The Carolina Panthers come out of their bye week looking very different than the team we watched two weeks ago, with offensive coordinator Joe Brady fired this past weekend and star RB Christian McCaffrey done for the season (ankle).
The Panthers have lost two straight and three of their last four and welcome the Atlanta Falcons to Bank of America Stadium in Week 14. Atlanta isn’t in much better shape than their NFC South rivals, with a similar 1-3 SU mark in its last four outings.
It’s a late-season matchup only bettors could love. Check out our NFL free picks and predictions for Falcons at Panthers on December 12.
Falcons vs Panthers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Carolina opened as low as -2.5 and went to -3 shortly after hitting the board. Falcons +3 is out there heavily juiced to -118. The total opened at 43.5 points and has dipped to 42.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Falcons vs Panthers predictions
Predictions made on 12/7/2021 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 14, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Falcons vs Panthers game info
• Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Falcons at Panthers betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Falcons: Calvin Ridley WR (Out), Josh Andrews OG (Out), Jonathan Bullard DE (Out), Tyeler Bullard DT (Out), Josh Rosen QB (Out), Richie Grant S (Out), Adetokunbo Ogundeji LB (Out).
Panthers: Matt Barkley QB (Out), Darryl Johnson DE (Out), Frankie Luvu LB (Out), John Miller OG (Out), Kenny Robinson S (Out), Shi Smith WR (Out), Christian McCaffrey RB (Out), Michael Jordan G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Carolina and Atlanta are 3-13-1 Over/Under in their last 17 head-to-head matchups. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Panthers.
Falcons vs Panthers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
These divisional foes played in a forgettable game on Halloween, with the Panthers taking a 19-13 win at Atlanta thanks to four field goals from kicker Zane Gonzalez. Carolina ran the ball 47 times for 203 yards rushing in that victory but has steered away from the run in three of the four games since – a big reason why Brady got the axe.
His pass-happy playbook didn’t jibe with the run-heavy philosophies of head coach Matt Rhule. In the past two games, the Panthers have handed off just 39 times but amassed a total of 181 yards rushing – a respectable 4.6 yards per carry and a success rate of 42.5% on those limited runs.
Even with McCaffrey out of action (nothing new for this offense), Carolina is going to ground-and-pound in Week 14 – no matter what. The Falcons allowed just 57 yards rushing to Tampa Bay last Sunday (more in part to Tom Brady picking them apart with the pass) but got mowed over by the three prior opponents for a collective 392 run yards.
Defensively, Carolina is still among the league’s elite in advanced metrics, despite giving up 26 and 27 points the past two games. The Panthers sit No. 7 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and own an EPA allowed per play of -0.088 (fourth lowest) on the season.
This aggressive stop unit brings extra pass rushers on 33% of opponents’ dropbacks and stirs up pressure on 28.7% of those passing plays – second highest in the NFL – which has manifested itself into 32 sacks. Atlanta has allowed QB Matt Ryan to get sacked a dozen times along with 32 QB hits over the past four contests, including five sacks and 11 QB hits to the Bucs – one of just three teams that blitz more than Carolina.
This one may not be pretty, but if you’re wagering on Carolina you may want to wait and see if this spread dips below the key number of a field goal before doing so. The fewer points you need to lay with this offense the better.
Prediction: Panthers -3 (+100)
Over/Under analysis
The Falcons' offense continues to flounder, mustering 17 points versus Tampa Bay on Sunday and scoring more than three touchdowns only once in the last six games. It’s no surprise that Atlanta has stayed Under the total in all five of those contests.
Carolina is one of the better pass defenses in the league, with a talent-rich secondary that has checked opposing QBs to an average depth of target of just 7.5 yards per pass along with limiting air yards and yards after the catch. The Panthers have also given up only 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards (third-fewest) as the vaunted pass rush doesn’t allow for home run shot to develop.
That means the Falcons must hit the ground hard, not only to have a shot at moving the chains but also to take the pressure of a battered Ryan. Unfortunately, Atlanta doesn’t possess much pop on the run beyond hybrid-WR Cordarrelle Patterson, who leads the team with 489 yards rushing.
Prediction: Under 42.5 (-110)
Best bet
These NFC South foes have stayed below the total in 13 of their past 17 head-to-head clashes (with one push) and with Brady out and Jeff Nixon stepping in as the offensive coordinator, the Panthers’ commitment to the run will likely be gag-inducing.
Nixon, who is a good friend of Rhule’s going back to Baylor, has primarily served as a running backs coach during his career. While the Panthers need some diversity in their passing game as well as an ability to stretch the field, Cam Newton is not the guy to do it.
Newton is completing less than 56% of his throws for an average of only 5.6 yards per attempt. He’ll be far more effective running with the ball against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to rival quarterbacks (286 yards).
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
