars' defense has had its fair share of struggles containing rushing production from quarterbacks dating back to last year.

During the 2022 season, they allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks at 27.6. This year, things have not looked all that much better.

In Week 1, they allowed Anthony Richardson to get 40 yards on the ground (and a touchdown) and in Week 2, Patrick Mahomes took them on a ride for another 30 yards. Last week things looked a bit better with CJ Stroud accumulating just 14 yards, but the Texans led all game and Stroud was a noted pocket passer in college compared to his peers.

Desmond Ridder odds don't indicate the most production on the ground since taking over the starting duties late last year, but he has shown flashes. Just two weeks ago he had 10 rushes for 39 yards and a touchdown against the Packers and he had a 6-for-38 performance in his first start last year.

Desmond Ridder prop: Over 15.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)