The New York Giants head to La-La Land for a date with the Los Angeles Chargers. However, with a spread this big, bookies don’t expect a Hollywood ending. The Giants could be forced to start third-string quarterback Jake Fromm – a downtick for an offense that just can’t produce points.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, is coming off an impressive road win at Cincinnati but is one of the league’s most two-faced teams and runs the risk of a lookahead spot with a rivalry game against Kansas City looming next Thursday.
Here are our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Giants at Chargers on December 12.
Giants vs Chargers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Los Angeles opened as a 10-point favorite and jumped to -10.5 at most books with news that New York could be down to its QB3 for Week 14. The total opened at 45.5 points and quickly sunk to as low as 44 with that same QB situation impacting the Over/Under action.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Chargers predictions
Predictions made on 12/08/2021 at 10:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Chargers game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Giants at Chargers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Giants: Collin Johnson WR (Out), Oshane Ximines LB (Out), Adoree' Jackson CB (Out), Daniel Jones QB (Out), Kadarius Toney WR (Out).
Chargers: Breiden Fehoko DT (Out), Derwin James S (Out), Larry Rountree RB (Out), Easton Stick QB (Out), Kyler Fackrell LB (Out), Alohi Gilman S (Out), Asante Samuel CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Non-conference NFL games have posted a 21-40-1 Over/Under count so far in 2021, playing below the total at a 66% clip. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Chargers.
Giants vs Chargers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
This sizable spread adds up. New York’s offense is in bad shape, both physically and schematically. Even with starter Daniel Jones under center, the Giants were a pop-gun attack that couldn’t find a way to crack the end zone. With Jones doubtful (neck) and Mike Glennon in concussion protocols, QB duties could fall on Jake Fromm.
The second-year pro - and former Georgia standout - is not set up to succeed should he get the nod against the Bolts on the road. New York’s offense is already running under interim coordinator Freddie Kitchens, and the three top receiving targets are all banged-up. Adding to this turmoil is a COVID outbreak that has infected QB coach Jerry Schuplinski, who is vital in preparing Fromm (or Glennon) for this tall task.
Los Angeles looked great in all three facets of the game in Week 13, with impressive performances on offense, defense and special teams in the 41-22 win at Cincinnati last Sunday. The opening frame was very chaotic and the Bengals nearly battled back, so we don’t want to overreact to the one-sided result too much. That said, L.A.’s opponent is in such bad shape that it’s tough to deny the Bolts as a bet against the spread.
The Chargers are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, splitting wins and losses in each of their last six games while going just 2-4 ATS in that span. The Bolts also run the risk of a massive lookahead spot – checking out on the Giants – by planning ahead to that Thursday Night Football fight with the Chiefs in Week 15.
If – and when – Fromm is announced as the starter, this spread will shoot up. So, if you are betting the Bolts, get down on Los Angeles now as low as you can. WynnBet has Los Angeles -10 flat on the board as of Wednesday morning, if that’s an option. But I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on the point spread.
Prediction: Chargers -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under opened at 45.5 on Sunday night and with news that Glennon could be out and that Jones was not healthy enough for Week 14, the number started sinking. As of this writing, the total is down to 44 with some books still hanging 45 points.
We’ve already talked about the Giants’ anemic offense, which ranks 28th in DVOA and sits near the bottom of the bowl in EPA per play (-0.059). Things have gotten worse for New York recently – despite the return of many top skill players – totaling a mere 32 points the past three games.
Los Angeles is not a defensive juggernaut by any means, but owns a hefty win probability around 83% for this non-conference matchup. That means the Bolts, when considering the spread, should be up big in the second half, which lends itself to more runs, slower tempo, and safer play calling.
The Giants’ lone bright spot is the defense, which sits a respectable 13th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and 14th in EPA allowed per dropback, so the Bolts will face some pushback in terms of pass defense.
Also, with Kansas City waiting in the wings just four days from Sunday, head coach Brandon Staley could start yanking first-teamers in the fourth quarter. That could make spread bettors nervous but it will put a smile on anyone who bet the Under.
Prediction: Under 45 (-110)
Best bet
Even if Glennon gets the thumbs up to play in Week 14, this is still a stagnant offense and a team playing its second straight road outing while also going through the COVID ringer, with constant monitoring and testing before making the cross-country hike to California.
If the oddsmakers are correct, New York will be playing from behind in the second half. That means the offense will go pass-heavy and put the weight on Glennon or Fromm to move the chains.
Los Angeles got up quick on Cincinnati last week – jumping out to a 24-0 lead – and forced Joe Burrow and the Bengals to go one dimensional with the pass. That gave L.A.’s pass rush the green light, panning out to four sacks and 10 QB hits.
And FYI: non-conference NFL games have gone 21-40-1 Over/Under so far this season – 66% Unders. Just sayin’.
Pick: Under 45 (-110)
