Another week is full of exciting matchups, and we have a wide group of games to pick from this Sunday, including five in the late slate.
Here, we’re studying the data to find the three best picks to open the scoring in their respective games.
Here are my best three NFL picks and weekly TD props.
Week 15 first touchdown scorer props
- Brian Robinson First Touchdown (+450 at BetMGM)
- Chase Brown First Touchdown (+470 at FanDuel)
- Tyreek Hill First Touchdown (+950 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 15 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Brian Robinson
Best odds: +450 at BetMGM
The Washington Commanders are favored by over a score against the Saints, which means that picking a Washington player is probably the smart move here. There’s only one place to start there, and that’s with Brian Robinson, who is primed for a big Sunday.
Only one team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than the New Orleans Saints, which gives us hope for a Robinson touchdown, especially given that he’s scored eight times in 10 games so far this season. He scored in the Commanders’ last game against the Titans and got heavy usage with 16 touches, his sixth game of 16+ touches this season.
First TD prop bet #2: Chase Brown
Best odds: +470 at FanDuel
The Cincinnati Bengals played well last week, and Joe Burrow is putting up an incredible season despite the struggle of his team. They’re favored to beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, but they might have to do it in a slightly different way. The Titans have been excellent against the pass this season, allowing fewer yards than anyone through the air.
That leads us to take Chase Brown, the Bengals’ running back who has nine touchdowns on the season. He’s utilized both on the ground and with short passes and has been very good in recent weeks, with 14 carries and six receptions last week, which was also his second successive week with a touchdown.
First TD prop bet #3: Tyreek Hill
Best odds: +950 at DraftKings
The Miami Dolphins are still just about in playoff contention and face a Houston Texans team who are struggling down the stretch. The Dolphins’ offense looks otherworldly when Tua Tagovailoa is fit and firing and they’ve popped of late, winning four of five games.
It’s no surprise that Tyreek Hill has also looked far better since the return of Tua, it also appears like he’s managing the wrist injury that has hampered him all season. He’s scored in four of his past five games and is getting by the week. Last week’s 10-115-1 performance against the Jets was only his second 100+ rushing yard game of the season. He has a great chance of opening the scoring against a Texans’ defense who have been torched of late.
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