After getting embarrassed in prime-time last Sunday, the New York Giants will look to scrape together some self-respect as they travel to Arizona to take on Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals as 5.5-point NFL odds road favorites.
Considering how motivated the Giants’ defense will be vs. one of the worst offensive lines in football (and an offense that is not built to play behind the sticks), should bettors be targeting the Cardinals’ team total Under in Week 2 odds?
Find out in my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Cardinals on September 17.
Giants vs Cardinals odds
Giants vs Cardinals predictions
The New York Giants might have the most motivated defense heading into Week 2. After getting blown out 40-0 at home on Sunday Night Football, the Giants will be heading to dryer conditions Sunday and have a great matchup against an Arizona Cardinals offense that finished 30th in EPA/play and success rate in Week 1.
Joshua Dobbs will start at quarterback once more for the Cardinals. Arizona managed just 16 points vs. the Commanders last week, and a lot of that had to do with three Washington turnovers. Dobbs attempted 33 passes and turned that into just 133 yards, and only the Bengals had fewer first downs than Arizona in Week 1.
The Cards also failed to score an offensive touchdown and Dobbs has been with the team (that turned over its entire coaching staff) for just three weeks. He ranked 26th in EPA/play on third downs out of 30 QBs with at least 10 plays and also ranked in the Bottom 5 in both CPOE and success rate.
This is going to be a low-scoring game with a sub-40 total, and the Giants are already dealing with offensive line issues themselves. Starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and his backup Matt Peart are both undergoing MRIs following Sunday’s defeat, and QB Daniel Jones is coming off being sacked a whopping seven times in Week 1.
With two projected poor offenses, each side could be seeing some long fields Sunday in Arizona. The Arizona O-line came into the season ranked as the second-worst unit according to Pro Football Focus, and Commanders defensive end Montez Sweat took advantage of that in Week 1 by racking up five total tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. He single-handily won the game for Washington, meaning Giants pass rusher Dexter Lawrence could have a massive impact on Sunday.
With poor quarterback play, a porous O-line, and a heavily motivated New York defense, it’s tough to place faith in an Arizona side that is giving 5.5 points at home to a team that appeared in the playoffs last season. Jones will be more careful with the ball than Sam Howell was last week, and the Cards should be given fewer gifts when it comes to field position in Week 2.
My best bet: Arizona team total Under 16.5 (-115 at bet365)
Giants vs Cardinals same-game parlay
The Cardinals are facing a motivated defense and are still lacking any skill to get the ball downfield on offense.
Isaiah Hodgins finished third among Giants receivers in snaps in Week 1 and fumbled away his lone catch. With the game script not in his favor and likely the fifth option in the passing game, THE BLITZ has him projected for just 27.96 yards.
Meanwhile, Daniel Jones' legs are still good and bettors saw that in the early parts of SNF before things got ugly. His legs are likely the second-best part of this offense behind Saquon Barkley, and a TD at +200 is decent value as THE BLITZ is projecting 0.47 TDs from the QB.
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Giants vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
The Giants were listed at -4 on the lookahead lines, but have reopened as a 5.5-point favorite after getting embarrassed in Week 1. That tells you what the oddsmakers think of the Cardinals, as while they were more competitive in Week 1, that had more to do with Washington’s generosity with turnovers than the overall performance of Johnathan Gannon’s team.
In terms of the total, the Over has seen some early money as it's been bumped from 38.5 to as high as 40.
Looking at props and usage, Arizona tight end Zach Ertz had 10 targets (six catches) on 33 of 34 dropbacks last week, yet turned those receptions into just 21 yards. In fact, the passing game was virtually non-existent as not a single Cardinals receiver topped 35 receiving yards.
It’s tough to judge the New York offense thanks to Week 1's lopsided score and the weather, but Darren Waller looked like Jones’ favorite target against Dallas. The tight end had a 22% target share and led the team in receiving yards with 36 on five targets.
Ertz and Connor should continue to get the majority of looks as Dobbs just isn’t a great downfield passer, and I’d expect a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley on Sunday along with a bigger stat line from Waller.
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Giants vs Cardinals game info
Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
Date: | Sunday, September 17, 2023 |
Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
TV: | NFL Network |
Opening odds: | Cardinals +4.5, 39.5 |
Giants vs Cardinals latest injuries
Giants vs Cardinals weather
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