George Pickens Odds and Props: Open the Curtains

All of a sudden, the Pittsburgh Steelers have pulled themselves out of the bottom of the AFC standings and have a real shot at the playoffs if a few things go their way. First and foremost, however, Mike Tomlin and Co. will need to take care of a Baltimore Ravens team that’s resting its starters.

The only reason the Steelers are even in this position is thanks to Mason Rudolph igniting a stale offense and utilizing the plethora of talented playmakers around him. Chief among them has been George Pickens.

You can see how I’m betting on the George Pickens odds as we dive into the Week 18 NFL odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more Saturday NFL coverage, check out our Steelers vs. Ravens predictions and our Steelers vs. Ravens props.

George Pickens prop picks

• Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Over 47.5 receiving yards + Over 3.5 receptions + Mason Rudolph Over 189.5 passing yards (+240 at bet365)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

George Pickens prop pick

Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110)

Without a doubt, George Pickens is one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL. The second-year receiver has Pro Bowl talent, but his young career has been surrounded by questions about effort and if he’s willing to put the team first.

In reality, it would seem the former second-round pick out of Georgia was just fed up with the Pittsburgh Steelers doing the same thing over and over — letting Matt Canada call plays and trotting Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky out at QB — and expecting different results.

Now with Mike Sullivan calling plays and Mason Rudolph throwing him the rock, Pickens looks like one of the biggest game-changers in the league. Pittsburgh will need that to continue to secure a win against a Baltimore Ravens defense that’s been among the best.

While Baltimore does rank second in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback this season, with the one-seed in the AFC already locked up, multiple defensive starters are unlikely to play Saturday. Starters already listed as out on defense include cornerback Marlon Humphrey and linebacker Patrick Queen, with safety Kyle Hamilton and cornerback Brandon Stephens listed as questionable. If Hamilton and Stephens do take the field, it’s unlikely they’ll play long.

To make matters tougher for this Ravens defense, backup safety Daryl Worley is listed as out and backup cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Arthur Maulet are both questionable. Even if a handful of starters play the entire game for Mike Macdonald’s defense, it’ll be thin in the secondary. 

That’s got to have Pickens licking his lips given the uptick in production he’s seen since the Steelers fired Canada. On the season, Pickens is averaging 71.3 receiving yards per game, but since Sullivan took over as play-caller in Week 12, he’s been averaging 107.2 receiving yards per game.

Pittsburgh’s offense has also jumped from 25th in EPA per play and 26th in EPA per dropback through the first 11 weeks of the season to 17th per play and 14th per dropback from Week 12 to 17. There’s a clear difference in the offensive approach and nobody has benefited more than Pickens, who has been given far more downfield opportunities as of late.

Another massive factor in Pittsburgh’s offense becoming more efficient and Pickens’ production skyrocketing has been the rapport he’s had with Rudolph over their two games together. Rudolph, unlike Pickett and Trubisky, has been willing to let the ball loose and given Pickens a chance to make plays.

With Rudolph at the helm over the last two weeks, the Steelers offense is third in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback with Pickens being an unstoppable force. Over his last two games, Pickens is averaging 163 receiving yards and seeing 7.5 targets per game, as opposed to the 6.5 targets per game he saw over the previous 14 games.

The ball is coming his way more and in more advantageous situations, but obviously, it’s a tiny sample size and came against a pair of lesser defenses — Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks. 

However, with the Ravens resting starters and injuries in its secondary, Pickens can continue to be a difference-maker and reach at least 48 receiving yards for the ninth time this season, and the fifth time since Sullivan began calling plays. Weather may be the biggest deterrent for Pickens and Rudolph in this game.

Prop: Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

George Pickens same-game parlay

George Pickens Over 47.5 receiving yards

George Pickens Over 3.5 receptions

Mason Rudolph Over 189.5 passing yards

+240 at bet365

If the Steelers want to win this game, Pickens is going to need a steady dose of targets against this injury-ravaged secondary. Through 16 games this year, he’s averaging 3.9 receptions per game on 6.6 targets. 

Pickens has done more with less when it comes to racking up yards on fewer catches. He’s one of only two 1,000-yard receivers in the NFL averaging over 18 yards per reception and he’s the only pass catcher in the league to hit the 1,000-yard mark while having fewer than 65 receptions.

With that being said, there’s been a clear change in approach since Sullivan took over play-calling. Pickens is averaging 4.3 receptions per game with Sullivan calling plays after averaging just 3.7 receptions with Canada. And now with Rudolph under center, his receptions per game has gone up to 5.5. 

Rudolph knows where his bread is buttered and wants to get his best receiver the ball as frequently as he can and that’s why his numbers have looked so good through two starts. Since Rudolph took over as the starter in Week 16, he’s fourth in EPA per play among quarterbacks and first in CPOE. 

He's averaging 282 passing yards per game and has the Steelers' highest yardage passing performance of the season; 290 against the Bengals.

It’s reasonable to assume at some point he’ll come back down to earth, but in a game where Baltimore will be without many of its best defenders and Pittsburgh is playing to keep its season alive, Rudolph can continue to instill hope in the Steel City.

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