If the sting of Week 7’s loss is still lingering, Atlanta Falcons bettors have a chance to get even – or get even deeper – when the apparently-cursed team visits the Carolina Panthers for an NFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football.
The Falcons are 3-point NFL betting underdogs in Charlotte, just a few days removed from another crushing last-second loss in which Atlanta’s ill-timed touchdown in the final minute set the table for a game-winning drive from Detroit.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Panthers on October 29.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Charlotte is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain and game-time temperatures in the high-50s with winds blowing up to 15 mph Thursday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Falcons: Julio Jones WR (Probable), Jaylinn Hawkins S (Questionable), Alex Mack C (Questionable), Takkarist McKinley DE (Out), Russell Gage WR (Questionable).
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Doubtful), Russell Okung T (Doubtful), John Miller G (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings between the Falcons and Panthers. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Panthers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The box score (and some bankrolls) will say the Falcons lost 23-22 as 1-point home favorites to the Lions last Sunday. For betting purposes, however, we need to treat Atlanta with a little more respect.
Had RB Todd Gurley not awkwardly scored that damning touchdown with 1:04 left, the Falcons would have lined up for a chip-shot field goal as time expired and won the game – giving them back-to-back victories since canning coach Dan Quinn. But the Falcons are gonna Falcon. And that’s why this spread is teetering between Atlanta +2.5 and +3 at most books.
The Panthers have lost back-to-back games but continue to play competitive football. They took New Orleans down to the wire in a 27-24 loss as 7-point road underdogs in Week 7, holding the Saints to just two field goals in the second half. Carolina couldn’t play clock-control offense with the way New Orleans was running, with the Saints totaling 138 yards on the ground and 34:41 in time of possession.
Carolina was able to dominate on the turf and chew up more than 33 minutes of TOP in its 24-21 win over Atlanta in Week 5. It should be noted, the Falcons were without star WR Julio Jones for that matchup and QB Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season, passing for just 226 yards, one interception and failing to pass for a single TD – the only game this season he’s been shutout of the end zone.
There’s definitely a stigma when it comes to betting on Atlanta, but this team is anxious to get back out there after Sunday’s flop and rid themselves of that nasty taste. If Atlanta had hung on to win against the Lions, this spread could be as low as +1.5. The Falcons are in a buy-low spot here but are kind of playing their best football of the season – at least for 59 minutes per game.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Carolina could possibly have standout RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday night but given the short week and extended rest after this mid-week contest, the Panthers could play it safe and make sure their best player is 100 percent before rushing him back.
The Panthers offense could use McCaffrey, however, as the rushing totals have dwindled the past two games. Carolina has rushed for a total of 149 yards on 43 carries (3.5 yards per carry) and 58 of those gains have come from QB Teddy Bridgewater scrambling with the football.
The Falcons defense has been improved over the last three outings, giving up just 23 points in each of those games while tightening the bolts on third-down and red-zone defense (also showing some teeth by forcing turnovers). Atlanta has also done a good job limiting the run, allowing 3.6 yards per carry to opposing rushers in that three-game stretch.
The big question is if the Falcons can at least slow down the Panthers’ passing game. Atlanta has been horrendous versus the air attack, including allowing Bridgewater to throw for 313 yards in Week 5. But despite those gaudy passing stats, this defense has been “bend but don’t break”.
The weather is supposed to stink Thursday night in Charlotte, with a 70 percent chance of rain and stronger winds. This total has begun ticking downward, moving from 51 to 50 points, and these divisional foes have played Under in three of their last four matchups and are 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10 overall.
PREDICTION: Under 50 (-110)
Player prop pick
Jones is the focal point of the Panthers pass defense Thursday night, which means more room for fellow wideout Calvin Ridley to operate.
Ridley has scored touchdowns in each of his last two games, including a 4-yard TD reception against the Lions. The 6-foot-1 WR has emerged as Ryan’s top red-zone option, with five of his six touchdowns on the season coming inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
In five career games against Carolina, Ridley has busted the Panthers for four touchdowns and more than 18 yards per reception. He had eight catches for 136 yards and was held out of the end zone in Atlanta’s Week 5 loss to Carolina, but that was without Jones drawing attention on the other side.
PREDICTION: Calvin Ridley touchdown scorer (+118)
Falcons vs Panthers betting card
- Atlanta +3 (-110)
- Under 50 (-110)
- Calvin Ridley touchdown scorer (+118)
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